this is a bear market for 10 years.

[Genevian Speculator]

what is different than 2008 (Lehman)?

1. Less leverage. Means less selling potential
2. Permanent QE, means there is more money than investment opportunities.
3. HFT. Means charts older then 2010 (start of the HFT era) have no meaning today.
4. TINA. Fixed income is gone forever. So its stocks for everyone.
If you combine that it means the stock market to get much lower is not that likely. Still possible but not likely.

 

[Nine_Ender]

what is different than 2008 (Lehman)?

1. Less leverage. Means less selling potential
2. Permanent QE, means there is more money than investment opportunities.
3. HFT. Means charts older then 2010 (start of the HFT era) have no meaning today.
4. TINA. Fixed income is gone forever. So its stocks for everyone.
If you combine that it means the stock market to get much lower is not that likely. Still possible but not likely.

I'd also add very real value in the IT sector adds some degree of premium to the overall market. Also possible that growing industries like health car/environmental/electric cars replace some struggling industries.

 

[Nobert]

17:11

Can only imagine, how many prophets, were calling for everlasting bear markets, since then.

 

[FriskyCat]

Fascinating sentiment.

 

[MrMuppet]

Guys, stop arguing over a potential bottom. This is just a stupid discussion, it's not 2008.
It is not a systemic crisis like 2008 that was just a result of overleverage in a couple of sectors.

The army is in NY, lock down in NJ, 2T $ direct injection which is half the GDP of Germany.
This is not gonna be some rednecks and strippers going bankrupt over their 6 appartments financed with NINJA loans.

Are you people even aware of the chain of events that is possibly happen next? I say possibly, because perhaps there's a miracle happening and all is over in two weeks.

But most likely it is not.
This is a perfect storm made out of a true pandemic, the recession end of the economic cycle, financial engineering aka passive investing via ETF's plus massive overleveraging.

This is also not a top down crisis were a couple of dorks misplayed and dragged down a handful of idiots with them who were stupid enough to follow like 2000/2008, this time it's bottom up as damage is done directly to the workforce and their salaries.

Speaking of a V bottom right now is absolutely ridiculous. There will be rallies, but this is a traders market, not a investors marked and it will be for at least 2/3 years.

The US is weeks behind schedule when it comes to the pandemic, so expect restrictions and shutdowns for the months to come. It's nice to finally have some tests but honestly, who will ask to be tested when the price tag for CoViD 19 treatment is 35k $ and there is no universal health care?

All who traded during the 2008 crisis know, that this is just the beginning and this is not how a washout looks like. This is not a panic nor are we even close to a recession sentiment right now.
When the media shows pictures of 100s of homeless and jobless people queuing up for soup, of foreclosures, of people suffocating because they cannot aford treatment, then we've a panic.

A mild case would be a 2008 look alike and it took over a year top to bottom. On the other side of the spectrum would the situations similar to the great inflation in France that led to the revolution. I mean, what is the Fed going to do, when the pandemic is not over in 2 months? They print more...and then they print more.


In short:
All you morons who just trade off of guestimates or charts in this situation better dig into the history of the great economic crisis from the last 300 years. There are no absolutes but this situation has the potential to become really, really aweful. So you all better be aware of the risks and possible scenarios

 

[schizo]

And you will be wrong on this. The only way the ATH doesn't get taken out on US indexes in your lifetime is if you die because of the virus within 1-2 years. US markets are global in nature.

Don't worry. I don't know about others, but I'll definitely outlive you.

BTW you called me crazy when I said we would crash in 2 months. So much for your outlook.

 

[Nine_Ender]

In short:
All you morons who just trade off of guestimates or charts in this situation better dig into the history of the great economic crisis from the last 300 years. There are no absolutes but this situation has the potential to become really, really aweful. So you all better be aware of the risks and possible scenarios

Or it's a short term black swan event that gets dealt with leading to a V shaped recovery that very few will see coming. Place your bets accordingly. I fail to see how this virus truly impacts the top Cdn banks for example; they will do even better on interest spreads. Yet you can buy them now at a 40% discount to normal valuations and collect a 6% yield whereas US banks are 4% or less. And that trade has never failed in 30 years. Oh I know, this time is supposedly different the mayhem that could occur ... ; heard that all in 2009.

 

[FriskyCat]

Don't worry. I don't know about others, but I'll definitely outlive you.

BTW you called me a crazy when I said we would crash in 2 months. So much for your outlook.

Hey Schizo, I noticed how much grief S2007's stalker was giving you, so I compiled a "Greatest Hits" from the month of February:

 

[Nine_Ender]

Don't worry. I don't know about others, but I'll definitely outlive you.

BTW you called me a crazy when I said we would crash in 2 months. So much for your outlook.

You got lucky on a black swan event; what was crazy was your stated premises on why we would crash. And why that matters is how you react to current markets now. I got out ages ago and kept a significant portion of my 2019 gains which I forecast with precision. You can note no forecast from me in 2020 at any point. I'll admit the velocity of the drop my timing was not up to my usual standards and I took a hit ( whereas in late 2018 I did extremely well minimizing my losses in the correction and capturing the up move after fully ).

If I'm right and this is a transitional crisis, the opportunity now is buying quality ahead of the recovery. I prefer Canadian markets short term to US markets. Gold miners are an effective hedge on the crisis, and patient investors can play the potential recovery with blue chip dividend payers with strong balance sheets.

 

[Overnight]

Hey Schizo, I noticed how much grief S2007's stalker was giving you, so I compiled a "Greatest Hits" from the month of February:

...

All things being equal, we would not be in a downturn without this global pandemic.

I.E., if there was no virus crisis, there would have been no economic reason for a drop of this magnitude. Correction-callers got lucky on the timing, but never saw the reason for it coming.

I do not recall anyone, anywhere, saying 6 weeks ago that the world economy was going to crash 35% and counting, for any specific reason.

I certainly do not recall whispers of a new depression ala 1930s, as I am seeing now. Where were the depression prognosticators back in Jan and Feb? They did not exist, because the world was humming along for the most part after the trade-war resolutions.

So now they come out and in hindsight say "See? We told you it was coming!" They're catching the rush of being right about a black swan, which is in itself rare over any given time frame. Well, I'm going to call the white swan. The market is going to be HIGHER than where we are today in 10 years.