Remember, I called a bottom on the TSX ( posted on this several times recently ) in the 11500-11900 range.
this is a bear market for 10 years.
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Remember, I called a bottom on the TSX ( posted on this several times recently ) in the 11500-11900 range.
You didn't win anything. My observation over many years is that vocal permabears tend to under perform the opportunity on corrections ( rightly so, the timing and velocity is difficult ). It's actually far easier to see a clear floor and go long. That however requires a less emotional approach ( no conspiracy theories ) and do some proper work.
Anyone who thinks they can time US moves right now is kidding themselves. There are however very good long opportunities on the TSX during all this panic and overdone rhetoric.
As long as you are willing to accept the possibility of much lower levels ... then good luck.
I prefer to wait for an actual defined turn - on the rare times I enter positions beyond the current trading day.
Sorry, I don't follow TSX. Anyway, give me the link to this insanely accurate call you made and I'll be happy to pay my tribute.
TSX has done exactly that it shows every aspect of a bottom already. Index and bank stocks. In addition, the CDN$ at briefly 68 cents mirrors the bottom after the last crisis. What occurred in 2009 forward was several years of strength in miners, energy, and Cdn banks. Energy is a gamble but prices are interesting.
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Those who think it's gonna be long bear market are delusional
in 2008 most losses were erased within 12 months since Lehman fell
And that time Fed was slow to print and TARP was debated for weeks
Just this week Fed printed 500 bln+. And next week it will print more. And it will print till market hits new highs
And tomorrow will get 2 trln fiscal boost. That will cover all GDP loss for the year and more
And when we exit the emergency there will be zero interest rates forever
I don't call for bottom now. I'm preparing contingencies for S&P hitting 700 and I even can imagine it at 400 ( great depression loss).
But I'm absolutely sure this market will hit highs quite soon
in 2008 most losses were erased within 12 months since Lehman fell
And that time Fed was slow to print and TARP was debated for weeks
Just this week Fed printed 500 bln+. And next week it will print more. And it will print till market hits new highs
And tomorrow will get 2 trln fiscal boost. That will cover all GDP loss for the year and more
And when we exit the emergency there will be zero interest rates forever
I don't call for bottom now. I'm preparing contingencies for S&P hitting 700 and I even can imagine it at 400 ( great depression loss).
But I'm absolutely sure this market will hit highs quite soon
What do mean you can't time the market? This is what charts are for. Consider the following chart and the numbers.
You can clearly see where, and more importantly how, the ATH was made (#1). That's when I posted my call for the impending crash. In #2, can you see that we closed this week at the low and also crossed below that important trendline? Finally, we are now trading below the December 2018 low (where S2007 have spectacularly got it all wrong as you're so fond of saying).
So you really believe we'll head right back up to ATH? Not in this lifetime of ours.
S2007S got it spectacularly wrong in 2016 when the SPX was around 1950. Very similar situation actually at that time concerning trader's perspectives as right now. So if you are looking at an event that might be instructive look to the 2016 correction which was started by the first US interest rate hike, and what occurred since on US markets. What I'm saying is a very similar result could happen as what occurred 2016-2019 moving forward once this health scare is under control.
These not in our lifetime predictions are almost always wrong. Poster "deadbroke" declared a short on the SPX in 2009 forward expecting new atl's with the previous highs as a stop loss. Totally failed trade. I expect your forecast will meet a similar fate; not if, just when. Even I have issued a "lifetime" forecast that the US will never have negative interest rates. I stand by that one even as we are awfully close to doing so. If I'm wrong I'll accept it.
Do you then think Corona virus just happened to coincide with the Measured Move (the top of the second line on the chart above)? That I was merely lucky? I think otherwise. I've been trading since 1994, and I've witnessed too many coincidences to call them a mere coincidence.