Trading NQ via Price Action

[k p]

Not taking it means you're the gambler, not the casino! Can the dealer at a blackjack table in Vegas step back and say, "I don't really like the looks of that guy, I'm not gonna deal this hand"? I don't think so.

I should also add that this is an excellent point that I want to make sure you know I haven't overlooked. Its at the core of having a trading plan and working it properly.

Given that I've added a few filters, and given that I'm taking trades off overnight levels in addition to my regular RET entries, I just haven't worked out enough yet if these trades do have a positive expectancy. So I just gotta solve this part first and then I can work it! I am not just focusing on one thing, but got a few on the go, so I gotta make sure that I'm building metrics for each individually.

 

[bh_prop]

So . . . the new rules test marginal and tomorrow you go on sim, the new rules test well and tomorrow you resume trading live?

You are not ready for live trades, please just do it in sim and work some execution discipline into your routine. You will find that to be plenty challenging without the emotional fear of real $$ loss clouding every second you are in a trade. You may even find that emotion is still there while on sim but over time it will dissipate.

 

[k p]

So . . . the new rules test marginal and tomorrow you go on sim, the new rules test well and tomorrow you resume trading live?

You are not ready for live trades, please just do it in sim and work some execution discipline into your routine. You will find that to be plenty challenging without the emotional fear of real $$ loss clouding every second you are in a trade. You may even find that emotion is still there while on sim but over time it will dissipate.

My hunch is actually that SIM would be incredibly easy from an emotional stand point, but of course I have no facts to back this up.

It certainly is true that one day of testing in SIM means absolutely nothing, just like one day of losses means nothing to a trading plan.

Let me think about all of this some more.

 

[Buster 1956]

KP, Im new to ET and have been following this thread. when I joined ET I was looking to refine my trading. I downloaded DBs pdf on SLA/ Wykoff, and did it ever open my eyes it is so simple its scary but when you put the whole picture together ie weekly daily 4hr etc the pic is very clear. ( to me anyway) The purpose of my post is to suggest that you might want to look at a larger time frame than a 1 min. chart to take your trades from. When I tried to trade those it just whip sawed me around. I now trade a 610 tic chart with a 15 min as sort of a conformation. I will only trade the extremes of the charts with my D / S lines drawn in. yesterday and today I missed both the shorts yesterday starting at 9.46 et and today starting at 10.22 et. as both days I was on the phone and when I realized what was going on I just let them go. How ever I did get both longs yesterday and today, yesterday started at 10.21 et and got out at 2.26 et todays long at 11.31 and held till12.32 as both trades were taken from the DL. I will put my stop 1.5 pts below the DL if Im wrong I followed my rules, I wont move my stop till the 1st retracement as we know how the algos can get crazy at times so I let price get a little traction first. I think part of trading ( for me anyway) was to find a clear picture ie chart settings that make sense to a person. Hopefully by posting we can all help each other as I still have much to learn but after 3 years of trading SLA is now my method. I forgot to mention I trade the NQ.

 

[Redneck]

Greetings,

I believe Kp is going through a transitional phase of self discovery, learning, and change. The process takes a goodly amount of time to change beliefs and our psyche. Especially long held deeply ingrained beliefs which are successfully used in our everyday lives. This is especially true in trading wherein some beneficial beliefs held as sacred in life, are inappropriate for trading and can have dire consequences to ones trading. For example, beliefs such as; "what is right, and what is wrong" need to be deeply and conscientiously reexamined, when operating in a probabilistic environment such as trading. Further, as Douglas says:

"You can't assume that learning about something new, and even agreeing with it, is the same thing as believing it at a level where you can consistently act on it."

Professional trading is one of the toughest skills to master on earth. I very much admire his persistence, his tenacity, and his courage in this all too very public forum.

All these things take time...their own sweet time,.....and each in his/her own time.

KDASFTG

To add

Get your ass on SIM already..., and quit fighting it




I would lay odds

Every successful trader can SIM trade

Absolutely no aspiring trader - who can't SIM trade successfully - can trade live successfully


Ego and stubbornness are real bitches

RN

 

[k p]

KP, Im new to ET and have been following this thread. when I joined ET I was looking to refine my trading. I downloaded DBs pdf on SLA/ Wykoff, and did it ever open my eyes it is so simple its scary but when you put the whole picture together ie weekly daily 4hr etc the pic is very clear. ( to me anyway) The purpose of my post is to suggest that you might want to look at a larger time frame than a 1 min. chart to take your trades from. When I tried to trade those it just whip sawed me around. I now trade a 610 tic chart with a 15 min as sort of a conformation. I will only trade the extremes of the charts with my D / S lines drawn in. yesterday and today I missed both the shorts yesterday starting at 9.46 et and today starting at 10.22 et. as both days I was on the phone and when I realized what was going on I just let them go. How ever I did get both longs yesterday and today, yesterday started at 10.21 et and got out at 2.26 et todays long at 11.31 and held till12.32 as both trades were taken from the DL. I will put my stop 1.5 pts below the DL if Im wrong I followed my rules, I wont move my stop till the 1st retracement as we know how the algos can get crazy at times so I let price get a little traction first. I think part of trading ( for me anyway) was to find a clear picture ie chart settings that make sense to a person. Hopefully by posting we can all help each other as I still have much to learn but after 3 years of trading SLA is now my method. I forgot to mention I trade the NQ.

Hey Buster... yes... I for sure look at the higher time frames as well, but its true I probably don't put as much emphasis into them. When you look at the fact that we broke above that long term channel we were in, there was money to be made in taking long. So I think if a legit trade sets up, you gotta take it. The channel lines don't mean that we have to turn back down towards the mean. Heck, we've even seen new and steeper channels forming now over the past few years. This even gives me a short bias, thinking eventually we have to drop, but even now that it looked like we might be dropping, traders keep pushing price back up. So in a sense I follow more of the immediate action, but trying to keep my mind on where I am in the trend.

 

[k p]

I would lay odds

Every successful trader can SIM trade

Absolutely no aspiring trader - who can't SIM trade successfully - can trade live successfully

Ego and stubbornness are real bitches

RN

Well darnit... that is pretty much the entire expert crew in the Journals forum saying the same thing!!!

Ego I can put aside, the stubbornness sure is a bitch.

 

[Buster 1956]

Keep at it, dont be afraid to change your chart settings, but like RN said use the sim till it becomes second nature then when you go live it will be easier. keep telling yourself I can do this cuz if you think you cant you wont.

 

[eminiman414]

Initially sim wasn't so easy for me as I knew my results would push me to or prevent me from going live. So even in sim there was a psychological battle to do well so I can go live (exiting early/not taking trades I should because I won the last one). So it was ok I made some money (in sim) if I do this enough I can go live all the while passing on trades (good trades) in order to keep the previous positive result in order to convince myself I can trade live. It wasn't fear of losing money it was fear of can I do this, will I ever go live??? Regardless of anything without a plan whether in sim or live you really have nothing but guessing and luck.

 

[Redneck]

Ego I can put aside,

the stubbornness sure is a bitch.

To many..., unknowingly..., and unfortunately - they are the same

Not an indictment - rather a fact

It is up to the individual to determine whether.., and why - it is

RN