Trading in Luxury

T

traderlux

My thread for trading ideas. Trades are mainly options on momentum stocks and ETFs. Trades are either BULL, BEAR, or NEUTRAL and short term, usually not longer than 6 months.

stocks watch list:
AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, GS

ETF WATCH LIST:
SPY, DIA, QQQQ, IWM

PGJ, GLD, GDX, SLV

UUP

TLT, TBT
 
AA @$14.43, trade idea 12/11/09

outlook, bull to neutral

time frame, about 6mo or longer

strat, DITM longer term (LT) call, build a position, collect premium, reinvest in the trade

t/a, (later)

problemos? how will div and e/r affect the trade? e/r 11, jan

protection, (later) (DITM LT call provides some risk reduction vs long stock position)

exit, (?)

bto jan (2011) 10C $530/540
sto jan (2010) 16c $32/34

sell jan 11/12.5 p $7/8, $22/33, ($14/136), 10%
 
Trade idea
SPY
Date: 12/21/09
Price: 111.33
Almanac: End of Yr. favorable
Strategy: Bull Put Spread
T/A Support: 109
Time forTrade: 4 wks
BTO: JAN 104 PUT @ .47/.49
STO: JAN 106 PUT @ .67/.70
Net Credit: .18
At Risk: 1.92 (2.00-.18)
Margin Gain: 9%
Probability:
% OTM: 4.5%
 
Trade review
Quote from traderlux:

Trade idea
SPY
Date: 12/21/09
Price: 111.33
Almanac: End of Yr. favorable
Strategy: Bull Put Spread
T/A Support: 109
Time forTrade: 4 wks
BTO: JAN 104 PUT @ .47/.49
STO: JAN 106 PUT @ .67/.70
Net Credit: .18
At Risk: 1.92 (2.00-.18)
Margin Gain: 9%
Probability:
% OTM: 4.5%
More...

With SPY close at $114.62 today, 1/13/10, looks pretty safe to just let the trade expire on fri 15 and keep all premium.
It would take a 7% drop to hit the short strike.
Will add for the future almanac, "end of year AND start of new year favorable"
 
AA trade review
The vertical jan 11/12.5p expired at $0.

The way the cal spread turned out kinda confirms my thought that trades on stocks rather than ETFs are too risky. Especially around earnings, which was on 1/11.
AA traded to a high of $17.60 on mon 1/11, and closed at $15.63 on fri 1/15, OPX.
Today thu 1/28, close is $12.92, the jan 2011, $10 call is $380/395
I was looking for a stock under $20, and in some resource related area to build a longer term position in, using a DITM option in place of the stock.

I think for now I will concentrate on the vertical spreads on ETFs.




Quote from traderlux:

AA @$14.43, trade idea 12/11/09

outlook, bull to neutral

time frame, about 6mo or longer

strat, DITM longer term (LT) call, build a position, collect premium, reinvest in the trade

t/a, (later)

problemos? how will div and e/r affect the trade? e/r 11, jan

protection, (later) (DITM LT call provides some risk reduction vs long stock position)

exit, (?)

bto jan (2011) 10C $530/540
sto jan (2010) 16c $32/34

sell jan 11/12.5 p $7/8, $22/33, ($14/136), 10%
More...
 
trade review sat jan 30
trade did expire at $0, SPY $110.21
also an error in the "At Risk", 1.82, not 1.92
Margin Gain 10%
Quote from traderlux:

Trade idea
SPY
Date: 12/21/09
Price: 111.33
Almanac: End of Yr. favorable
Strategy: Bull Put Spread
T/A Support: 109
Time forTrade: 4 wks
BTO: JAN 104 PUT @ .47/.49
STO: JAN 106 PUT @ .67/.70
Net Credit: .18
At Risk: 1.92 (2.00-.18)
Margin Gain: 9%
Probability:
% OTM: 4.5%
More...
 
TRADE IDEA
USO
Date: 2/12/10
Price: 36.31
Almanac: favorable
Strategy: Bull Put Spread
T/A Support: 34
T/A: rsi 21, macd 12 26 9
Near term target: 40
Time forTrade: 5 wks
BTO: MAR 30 PUT @ 15/16
STO: MAR 33 PUT @ 44/47
Net Credit: .29
At Risk: 2.71
Margin Gain: 10%
Probability: (approx) 90%
% OTM: 3.3%
Volatilty: OVX @ 36.04
 
re USO trade idea

with the long holiday week end and todays rally, a lot of steam has come out of the proposed BPS MAR 30/33 P.

went from .29 to .17, USO @ $37.70

if put on now, trade would be a 6% ROM, approx 94% prob, still looks interesting, not as good as last Fri!
 
re USO trade idea

USO had a good week, Fri 19 eod $39.09.

Move was too quick to get on board with the BPS MAR 30/33 P.
Went from .39 on Fri 12, to .07 on Fri 19.
 
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