So you called for the impending crash in 2014? If so, why did you not call for the impending crash of 2020 in beginning of 2009?
this is a bear market for 10 years.
- Thread starter trend2009
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So you called for the impending crash in 2014? If so, why did you not call for the impending crash of 2020 in beginning of 2009?
Either I'm senile or I don't remember ever calling for an outright crash in 2014. I was definitely bearish at the time, but did I EXPLICITLY state that the market would crash by more than 50% like I have this time?
So I'm digging through my old posts to see if I in fact made that bold claim you wrote and there's not even 1 post in 2014--zero, zip, zilch! How the heck did you reach that conclusion?
Bold ass statement man.
Especially since we were just at ATH forever and just ended like a month ago.
I guess your post is more determined on how long will you live (lifetime)
To those that compare this with 2008, I think we first need to figure out if in fact there was a recovery. For most people, I think the answer is no. Much of this market recovery happened because of stock buybacks, and the FED is still sitting on much of the funny money it had printed. Furthermore, the markets never did normalize rates, not even close.
So considering all of this, any conclusion you draw about how quick this recover will be based on 2008 doesn't many any sense if you consider for a moment that a recovery didn't really happen. All that happened was multiple asset bubbles.
The question going forward is can the FED continue to rig the system even more? The trillions of injections are such huge sums, and somewhere along the way, you would assume inflation will hit big time.
I personally think the virus itself can be solved in a 6 month time frame or so, or at the very least controlled. How many lives are lost is an unknown, but it wont be staggering. The problem though is that multiple bubbles have burst, and the fragility of the underlying economy has been exposed. It will probably not be solved by more FED tampering, and a new normal, new expectations, will have to be realized.
I prefer to look at this crash as something that was inevitable, and its simply that its Covid-2019 that provided the initial push and crash. Granted, in a spectacular and accelerated way, but it was nevertheless already backed in given the trillions of debt, no ability to raise rates, most people worse off in the past 10 years, etc.
So considering all of this, any conclusion you draw about how quick this recover will be based on 2008 doesn't many any sense if you consider for a moment that a recovery didn't really happen. All that happened was multiple asset bubbles.
The question going forward is can the FED continue to rig the system even more? The trillions of injections are such huge sums, and somewhere along the way, you would assume inflation will hit big time.
I personally think the virus itself can be solved in a 6 month time frame or so, or at the very least controlled. How many lives are lost is an unknown, but it wont be staggering. The problem though is that multiple bubbles have burst, and the fragility of the underlying economy has been exposed. It will probably not be solved by more FED tampering, and a new normal, new expectations, will have to be realized.
I prefer to look at this crash as something that was inevitable, and its simply that its Covid-2019 that provided the initial push and crash. Granted, in a spectacular and accelerated way, but it was nevertheless already backed in given the trillions of debt, no ability to raise rates, most people worse off in the past 10 years, etc.
The fact of the matter is that the biggest economy, USA (which practically feeds the entire world economy), downplayed this pandemic. Even while the Chinese government was actively shutting down Wuhan under quarantine, Trump didn't even stock up on the test kits. Now USA, in turn, is shutting down not just a city but the whole freaking economy. This will eventually reverberate throughout the entire world. That's what's so scary in my opinion. We will likely face a credit crisis by next month. I ain't no economist but even an idiot would know we will be mired in a deep recession. I envisage a recession much greater in scope than the 2008 Great Recession.
One more, S&P500 on average have dropped about 50% for the past 2 recessions. My guess is that we will drop much more than 50% this time. Once we recover, and it won't be a quick recovery as in 2009, I don't believe there's a remote possibility that we will see the ATH for a very long time. I'm in my 50s. I don't believe I will see it again in my lifetime.
But then again, these are just my own 2-cents. There's no need to lose sleep over it.
Free fall after s$p drops below 2000. Easy 50% drop from highs. No one even predicted such a collapse and here it is...just proves that even if you ever miss ar bull market you can always catch the next by being a bit patient. All that capital that could have been preserved even if you sold at dow 26,000 or 23000 and now even 20000. Years and years and years of gains gone in only weeks....
Once again they only fix the problem with trillions and trillions of dollars....the reason why we are here today is because of those trillions they spent the last decade. Everyone thinks the market is going back to fresh highs once the corvid 19 starts to fade however the damage is done....on average it takes 4 years to get back to prior highs after a bull market turns to a bear market. So there is a long long way to go. The fed has no where to go this time and the recession hasn't even set in yet. Eeeeek
I'm looking at the 2007 high, where the 2008 crash started, as the possible low. However, this Corona thing is the wildcard. If we don't find a cure by then, I'm sure we will go down even lower. Then we're possibly looking at 666 again (devil incarnate).