Through the Looking Glass

P/L for the week: +1K on 370,000 shares

0,-2,+2,-1,+2

A quiet week numbers-wise for me overall, but each day was still more of a struggle than was necessary. On 3 days my p/l peaked during the the first 15 minutes, so that proved frustrating.

A very warped part of my thinking that still exists is that somehow I get extra points for time spent holding a trade, there is a time and place for that but it's definitely not something to shoot for on every trade. I think another reason I've developed this habit is that it keeps me out of other trades, and makes it easier to sit on my hands once the peak hours have passed. Hard to sit still (and flat) but I need to get into the habit of wanting it first.

Do I underestimate the time risk of holding a position? Most definitely. But I think that's more of a function of where my roots are from. Although I started out as a soes trader in an office in '98, I didn't get profitable until I started position trading on my own, minimizing my transactions but holding trades for a few days at a time. Fast forward to the present day, and I'm in a hybrid mode between intraday and position that can get somewhat sticky when I'm trying to shift between gears. Why make things so hard? Even though I think I can make a decent living just purely intraday, I know I cannot trust it over the long run when it comes to growth and longevity in my trading. Just my own opinion in regards to my own abilities, I extend this no further.
 
P/L for the week: -18K on 290k shares traded

-2, 0, +1, -14, -3

The inability to get one "clean" day frustrated me since last week, and that culminated in a mini-blow out on thursday.

Here I am posting about "finding the line before the precipice" and "growth and longevity" -- meanwhile one of the biggest names in the business shuts down its operations. Assbackwards in every sense of the word.

It's been a tough year so far, not so much numbers-wise but in a loss of consistency and confidence. I attribute my most recent results to that growing sense of urgency that no trader should trade under -- this must be stopped immediately.

What about the curse of the journal and p/l posting that I keep reading about? Numbers-wise probably doesn't apply to me, but one thing I do recognize since starting this journal is a somewhat dangerous disconnect between achieving an understanding in words and actually following through during the trading day. It's like getting a false sense of achievement via written comprehension, whereas real-life hitting buttons when needed is a whole other story.

Accordingly, I won't spell out what I'll be doing differently next week. I feel sheepish to say it, but frankly it feels like a jinx to do so right now. Gotta do what you gotta do.
 
Quote from illiquid:

What about the curse of the journal and p/l posting that I keep reading about?
More...

I'm testing this hypothesis next week. I want to move to the next level in trading. That means taking on more risk and larger size. That also means a psychological shift and the possibility of large losing days. The goal is to have the winning days larger. I have a problem letting my winners run most of the time. If I can't let the winners run to full target, the losers will eat me when I size up and when I take on more risk. I will end up trading to not lose instead of trading to win and I often feel that's what I'm doing.

I started wondering if my ultra-conservative trading style and steady consistency and the fact I was posting on a public forum was keeping me in one place ("OK, I made enough today to pay the bills and I'm gonna post another green day, yay! I'm not gonna screw that up by trading any more today.")

It could turn out that I still do that, despite no longer posting in the P/L thread, and that I don't have what it takes to risk more with real money. I sure have no problem making money hand over fist in my sim account, but there's no real risk involved.

I'll let you know how it goes.

One thing that I believe is truly helpful in a public journal is to post charts with entries and exits on some of your trades, good and bad. People here will post feedback that is often really helpful. I've a learned a LOT that way.
 
Behavior modification without doubt is the key to trading success. Not only in how we think but also how we act in certain situations. We must adapt to changing situations which we have no control. We often must change the situations of which we do have control when trading.

- Phantom of the Pits
 
Quote from illiquid:

I do recognize since starting this journal is a somewhat dangerous disconnect between achieving an understanding in words and actually following through during the trading day.

It's like getting a false sense of achievement via written comprehension, whereas real-life hitting buttons when needed is a whole other story.
More...


If I may take a little literary liberty

I know what to do – I am not making myself do it

Yea I know – I sound like a flippin recording stuck in a loop - so be it

Ego is a bitch


RN
 
Quote from NoDoji:

I'm testing this hypothesis next week. I want to move to the next level in trading. That means taking on more risk and larger size. That also means a psychological shift and the possibility of large losing days. The goal is to have the winning days larger. I have a problem letting my winners run most of the time. If I can't let the winners run to full target, the losers will eat me when I size up and when I take on more risk. I will end up trading to not lose instead of trading to win and I often feel that's what I'm doing.
More...

Glad to hear you're trying to grow the business -- a few caveats if I may. Your explicit goal is to increase your winning days by increasing size and/or letting winners run. The first option is probably the simplest route and really doesn't require you to change much except get used to new figures. The second is a different story I believe.

To develop the ability to sit longer in winners, you necessarily have to get used to giving back alot of decent wins; to hit more home runs, you're gonna exchange alot of base hits for strikeouts along the way. Now the real question is: are the home runs worth giving up those base hits? Are your setups the kind that routinely catch outsized moves? Because the cost here will be giving up the more frequent smaller wins, and you want to be sure that's the kind of mental shift you're ready for. Me, I'm coming from the opposite end as you, I've gotten to the point where I'm almost always sitting longer than I should, and need to take a step back to reclaim more of those base hits.

