The Wallace Trading Method

I must apologise for yesterday's flip one-liner. in my defence, I have to tell you that I
was abducted by Wild Women who barely ! allowed my to post what I did, kept me
up ! all night, and it wasn't until after NOON today that I regained conciousness and
was able to return home
I really will try and make the effort to post on Saturdays, although may still have to
update on Sundays if there's something going on in the new week's pre-market

""May you live in interesting times", often referred to as the Chinese curse, is
reputed to be the English translation of an ancient Chinese proverb and curse,
although it may have originated amongst the English themselves."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times

For Tuesday April 16/13

longer term I'm still seeing the Buy and nothing's changed to suggest a Sell, even if the
eurusd price were to drop lower. it has hit a 61 although not the fibo of the whole rally
begun Apri 4 , and at this time I don't expect it to go lower, in fact correction over
appears to have occurred. but; have to add that the price could, could form an AB base
and if so, might, form until the US session, with a could be touch lower down to the
1.3020 area
downside break would be the 1.3020 level
upside, looking for the break of 1.3150 and close above that level
4:01pm pst

gold: closed the Sells an hour ago since they'd hit a 'significant' 61
profits on the xauusd demo trades were $2306 and $2545
chart update: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3780984#post3780984
 
1.3150 was an arbitrary level I wanted to see the price close above, which it did with
a close that topped a fibo level
the price could continue to rally which is what I have in mind; a correction here is I
think one that would be shallow - if there is one

For Wednesday April 17/13

downside: depends on what sort of correction if there is one, could go down to the
1.3150 area, into hour 7 , there's no EU announcements listed of any consequence
upside: could continue rallying from here, stay with the Buy, 1.3270 , 1.33 . . .
3:16pm pst
 
'stay with the Buy' obviously incorrect

looking at the dx weekly chart, if the price breaks 82.96 and closes the week above
83.18 I'd start thinking new highs to come - euro Down. close below 83.18 and it
looks like the right shoulder of an H&S - euro back Up next week

For Thursday April 18/13

downside: there's some support on the 4H, break 1.3001 means more downside
maybe to 1.2970 , but breaking 1.2960 could be a 'head's up below !'
upside: I don't expect a lot, maybe 1.3060 area, think tomorrow's Claims will come in
low so that'll be a price deflator
4:50pm pst
 
German PPI 2am est and President Weidmann speech in Washington 7:30am est
G20 and IMF meetings in Washington

interesting the price popped the chasm line and closed just under it
the euro weekly looks like the price will drop, however there's been little corrective
action on that tf so judgement's reserved

For Friday April 19/13

downside: still remains as yesterday and a low close would make for a good Buy
next week
upside: not sure there will be any, a ssslllloooooow day
3:00pm pst

gold xauusd Sell entered at 1388.26 , maybe a bit early but better than late
 
For Monday April 22/13

may see some upside to the 1.3080 area, but overall expecting a declining session
down to 1.3008 , perhaps as low as 1.2970

just checked the XE site and see the price has already hit 1.30908 , so, there 'might'
be a sell off from here, but, I suppose there could be an up day today, waffling I know
but there it is
1:49pm pst
 
ok, some US housing data but the EU is Flashing tonite 3 , 3:30 and 4am est and as you
recall, released 2 minutes before the listed times

For Tuesday April 23/13

I think the price is likely to rise until the flash data's released. my estimate is that the
flash data comes in lower than the forecast so there'll be a sell-off
can't see the price running to 1.3123 again unless the flashes are positive
the 'looks' of the daily is edging to the precarious where a breakdown would see a
large fall, a change from Buy to Sell in a major way since the formation is looking like
an H&S with the right shoulder forming. the weekly tho is a bit more positive, but I
think we - I'll have to wait out the week to have a clearer idea of what's next
3:34pm pst
 
Wallace, congratulations for the great call about that DE PMI but a few minutes before that France PMI marked the new highs.
So probably some shorts have been stopped early and then long trapped and shorts added after DE weak data.
Let's see how it will evolve during the US session just begun.
 
For Wednesday April 24/13

not sure if the 4H will go down one more bar, or start to rally on that bar, however
the downside seems to have stopped between the 1.2985-75 area

then again, the daily is still looking palid and an obvious area for it to travel to is the
1.29 area which is the bottom chasm line, so yesterday's LL is the watch out area
and if the price does break that level, probably a down day tomorrow
3:15pm pst
 
think Claims may be up a bit

For Thursday April 25/13

mind change, an up day today, why not eh ?
if you're keeping track, with the exception of a spike the price has held the 50 level
and closed above during the last 2 sessions, so I'm now thinking we might go back
up to the opening chasm line
the biggy Friday is the Advance US GDP at 8:30am est - more tomorrow but is the
euro setting up for that ? or should I say has set up . . .
2:28pm pst - - actual posting time was 12:32am pst
 
notwithstanding the rosy GDP estimate to be released at 8:30am est, I'll say that it
will come in even lower than the previous quarter's, based on eyeballing several gdp
related charts. I've been known to be wrong

yesterday's pinging the 23 was a classic 'buy/sell on rumour sell/buy on news' type
of trade for the Claims. what helped the sell-off was 'news' the ECB WILL ??? cut
the rate by a 1/4 point . . .

For Friday April 26/13

if my gdp prophesy comes true, the euro should rally
for the past 10 days the C has been between the chasm lines, and the likelyhood is
the price will decline to the lower one again. upside is 1.3026 , but the downside is first
the 50 at 1.2927 , which if broken permits the price to drop to the 1.29 area, although
there are a couple of fibos above including the current fibo's 61 at 1.2918
there is of course the possibility that the price could continue declining into the 1.28s
2:44pm pst
 
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