trend following delusion shattered
- Thread starter hank rollins
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:eek: 
Quote from marketsurfer:
reviving this thread, since recently while perusing the internet, i happened to run across ed seykota's writings on the concept of trend. as you know, mr. seykota is held in high esteem by the popularizers of the trend myth-- SO i was very surprised to read the following gems on his website:
"there is no such thing as current trend, when we speak of trends we are necessarily projecting our own definitions"
AND
"Trend does not exist in the now and the phrase, the trend, has no inherent meaning"
i am indeed happy to see that this legend and myself apparently have more in common on our definition of trend than i was led to believe by the popularizers of the myth.
http://www.seykota.com/tribe/TSP/Trends/index.htm
best,
surfer
speaking of ES, here's a bit on crankdot.com regarding his "radial momentum" theory-- he won the cranky prize, which is the lesser of the crankier and crankiest prizes ! in this contest, less is better......
http://www.crank.net/antigravity.html
enjoy,
surfer
Hmm. It seems that even Shakespeare was something of a trend follower:
"There is a tide in the affairs of men,
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows, and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat;
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures."
Brutus. Julius Caesar Act IV Scene 3: Within the Tent of Brutus.
"There is a tide in the affairs of men,
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows, and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat;
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures."
Brutus. Julius Caesar Act IV Scene 3: Within the Tent of Brutus.
The question is, does marketsurfer actually exist? I'd say that the supporting evidence is tenuous, at best.Quote from ProfLogic:
If Surfer reads this he'll say Shakespeare didn't exist either . . . or Brutus . . . or Julius Caesar . . . or Rome . . . or for that matter anything that happened previous to yesterday.
Quote from ProfLogic:
If Surfer reads this he'll say Shakespeare didn't exist either . . . or Brutus . . . or Julius Caesar . . . or Rome . . . or for that matter anything that happened previous to yesterday.
cute! i am sure you are expecting a pithy reply to the above, sorry to disappoint. shakespeare, brutus, et al no longer exist, and the same can be said for trends after one enters the trade. they exist purely in the past, and have ZERO relevance on the future. just like shakespeare will never write additional prose, 6 or 60 moves in one direction does not foretell the next move. as one of my favorite post modern philosophers, joe strummer, so aptly stated---"the future is unwritten, so know your rights"
trend following is a <i> feel good religion.</i> hence the popularity of the trend following book--- ( not to take away from the author's writing skills, which are considerable)---however the premise is fatally flawed, relying on anecdotal, survivorship biased data.
it feels great to buy in the present direction of the market. unfortunately, successful trades do not feel good when entered, in fact, they often seem anti- intuitive and troubling prior to entry.
market trends only exist in the past, if it could be shown that any series of moves in a particular direction would foretell a move in the similar direction, we would have exploited this long ago. friends and associates of mine constantly test wide ranges of markets trying to find edges, never has an edge been discovered in what is generally refereed to as "trend following".
regards,
surf
If anyone is interested in keeping this thread located in the TA board, please post technical analysis. In fact, since its title is "Trend Following Delusion Shattered," please post data and analysis that will shatter my delusion. Thanks!
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