Just don't let the p/l be the main focus. I would say to start out try to trade exactly the way you've been now, just with larger size. Keep entries and exits the same for now, worry about sitting longer at another time, I think trying to adjust for both simultaneously may be confusing. And one more thing: trading an additional lot of CL will not be the same as going to 2K shares of POT. Going from a thousand to 2k in any of the stocks you mentioned in your journal is not an easy transition -- imo, with 2k shares you will need to have learned how to sit for the longer move already at that size. Anything less and the slippage will be too much.
 
Quote from Love Trading:

Behavior modification without doubt is the key to trading success. Not only in how we think but also how we act in certain situations. We must adapt to changing situations which we have no control. We often must change the situations of which we do have control when trading.

- Phantom of the Pits
More...

A great read for the most part, I'd recommend it to anyone (just google it).
 
Quote from Redneck trader:

If I may take a little literary liberty

I know what to do – I am not making myself do it

Yea I know – I sound like a flippin recording stuck in a loop - so be it

Ego is a bitch


RN
More...

Take all the liberty you like. So long as the loop plays the truth, you can leave it on in here.

It's all in the difference between what I know and what I want. You know which side needs to give.
 
Quote from illiquid:

Glad to hear you're trying to grow the business -- a few caveats if I may. Your explicit goal is to increase your winning days by increasing size and/or letting winners run. The first option is probably the simplest route and really doesn't require you to change much except get used to new figures. The second is a different story I believe.

To develop the ability to sit longer in winners, you necessarily have to get used to giving back alot of decent wins; to hit more home runs, you're gonna exchange alot of base hits for strikeouts along the way. Now the real question is: are the home runs worth giving up those base hits? Are your setups the kind that routinely catch outsized moves? Because the cost here will be giving up the more frequent smaller wins, and you want to be sure that's the kind of mental shift you're ready for. Me, I'm coming from the opposite end as you, I've gotten to the point where I'm almost always sitting longer than I should, and need to take a step back to reclaim more of those base hits.

Just don't let the p/l be the main focus. I would say to start out try to trade exactly the way you've been now, just with larger size. Keep entries and exits the same for now, worry about sitting longer at another time, I think trying to adjust for both simultaneously may be confusing. And one more thing: trading an additional lot of CL will not be the same as going to 2K shares of POT. Going from a thousand to 2k in any of the stocks you mentioned in your journal is not an easy transition -- imo, with 2k shares you will need to have learned how to sit for the longer move already at that size. Anything less and the slippage will be too much.
More...

I really appreciate your post. I understand what you're saying: You take something that's working and you keep doing the exact same thing with larger size, you should end up with larger profits.

I'm basically still a scalper at heart, though I've made some decent strides in capturing larger moves. Letting winners run is especially difficult when trading 1 lot. I had so many trades where I took a quick profit and saw how much I left on the table that I decided to be more patient. So then I had an ES trade a while back that rather quickly produced a 4 pt profit (on a trade where my stop was only 1 pt). Price paused for a second and I thought "I should take this profit now" and if I'd been trading more than 1 lot, I would've taken off half, but I reminded myself to be patient, this could be a good continuation of the pre-market trend when the market opens and my goal was let winners run and so I moved my stop to a retracement trend violation zone and damned if price didn't go all the way back there after the open and stop me out for a 1 tick gain.

So when that happens I start to change my plan. That's where your comment about base hits and home runs applies. You need to choose your methodology. Am I going to give up gains 70%-80% of the time, but catch a serious runner (like yesterday's move) the rest of the time, or am I a steady-as-rock base hitter who can ignore the fact that I miss some incredible home runs as a result.

I agree that sizing up CL is very different from sizing up POT or AAPL. My account size prohibits me from trading more than 1800 shares POT or 800 shares AAPL. I can easily imagine trading 5-10 lots CL at some point, but 5000-10,000 shares POT or AAPL seems far higher risk, as you said just on potential slippage alone if a stop was triggered.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

I really appreciate your post. I understand what you're saying: You take something that's working and you keep doing the exact same thing with larger size, you should end up with larger profits.

I'm basically still a scalper at heart, though I've made some decent strides in capturing larger moves. Letting winners run is especially difficult when trading 1 lot. I had so many trades where I took a quick profit and saw how much I left on the table that I decided to be more patient. So then I had an ES trade a while back that rather quickly produced a 4 pt profit (on a trade where my stop was only 1 pt). Price paused for a second and I thought "I should take this profit now" and if I'd been trading more than 1 lot, I would've taken off half, but I reminded myself to be patient, this could be a good continuation of the pre-market trend when the market opens and my goal was let winners run and so I moved my stop to a retracement trend violation zone and damned if price didn't go all the way back there after the open and stop me out for a 1 tick gain.

So when that happens I start to change my plan. That's where your comment about base hits and home runs applies. You need to choose your methodology. Am I going to give up gains 70%-80% of the time, but catch a serious runner (like yesterday's move) the rest of the time, or am I a steady-as-rock base hitter who can ignore the fact that I miss some incredible home runs as a result.

I agree that sizing up CL is very different from sizing up POT or AAPL. My account size prohibits me from trading more than 1800 shares POT or 800 shares AAPL. I can easily imagine trading 5-10 lots CL at some point, but 5000-10,000 shares POT or AAPL seems far higher risk, as you said just on potential slippage alone if a stop was triggered.
More...
most of the time the market will only give you base hits,if you saw 100 dollar bill on the sidewalk would you pick it up,the bigger moves only happen 2-3 days a month , 10-15% of the time,so you need to take the base hits and when you feel the move is strong ride it, most of the time it's not
 
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