trend following delusion shattered

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Huh? How do you drop 40 percent?? Simple - you are an asshole if that happens that quick.

First - summer is a bad time to find a trend, second, you are an anti TA shit head.

I make very good money on trends alone, as do many real investors

Quote from hank rollins:

even the heroes can't seem to do it...... trend follow



http://www.ljmfund.com/content/PDFs...Jan_31_2005.pdf


don't feel so bad that you cant follow the trend--the great john henry--hero to trend followers the world over reported a -2.89 % return, a sharpe ration of -.11 ( abysmal !) and a drawdown of 40.2%. if mr. henry CAN"T FIND THE TREND.... how do you expect to ?

wake up friends !
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Quote from Bitstream:

the trendys dont tell u to buy new highs and sell new lows, those are idiots. u can do it in momo trades but not on issues that seem to pattern a trend; retracements is where u pos should be initiated and when u do so if u are proven wrong u'll know it immediately sice u are in at the trendline and if it is violated u are out.

surf, just because u dont have either the skills or the patience to trade the trend doesnt mean it is not a profitable approach...infact i make all my money buyin'/sellin' shit that gaps and keep trendin' in it's direction. why dont u stop bashin' everythin' u cant do cuz of your own limitations.
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not bashing, bro. i was a big TA guy and trend believer at one point in my evilution, till i decided to focus only on testable, niche methods with repeatable edges.

i still look at charts, but not for the same reason you do.

hey, if buying gap ups works for you, go for it!

surf:)
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

one can learn many things from studying the past in a scientific, statistically valid manner. unfortunately trend following, as defined in the best seller of the same name, does not fit these parameters. in fact, when tested, trend following is a vastly inferior strategy.

yes, of course, our methods rely on past data, but this data is viewed in a statistically valid manner--not simply buying new highs, selling new lows as the trendys preach. TA is like an Xray--it shows one what's in "there"--but does little to cure the problem. to cure the problem, one needs to know the underlying factors that create what is seen on the film. hope this makes sense.

surf
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It does to me. You keep referring to tired definitions of the "Trend" and as usual and totally ignore anything new. Buying new highs and selling new lows isn't a relevant practice of any Trend Reader I know. That is suicidal break-out trading and the action of someone who can't read trends.

A friend of mine was diagnosed about 18 months ago with colon cancer and was told by an older highly respected local doctor that there wasn't anything he could do but make his last year or so as comfortable as possible. He went on a search for another opinion. Long story short . . . 18 months later he is cancer free and kicked my butt at tennis last week. If he would have listened to the "local" doctor and his antiquated views he probably would have been dead by now.

Good thing some of us in this environment don't rely on the opinions of others to succeed in our trading.
 
definetly...the bias this guy keep showin' is nothin' short of amazin'; always pushin' his own delusions by purposely selectin' the worst and most dangerous approach to trend tradin', and ignorin' the most profitable and less risky techniques, this just to justify his conclusion all of us cant profit from it. it gets into my skin.
Quote from ProfLogic:

It does to me. You keep referring to tired definitions of the "Trend" and as usual and totally ignore anything new. Buying new highs and selling new lows isn't a relevant practice of any Trend Reader I know. That is suicidal break-out trading and the action of someone who can't read trends.

A friend of mine was diagnosed about 18 months ago with colon cancer and was told by an older highly respected local doctor that there wasn't anything he could do but make his last year or so as comfortable as possible. He went on a search for another opinion. Long story short . . . 18 months later he is cancer free and kicked my butt at tennis last week. If he would have listened to the "local" doctor and his antiquated views he probably would have been dead by now.

Good thing some of us in this environment don't rely on the opinions of others to succeed in our trading.
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Quote from ProfLogic:

It does to me. You keep referring to tired definitions of the "Trend" and as usual and totally ignore anything new. Buying new highs and selling new lows isn't a relevant practice of any Trend Reader I know. That is suicidal break-out trading and the action of someone who can't read trends.

A friend of mine was diagnosed about 18 months ago with colon cancer and was told by an older highly respected local doctor that there wasn't anything he could do but make his last year or so as comfortable as possible. He went on a search for another opinion. Long story short . . . 18 months later he is cancer free and kicked my butt at tennis last week. If he would have listened to the "local" doctor and his antiquated views he probably would have been dead by now.

