The Scientific Models that Drive US Public Policy on COVID are Wildly Wrong

[wrbtrader]

Of course I was not as smart on March how I’m smart today.
However I would tell it and you will be surprised.
In my opinion, US should only shut down NY, NJ, CA, iL and even only where big crowd accumulated. The rest of country should be precaution but open.
A big big mistake made based on China, Italy, NYC experience.
Do you know how mach damage done besides covid19.

Yeah, the U.S. could have done that but it was not possible.

Thousands of state line crossings...not possible. Heck, I know people that live in Illinois and work in Indiana or vice versa. If I remember correctly, there's about +700 state line road crossings between Illinois and Indiana.

Heck, they could use the National Guard or Reserves and still wouldn't be able to shut down the state line crossings. Simply, you'll now be forcing active duty military participation and the federal government involvement...welcome to mass chaos and riots.

Then there's the Illinois / Wisconsin state lines...the Illinois / Iowa state lines...Illinois / Missouri state lines and the Illinois / Kentucky state lines.

The freedom and privacy rights of people in the U.S. wouldn't allow such. You'll have much more than the protests you see now. There will be in fact...riots and killings, new type of cross border smuggling...new type of crime. Yeah, they really want something like that.

That's a completely different type of shut down involving the state lines versus the shutdown of the U.S. economy.

Regardless, some states are re-opening now and they still don't have good contact tracking in place. It will be interesting to see their Coronavirus stats about 2 weeks from now. Hopefully they are still on the other side of the bell curve for infections.

wrbtrader

 

[wrbtrader]

Sadly that is true, but Chinese did not allow people go outside

In the documentary I watch...they had police, military drag citizens out of their homes that they thought were infected after the contact tracking revealed they had been in contact with someone that had tested positive for Covid-19.

Some of those identified from the contact tracking were still in their underwear...screaming while being dragged from their homes and then sent to isolation facilities.

That's some serious big brother scary stuff.

In stark contrast, people here in Canada are complaining about some stores asking them to wear a medical mask prior to entry into the store.

wrbtrader

 

[Turveyd]

hong kong has less than 10 deaths.

south korea has less than 1000 deaths.

even on death per capita basis, the US is failing by this standard, relative to HK and SK.

why?

Try to understand, the Virus will not magically go away, you can do a hard lockdown and erase it from a country but as soon as you let someone in from abroad who has it, it'll be back, you won't realise it for 14days later then 2months of lockdown.

Do you think closing the borders or constant expensive lockdowns are worth the small 0.05% loss of life ??

End of the day all countrys will be hit hard, there merely pushing the time back of death.

 

[Turveyd]

I divided mortality to country population.
Norway and Finland .001.
Sweden .003.
US .005
UK .0038.
Question .002 difference Finland vs Sweden worth to close economy ?
US and UK closed and got worse.
Sweden failed to protect elderly.

Think you've added an extra zero, UK is nearing 0.06% I think old data ??

Sweden is the way to go for sure.

 

[1957may10]

Think you've added an extra zero, UK is nearing 0.06% I think old data ??

Sweden is the way to go for sure.

No that is statistical death to country population, not all exposed count.

 

[Turveyd]

No that is statistical death to country population, not all exposed count.

Yes UK 0.055% currently and Sweden 0.042% US 0.036% but has a long way to go as it's a few weeks before the UK and extra 1 behind Sweden.

 

[1957may10]

Yes UK 0.055% currently and Sweden 0.042% US 0.036% but has a long way to go as it's a few weeks before the UK and extra 1 behind Sweden.

It seams we are using different sources. My data is JH University.
101k deaths in US f.e.

 

[Turveyd]

It seams we are using different sources. My data is JH University.
101k deaths in US f.e.

102K deaths, population 328mil so USA is on 0.031% but a lot of states are wayyyy behind and NYC on 0.15% already.

A lot of USA locked down too hard / soon so it'll ramp up, 2nd wave in places, more hell and panic

 

[1957may10]

102K deaths, population 328mil so USA is on 0.031% but a lot of states are wayyyy behind and NYC on 0.15% already.

A lot of USA locked down too hard / soon so it'll ramp up, 2nd wave in places, more hell and panic

Oh OK so it’s 0.00031 or .031%. I like 0.00031 more zeros
But exposed 1737386 / 328000000 = 0.0053 that was my number.
Not dead %% but exposed.

 

[Whynottrade]

Scientific models have been remarkably good. It is in the nature of scientific method to project into future with uncertainties that are statistically estimated. It is also in the nature of science to update its estimates and models based on new information. If we had listened to scientists USA would not be "winning" in fatalities.

Unfortunately we ended up being led by the alternative -

“You have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero” Trump on COVID cases in US, Feb 26, 2020

I say, let's support science instead