Sigh... no trades... but here is what I was seeing. Never mind the stuff before the open... just playing around.
O - Going into the open, we now have an uptrend but drop below initially. The down wave is just as strong as the up wave. (thanks to emini for his explanation just a few days ago... this has helped immensely)
A - By the time we get to here, we have that nice higher low below. I hesitated putting this trade on because the bars overlap so much, and because we are essentially in the middle of this overnight range, but this is where the trade should go, and it would fill 2 mins later. On the plus side, this overnight range is wide enough, and there is plenty of room to make points to test the overnight high.
B - I mark this in, a tricky trade because I'm shorting an uptrend, but I do like to play the overnight levels. (there is a better explanation of this down below at J)
C - I would be inclined to short here again because if it fills, this would be a lower high. My ultimate stop would be 3.5 points away, above that previous high at 23. This stop would hold and a BE exit could be made or even a couple of points. Hard to say what I would do in the moment, but the chart clearly shows what the market is doing, and the stop would hold and price would drop regardless of my reaction to it.
D - So here is the thing. Coming up to here again we see traders unable to penetrate, but the lows are each higher lows below. So the game plan is to either buy the first RET above the breakthrough, or sell below on the first RET after going down, breaking the DL that I draw along the rising lows.
I'm not feeling the best today... so I went back to bed, and of course I'm a little upset that I'm not taking trades, so no point in watching. Given what I see up to this point, I favor a break up, but I know that bouncing off this R level is also likely. No point in forecasting, just follow price and let the traders decide which way they want to go.
E - So coming back, the rest of all of this is now hindsight, but if I just apply rules, here is what could be done. This is the first RET to sell after price rejects 4323 four times, and here is the first RET. Trade would fill 2 bars later but never run the risk of being stopped out.
F - Exit could be made here based on the higher low and break of the SL.
G - We have the same thing here again as above, a resistance level, along with higher lows below.
H - This short here now clearly shows lower highs, dropping below the DL, so good enough for at least a few points if the short was taken.
J - Once again, playing the overnight levels, and just buying above the bar that rejects. Going against the down trend is tricky, but hey, if I think in terms of a series of trades, now that I know exactly what I'm looking for, applying context, and having a firm grasp of entry and stop, I think these trades do have a positive expectancy. If it fills then we are clearly rejecting going lower, even if just momentarily. I might not even have to hold for the full stop below the low of this bar because often these trades when they work, they work instantly. Just like up above at B, when the trade fills, it never comes back up again until a profit of at least 5 points can be realized.
K - First this level holds up as resistance again, but a few minutes later we have a breakthrough. Even if I would think to short again below here because I am showing shorting below resistance levels, a trade at 1 point below these bars wouldn't fill, so no harm done. But to be honest, the context of today tells me that after rejecting the OL quite strongly below, we should be heading back up to the top of the range, so the short wouldn't be on my radar.
EDIT.... Actually.. I have to update this point. I would only take a REV trade below a bar like this at a key level, like an overnight high or low. Here is a just a minor resistance level and hence a short would require a RET first, and 1 point below the RET, so here a short never sets up.
L - So after we break through, wait for the first RET, which is here, and buy 1 point above. Yup..... works again.
SUMMARY
I wasn't even going to post today since I didn't actually do anything, but perhaps if I'm forced to write it down, then I have to think about it and explain what I'm looking at in terms of rules, and if I'm explaining the rules, then there is a better chance that they will solidify for me and I will be able to act on them. So by sharing with everyone else, I could be helping myself.
My problem is that I want to make sure to have a few good days. I know there will be losing days, but I also know that I will have to be able to sit through 3, 4 or even 5 bad trades and not be phased by it if I have a backtested plan that works.
I'm close, but just not there yet. I know that after a few losses I would stop and therefore be unable to take the next trade that might very well end up being a good trade to ultimately make the day positive. But since I'm unable to take each trade as I should, partly because I haven't nailed down exactly what I mean by "how each trade should be taken", I think I'm only wanting to take the absolute best trades. Because today we were in a range given the overnight action, although it was wide enough, I was hesitant. I'm of course a bit pissed since every trade would have worked out, with only perhaps the trade at C causing me a sweat a little bit, but in no way would it actually be stopped out for a loss if the stop placement was correct and if I didn't do anything stupid and get emotional.
Yes, I know the answer to all of this is SIM, but I'm sticking to my excuses. Tomorrow will of course be a different day, where perhaps none of what I would think to do today would have worked. But jesus, these past couple of weeks have gone really quite well, and we've had choppy days and really nice trending days.
At this point I'm fairly certainly that after a week, I could squeeze out a profit, even if tiny, but this would mean I'd have to accept some losing days. And to be honest, I'm just not ready to accept this. I don't want my account to drop another $500, which would be the equivalent of 25 points, but I know that if I don't accept the loss, I will never be able to make a profit, so I've put myself in quite the pickle.
I just have to test more and prove to myself that what I'm looking at, where I am placing trades based on my rules will work over a series of trades.