Good thing some of us in this environment don't rely on the opinions of others to succeed in our trading.
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wow, i am happy your friend survived and is thriving.

show me your method in a testable form, and i'll be happy to look at it. and NO--attending a seminar is not what i mean. in fact, why not share it here in a public forum so that it can be properly evaluated.

i define terms as they are defined commonly---not in an esoteric manner. yes, it is entirely possible, though not probable, that you discovered something new.

surf
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

You need to associate with a more industrious and intelligent group of friends. Positive reinforcement leads to positive outcomes.
Didn't your parents tell you that "can't" doesn't belong in anyones vocabulary?
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In a previous incarnation were you Charlie dow?
 
Isn't it wonderful?
A thread about 'trends' but what 'trends' are being alleged as valid by trend followers?

Ones that go from a top to a bottom or vice versa? Well apparently trend followers don't pick tops and bottoms. So may be it can only be part of any such 'trend' .. somewhat after it starts, yes?

Is it a grand underlying trend? From yesterday to tomorrow perhaps? Yes or no? Or is the trend decided by MA crossovers? Now thats an 'oldie'.

Or even, is it a secret formula?

Well I don't use the notion of 'trend' because there is whole market day (eg YM) of moves to utilize. Are these mini-trends? Well hell I won't argue against a terminology differing from mine.

But one thing is sure. You of course have to play the gyrations; buy the upmoves and sell the downmoves.
So it will pay to stay so can play the day for all the money you can take away.
:)
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

wow, i am happy your friend survived and is thriving.

show me your method in a testable form, and i'll be happy to look at it. and NO--attending a seminar is not what i mean. in fact, why not share it here in a public forum so that it can be properly evaluated.

i define terms as they are defined commonly---not in an esoteric manner. yes, it is entirely possible, though not probable, that you discovered something new.

surf
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I offered to give you all the details numerous times before and you've declined each time. Regardless of where, the information and parameters were always the same so you could have done your testing at your leisure. A public forum is one thing but ET is anything but. You've had your hand in the demise of more than your share of "public displays of sharing information" so that case is closed.

I've since had a change of heart over the last year where speculators are concerned and have decided to sit back and just trade what you say can't work and teach the occasional university based ag-marketing class to individuals that KNOW trends exist. Try to tell a family or professional farmer or rancher that trends or seasonality don't exist and you would be laughed out of a room.

Everyone that EVER said that there is, "More money in trading than teaching IF the method is successful", was absolutely correct. When one trades successfully then the teaching one does on top of that trading is solely for the soul.
 
Okay I have a minute or so to waste, why not waste it here?

If anyone wants to take the time to go back to the first post, you will notice it is by "Hank Rollins" an alias of MarketSurfer. God knows there are more aliases on the thread but this tickles me as recently MarketSurfer informed us that he will no longer post the Surf Report, a tragic loss to all. Now I have to ask the obvious question(s). Why, if "trend following" is delusion, would anyone care to discuss the matter? If any of you had a viable alternative, would you not just trade it, and make money? Would you want to disprove the concept publicly, thus motivating a lot of other folks to look for the alternative that is working for you now? Obviously not...So what is the REAL reason that MarketSurfer would start the thread under an alias? Talk about obvious...

So lets review. The guy (MarketSurfer) has already blown out his account once using an approach that he labeled "Neo Gann", then more recently he informs us that he will no longer post the "Surf Report".....What do you think thats about? Anybody awake here and sharp enough to pick it up?

You have to acknowledge the guy's inventivness. Really all he is doing is trying to get YOU FOLKS to supply him with research free of charge....Here is the characteristic challenge and quote...


"show me your method in a testable form, and i'll be happy to look at it."

and ironically here is the same approach from a moderator

"If anyone is interested in keeping this thread located in the TA board, please post technical analysis. In fact, since its title is "Trend Following Delusion Shattered," please post data and analysis that will shatter my delusion. Thanks!"

So basically the idea is to engage our egos. If we believe in our approach why not "show everyone just how sharp we are"

Personally moderator (sir or madam) I could care less what you do with this thread..

As for Marketsurfer and anyone else for that matter, I trade using trends. It is simply one way to make money. In answer to the comment "If I flip a coin 7 times and it comes up heads, does that mean we are in a trend" the obvious answer is yes. Further, one can say the trend started when you saw the result of the second flip. Once you saw that coin display a head, you were in a short term trend.......Betting it that way would have made money. How would betting it as if "trend were an illusion" work? Obviously not as well...

Steve
 
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