The Wallace Trading Method

Wednesday the FOMC at 2pm est are expected to leave rates unchanged
ECB announcement on Thursday 8:30am est when it's expected there'll be a 1/4
point lowering of the rate which'll be a non event given all the talk about this already
more important is the US NFP on Friday 8:30am est

For Monday April 29/13

look at XE sees the price up 5 pips - oh ! not 5 — 25 !! confirmed, gap open
I was first thinking the price would rally up to the ECB, now I'm having second thoughts
but will play it day by day starting off with the price rallying today, chasm line - more ?

Wednesday bank holidays for Switzerland, France, Germany, Italy and accordingly:
"Banks facilitate the majority of foreign exchange volume. When they are closed the
market is less liquid and speculators become a more dominant market influence.
This can lead to both abnormally low and abnormally high volatility."
2:12pm pst

second xauusd demo gold Sell at $1477 last Thursday night
 
the price has made a strong rally thru and closed above the chasm line and is con-
tinuing to rise. breaking thru and above an ml leaves a Lot of room above with the
possibility of breaking thru 1.32 , but all that's the Daily

For Tuesday April 30/13

the price could go up to the 1.3130s and then start to decline in a correction. if it
does rally to the 1.32 level it could then also begin a correction and in both cases
still remain in a bullish mode. so still seeing upside, 1.32 ? 1.3270 ? 1.3170 ?
2:25pm pst
 
there's still some upside remaining, however today, tomorrow and Friday each con-
tain their separate uncertainties about rates and numbers until the actual facts have
been stated
looking ahead a week, the eco reports are heavier for the EU than the US, so I'll go
out on a limb and suggest a down week then - revision provided

For Wednesday May 1/13

downside could possibly be as little as 1.3145 and another rally to , , , well, there's
still that upside, 1.3270 maybe, popping the 1.33 ?
2:33pm pst
 
the price I believe has topped
a correction's begun that may continue into next week

what the ECB may announce tomorrow is more initiatives being taken in order to
ease the current economic hardship beyond the expected cut; if that's the case
a long explanation on what's planned may take some time to be reviewed

Claims may be down again

For Thursday May 2/13

don't see any meaningful upside, although a correction could, take the price back up
to the low 1.320s , but it's more likely to be lower - or there won't be a correction
first downside likely 1.3130 area
2:47pm pst
 
Quote from Wallace:

the price I believe has topped
a correction's begun that may continue into next week

what the ECB may announce tomorrow is more initiatives being taken in order to
ease the current economic hardship beyond the expected cut; if that's the case
a long explanation on what's planned may take some time to be reviewed

Claims may be down again

For Thursday May 2/13

don't see any meaningful upside, although a correction could, take the price back up
to the low 1.320s , but it's more likely to be lower - or there won't be a correction
first downside likely 1.3130 area
2:47pm pst
More...

Cycle gurus (John Taylor) predicted a top at 1.3220 as well, and said the decline will last until June/July time frame and head down towards 1.24. That was in last week's missive, though. Wonder if they changed their tune this week.

Those guys are pretty uncanny with their predictions.
 
Last night's missive stated that they now see 1.3350 as a potential high before the downtrend resumes, but said if we actually see that high print, it's a good place to sell for a downtrend to resume in mid May.

Given the spike up after the ECB cut rates this morning (bizarre) that high print might actually materialize. Fed cuts rates, dollar goes down. ECB cuts rates as planned, Euro goes up.

:confused:
 
may see another drop in the U Rate. the NFP number is already expected to be low
but will it be lower than last month's ? 8:30am est. of course, it could be a biggy . . .
there's an EU Economic Forecast for all countries at 5am est, large document that
unless it has something startling like Germany is declaring bankruptcy should not
have too much of an effect on the price

For Friday May 3/13

yesterday's LL bar Close a pip above the 61 and is still playing around with it. I'd left
off a digit yesterday, 1.320s should have been 1.3220s and I was thinking correction
up before the price declined. as it was the price did things arse backwards, low then
up to 1.3217 then dumping to thru the 61 — 'great balls of manipulations'

I presume we may go down to the 1.2950s basing Monday or Tuesday and then
beginning a rally, yes, UP
the decline could tho see the lower chasm line at least penetrated, another 50 pips
lower, but I'll wait till the day's over before saying more
if there is upside think it'll be around the chasm line, 1.3080s - 1.39

sweltering hot weekend expected here, don't you wish ;
2:38pm pst
 
Draghi Mon 9am est. France Ind Prod Tue 2:45am. Germany Fact Ords Tue 6am
Germany Wed 6am Ind Prod. various US

my idea is a rally beginning Tuesday or Wednesday, But, the price could continue
down if the April-May formation is a retracement of the Feb high, now completed
meaning new lows to come, 1.26s, and possibly lower
currently the W formation is looking like an AB base or H&S if you prefer and the ulti-
mate low could then be back down toward the 1.20 area - symmetrical and then an-
other boom economy for Germany
'Draghi Mulls Negative Campaign as Economy Struggles' :
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-02/draghi-mulls-negative-campaign-as-economy-struggles.html

For Monday May 6/13

upside: already begun Friday so the price would just keep rising

downside: it's possible the price will stay up for a few hours before beginning to de-
cline. chasm line, then 1.3060s, 30s
the break level would be 1.2954 , maybe 1.2910 allowing for elbow room, but don't
expect all that today, or will Draghi say something to push the euro over the cliff ?
1:06pm pst
 
the price has not yet reached that point to break down and thru nor spring up from
just wondering if the German Factory Orders may see a surprise pop up, not the
down forecast: 6am est

For Tuesday May 7/13

upside: none really unless it's late in the session

downside: expect it to continue, maybe 1.3204 area
2:45pm pst

gold Sell ~ 1477.73
- eur Sell ~ 1.3121
- jpy Buy ~ 99.166
 
German Ind Prod 6am, also an up ?

For Wednesday May 8/13

upside: sideways till the German number's released; IF positive it may pop
the price again, 1.31 ? but still seeing down

downside: first break around 1.3043 , maybe 1.3022
2:36m pst
 
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