Trading in Luxury

SPY preview Wk of 4/24/23, 4th and final wk expiry for April, 2023, Fri 4/28.
FOMC meeting tue and wed, rate statement on wed, May 3.

Options pricing +/-$5.50 move, +/-1.35%, last fri close 412.21, possible range of 407 to 418 for this week.
Option volume, open interest for puts, calls, indicate 400/410 to 416/420 range could hold.

April month open 408.85, last week all days green except small red on Wed, but ended week green.
384.37 was 1st qtr open of 2023, so we are holding green for the year.
 
idea from option pit...
0DTE is generating huge premium selling. And it's important to note that cheap options being sold have very little gamma.

But as we head into expiration, if an option gets near-the-money, it's exposure to volatility explodes.

Imagine this afternoon that $500,000,000 premium is being sold and expires in three hours.
Now imagine that number is short many puts. Say, 4100s, 4050s, 4025s, etc. sold on a 4125 market ...

Now imagine we get a move off a market catalyst ... and the S&P over the course of 30 seconds DROPS 40 points.

What do the short premium sellers have on their hands? They need to get out. So they buy back their 4,100s to cover --
and that starts a chain reaction, as 4050s, 4025s, etc. all get tripped.

The next thing you know, the SPX is down the limit. And total carnage is unleashed.

We've seen it before, because that's what happened in this 2018 XIV chart ...

The EXACT same kind of event is about to happen in SPX.
 
traderlux said:
...

We've seen it before, because that's what happened in this 2018 XIV chart ...

The EXACT same kind of event is about to happen in SPX.
More...

So your theory is that the S&P is about to crash 7% in one day, very soon. What is the evidence for that again?

And you know the XIV is gone, right? It no longer exists?
 
the idea is from option pit, they dont give a lot of details, i know XIV is gone, i used to trade it, was not in when the crash happened.
 
SPY preview Wk of 5/01/23, 1st wk expiry for May, 2023, Fri 5/05.
FOMC meeting tue and wed, rate statement on wed, May 3. NFP fri.

Options pricing +/-$6.80 move, +/-1.65%, last fri close 415.93, possible range of 409 to 423 for this week.
Option volume, open interest for puts, calls, indicate 400/412 to 420 range could hold.

April month open 408.85, last week big red on Tue, Wed, but ended week green.
384.37 was 1st qtr open of 2023, so we are holding green for the year.
 
SPY preview Wk of 5/08/23, 2d wk expiry for May, 2023, Fri 5/12.

Options pricing +/-$6.50 move, +/-1.50%, last fri close 412.65, possible range of 406 to 419 for this week.
Option volume, open interest for puts, calls, indicate 410 to 416/422 range could hold.

May month open 415.47, so we ended the 1st week in the red.
384.37 was January open of 2023, so we are holding green for the year.
 
SPY preview Wk of 5/15/23, 3rd wk and monthly expiry for May, 2023, Fri 5/19.

Options pricing +/-$5.50 move, +/-1.35%, last fri close 411.59, possible range of 406 to 417 for this week.
Option volume, open interest for puts, calls, indicate 400 to 420 range could hold.

May month open 415.47, so we ended the 1st week and the 2nd week both in the red.
384.37 was January open of 2023, so we are holding green for the year.
 
SPY preview Wk of 5/22/23, 4th wk and last expiry for May, 2023, Fri 5/26.

Options pricing +/-$5.80 move, +/-1.40%, last fri close 418.62, possible range of 413 to 425 for this week.
Option volume, open interest for puts, calls, indicate 400 to 420 range could hold.

May month open 415.47, ended 1st week, 2nd week both in the red, 3rd wk ended in the green.
384.37 was January open of 2023, so we are holding green for the year.
 
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