Quote from Cutten:
Hi Scientist. I've actually just got back from a short holiday, so missed your GOOG call I'm afraid.
My opinion on stops - for scalps, 1 point; for trying to catch a clear intraday trend, 1.5-2 points. For a trailing stop during a strong intraday trend - 3 points max.
For overnight stuff I prefer 10 points stop on entry, going out to 15-20 points for a trailing stop.
These aren't pulled out of thin air. All anyone needs to do is look back at ES data for the last year or so (for overnights; last few months will do for daytrading), and work out what size stop would have been big enough to avoid the noise on the various timeframes, yet small enough to avoid serious loss or excessive erosion of profits.
You want to find something that would have allowed you to capture the bulk of most trends that you could identify. Look at what would have worked, then add a portion to that value in order to avoid over-optimisation and make the stop more robust.
Obviously there are other factors e.g. the current risk/reward, the market action, support/resistance etc. But looking at prior maximum pullbacks is a good starting point for determining the maximum size of your stop.
Hey Cutten, nice to hear you got to enjoy some time off. And another brilliant post from you!
As for the GOOG swing, I referred to the one in the "How bad do you suck" losing contest - I couldn't help it and went long at what looked pretty toppish to me, then it dropped and in a week I had about 9% loss (unleveraged). I thought I'd mention it since you posted a pretty nice ES short there at the bottom of the trading range...
As for stops - Obviously, they MUST be tested and verified. Nobody would pick a stop parameter out of thin air, that's just stupid. So many people just pick some arbitrary stop with apparently no idea how the market historically deals with it.
Also, you use pretty much exactly the same parameters I use on ES, with ~4T for range scalps, 6T for for a defined move, and 2-3 pts for a trail.
So by the way, folks - for all the CRITICS on this thread who have been saying how stupid, impossible etc it is to even suggest using 6T stops on the ES... Here's a guy who uses 4-6T stops for the ES, and it is none lesser than Cutten. So what, folks, is your story gonna be now?
There's less than a handful of people on ET whose opinion I value very highly, and Cutten is one of them. If he agrees on this point, then I know someone has a point. But that's just me.
As for Cutten's last 3 paragraphs... That advice is worth its weight in platinum. Look, test, add a "safe zone" to your stop and then play it, with the words of the very last paragraph in mind. That's the only way to do it without BS.
Cheers,
S