Trading in Luxury

Quote from steoli:

I think you're right, OIL is on resistance and there are a series of indicators that are pointing for a stop in the price movement.

But the question is...

Why trade the BEAR CALL on 39/40... You're risking a lot for 10 cents?

I've been doing these kinds of trades for years, and if i wanted the 10 cents, i would go naked on the 40 Strike, but probably in September options that are trading @ 0.44. Considering that USO has to break resistance levels and stop for a while to free the price from overbought levels and then rise 8.5% to reach the strike, we should get a very juicy premium.

Nevertheless, if the reason to make the BEAR CALL have to do with margin issues, then i would go for the AUG 38/39.

Steoli


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Feel that's a buy? Then sell...
http://tradingthecow.blogspot.com
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thanks for the reply, some interesting thoughts. i see what you mean about going nkd on the 40 strike. i have been trading spy bps and wanted to start looking at some possible bear call srpds. i thought the risk was not too bad, a dime out of a dollar strike spread. you think that is no buena? i have been doing about 6-8 cents out of a dollar with most of my spy trades.
on the recent intc trade i did 12 cents and had to buy back at 18 cents.

i am also looking at selling cash secured puts vs the vertical credits. i think it is easier to recover from a bad trade by either rolling the put or taking assignment and going to a covered call mode.

some of my verticals i bought back at a loss, when if it had been a cash secured put i could have held on and come out ok. but with the vertical and the possible bigger loss i was "scared" out of the trade and didnt have the strikes available to get a good roll.

i checked out your blog, looks interesting. i saw where you traded short puts on tbt, so you are thinking rates will rise?
i am thinking rates will fall.
 
Quote from traderlux:

i saw where you traded short puts on tbt, so you are thinking rates will rise?
i am thinking rates will fall.

I trade mainly technical. The TBT trade is a contrarian one.

My view is that the flight-to-safety trade should subside in the months ahead, as it becomes clearer that the domestic (and world) economy is not going into a double-dip but rather into a moderating expansion.

I could trade the PUTS Naked or trade a Put Ratio Spread. I've done the Naked.

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Feel that's a buy? Then sell...
http://tradingthecow.blogspot.com
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scuderia_Ferrari

Scuderia is Italian for a stable reserved to racing horses, and the word is also, like corresponding words in some other languages, used for race car teams. Ferrari refers to Enzo Ferrari, the founder of the company. The prancing horse was the symbol on Italian World War I ace Francesco Baracca's fighter plane, and became the logo of Ferrari after the fallen ace's parents, good friends with Enzo Ferrari, asked him to continue his tradition of sportsmanship, gallantry and boldness.


general market notes

SCUDERIA, stable of general market conditions,

sideways
choppy
up
down
events
risk
ivolatility
alignment abc
 
Modified SPY long/short indicator

i have modified the "kevindicator" to make it more intuitive for my own understanding. you can read about the original (thanks to kevin) at link to stockfetcher forums, (you can read without sign up), look for
"Interesting - VXX:SPY ratio accurately calls recent tops and..."

http://forums.stockfetcher.com/sfforums/?qrid=1276483044&fid=1002

one problem i have with the original indicator is that the vxx has a built in negative decay due to rolling futures contracts. i have recently tried using vxz instead, it looks a little cleaner. also, with the ratio being vxx to spy, it was just backwards of how i would look at it.
so here is my version, using vxz and reversing the ratio. realize the roc reads opposite the original now also. you want to be long spy with a positive roc.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY:VXZ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p41914154310

note both the original and the modified indicators turned long late aug and remain on a long signal.
 
deal or no deal

ibm 135.97, jan 135c 3.85 (cnbc, optionsaction) looks interesting

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?IBM|C|B2

sbux,aa,pnra,gmcr, considering puts, about 3mo, just otm

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?sbux,aa,pnra,gmcr|C|B2

modified kga indicator is telling me the general market is still positive

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY:VXZ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p41914154310

another way of watching it

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?spy,vxz|C|B2

interesting discussion at theoptionclub (y! group) about simple vs complicated option trading
 
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