this is a bear market for 10 years.

[schizo]

You got lucky on a black swan event; what was crazy was your stated premises on why we would crash. And why that matters is how you react to current markets now. I got out ages ago and kept a significant portion of my 2019 gains which I forecast with precision. You can note no forecast from me in 2020 at any point. I'll admit the velocity of the drop my timing was not up to my usual standards and I took a hit ( whereas in late 2018 I did extremely well minimizing my losses in the correction and capturing the up move after fully ).

If I'm right and this is a transitional crisis, the opportunity now is buying quality ahead of the recovery. I prefer Canadian markets short term to US markets. Gold miners are an effective hedge on the crisis, and patient investors can play the potential recovery with blue chip dividend payers with strong balance sheets.

Am I supposed to listen to this after-the-fact hindsight dribble? No thanks.

 

[FriskyCat]

All things being equal, we would not be in a downturn without this global pandemic.

I.E., if there was no virus crisis, there would have been no economic reason for a drop of this magnitude. Correction-callers got lucky on the timing, but never saw the reason for it coming.

I do not recall anyone, anywhere, saying 6 weeks ago that the world economy was going to crash 35% and counting, for any specific reason.

I certainly do not recall whispers of a new depression ala 1930s, as I am seeing now. Where were the depression prognosticators back in Jan and Feb? They did not exist, because the world was humming along for the most part after the trade-war resolutions.

So now they come out and in hindsight say "See? We told you it was coming!" They're catching the rush of being right about a black swan, which is in itself rare over any given time frame. Well, I'm going to call the white swan. The market is going to be HIGHER than where we are today in 10 years.

I knew several that were within days of calling this top (not me btw, I just recognize talent).

 

[schizo]

All things being equal, we would not be in a downturn without this global pandemic.

I.E., if there was no virus crisis, there would have been no economic reason for a drop of this magnitude. Correction-callers got lucky on the timing, but never saw the reason for it coming.

I do not recall anyone, anywhere, saying 6 weeks ago that the world economy was going to crash 35% and counting, for any specific reason.

I certainly do not recall whispers of a new depression ala 1930s, as I am seeing now. Where were the depression prognosticators back in Jan and Feb? They did not exist, because the world was humming along for the most part after the trade-war resolutions.

So now they come out and in hindsight say "See? We told you it was coming!" They're catching the rush of being right about a black swan, which is in itself rare over any given time frame. Well, I'm going to call the white swan. The market is going to be HIGHER than where we are today in 10 years.

The underlying premise you do not understand and will never understand is this:

MEDIAS LIE, GOVERNMENTS LIE, BUT CHARTS DO NOT LIE

 

[Nine_Ender]

Hey Schizo, I noticed how much grief S2007's stalker was giving you, so I compiled a "Greatest Hits" from the month of February:

View attachment 222709

If you read exactly what I said it all holds up. A black swan event does not confirm markets were in a bubble; in fact, we haven't nearly dropped enough to confirm that at all. A true bubble not only drops huge but it stays at much lower levels for decades. Not going to happen.

S2007S was predicting a 40-60% crash when the SPX was 1950 in the year 2016. Even after a huge virus scare hit, we remain above that level.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Am I supposed to listen to this after-the-fact hindsight dribble? No thanks.

When we recover you can go back to blaming "money printing" and the Fed and claiming it's a bubble. You just said we'd never see 3400 on the SPX again; that's delusional in nature. Reminds me of 2009 when people swore til they were blue in the face that we would never break ATHs ( 15xx ) again. Some people never learn.

 

[schizo]

When we recover you can go back to blaming "money printing" and the Fed and claiming it's a bubble. You just said we'd never see 3400 on the SPX again; that's delusional in nature. Reminds me of 2009 when people swore til they were blue in the face that we would never break ATHs ( 15xx ) again. Some people never learn.

Here you go again. When I said the market would crash within the next 2 months, you couldn't wait 2 months and started bashing on me before that time. Well, why don't you wait at least 2 years to see if my prediction is true this time. Even in two years from now, we will be nowhere near the top is my call. Come back to me at that time and I'll be happy to meet you head on.

 

[Nine_Ender]

All things being equal, we would not be in a downturn without this global pandemic.

I.E., if there was no virus crisis, there would have been no economic reason for a drop of this magnitude. Correction-callers got lucky on the timing, but never saw the reason for it coming.

I do not recall anyone, anywhere, saying 6 weeks ago that the world economy was going to crash 35% and counting, for any specific reason.

I certainly do not recall whispers of a new depression ala 1930s, as I am seeing now. Where were the depression prognosticators back in Jan and Feb? They did not exist, because the world was humming along for the most part after the trade-war resolutions.

So now they come out and in hindsight say "See? We told you it was coming!" They're catching the rush of being right about a black swan, which is in itself rare over any given time frame. Well, I'm going to call the white swan. The market is going to be HIGHER than where we are today in 10 years.

Every correction no matter what the reason brings these guys out and they always expect worse then it is. I believe the US bull is still on longer term and this crisis is a huge buying opportunity with less risk then 2009. And the real problem these guys have is they got locked into things going lower and fail to fully participate on the up side.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Here you go again. When I said the market would crash within the next 2 months, you couldn't wait 2 months and started bashing on me before that time. Well, why don't you wait at least 2 years to see if my prediction is true this time. Even in two years from now, we will be nowhere near the top is my call. Come back to me at that time and I'll be happy to meet you head on.

You were arrogantly bashing others including me from day one. You spoke of a certainty that didn't exist and now think a black swan event will permanently change the markets for decades. Let's put a number on it. My guess is we go to at least 3000 on the SPX within a year. I particularly like the TSX at current levels as a lower risk more reliable play ( anywhere from 11500-11900 ). I say this with no certainty just a probability with good risk/reward.

 

[schizo]

Every correction no matter what the reason brings these guys out and they always expect worse then it is. I believe the US bull is still on longer term and this crisis is a huge buying opportunity with less risk then 2009. And the real problem these guys have is they got locked into things going lower and fail to fully participate on the up side.

I'll be sure to clip this post and compare it in 3 months, 6 months, etc.

For the record, on Friday (03/20/2020), S&P500 closed at 2304.92 after having fallen 32.08% from the ATH in just 23 sessions.

 

[schizo]

You were arrogantly bashing others including me from day one. You spoke of a certainty that didn't exist and now think a black swan event will permanently change the markets for decades. Let's put a number on it. My guess is we go to at least 3000 on the SPX within a year. I particularly like the TSX at current levels as a lower risk more reliable play ( anywhere from 11500-11900 ). I say this with no certainty just a probability with good risk/reward.

In the end, it's not how you win that matters. What matters is that I won and you lost, period. So quit lecturing about your hindsight analysis.