The Scientific Models that Drive US Public Policy on COVID are Wildly Wrong
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I don't think the CDC can any longer be trusted now that we are in "the age of Trump" where up is down and down is up, the watch dogs are fired, and everyone else is afraid they'll be next. There is reason to believe that this data on asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 is too high by at least 100%. See https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...matic-cov-2-infected-likely-incorrect.345232/
That data corresponds to European countries counts too. You can trust it.
Multiple countries stated .3, .35, .4.
I take your point. It's safe to say that with the politicization of everything, it's difficult to divine what is and what isn't. The seemingly constant state of flux in terms of epidemiological modeling and scientific announcements about what COVID is and is not doing to our lives and our livelihoods hasn't exactly inspired confidence - quite the opposite I'm afraid.
No rational person would dispute that somehow the public policy citizen and business restrictions narrative on the State level shifted from "flatten the curve" to morph into "find a vaccine" in the midst of all this.
No rational person would dispute that somehow the public policy citizen and business restrictions narrative on the State level shifted from "flatten the curve" to morph into "find a vaccine" in the midst of all this.
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I should have checked the data before agreeing with you about Sweden. According to the data, Sweden is not winning against COVID.
https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries
Its strange that three of the countries with the largest following of online news are among the list of countries not winning: Sweden, U.S. and U.K.
Plus, there's growing concern within the population of Sweden about its mortality rate outpacing other countries. More importantly, Sweden was hoping that they would have had a much higher rate of "anti-bodies" within its population as it tried to achieve herd immunity (70 - 90% of the countries population).
Currently, only about 7% of Sweden citizens has developed anti-bodies when they had hoped they'll be 2 - 3 times higher by this time. Then again, each month is different...they may have a surge in anti-bodies over the summer and fall to get it closer to the goal of herd immunity. Then again...other countries after having done lockdowns...may surpass Sweden in its anti-bodies plan to achieve herd immunity.
I'm not sure the current percentage of citizens in the U.S. and U.K. with anti-bodies but I do know in the U.S. and Canada the health officials have been contacting survivors of Covid-19 even those that had very little health issues to donate blood and they've been ramping up more testing to help identify those sick, those healthy and those with anti-bodies.
Yet, the U.S. has had the most problems with its citizens following the social distancing procedures while Sweden and U.K. doing much better in listening to their health officials.
Regardless, the U.S. is very problematic (e.g. beaches, park parties, large communities with only one grocery store and such). It will be interesting to see if these countries make changes to their lockdown rules by end of summer especially going into the flu season where some prediction models stated the flu season plus a Covid-19 second wave will easily overwhelm the hospitals / health care system.
Hopefully the hospitals will be fully equipped to manage it to prevent such from happening.
I was talking to my girlfriend (an emergency room nurse) last night on facetime and she states they're almost ready now for the flu season with a Covid-19 second wave.
Also, we thought what was strange is that there's very little talk of the typical other illnesses that occur around the same time as the flu season that is more deadlier and last much longer in its duration will worst outcomes than Covid-19 when it becomes sepsis (septic shock)...that's Pneumonia.
A lot of talk in the media about Flu season with Covid-19 but reality its Covid-19 plus Pneumonia is what the hospitals are concerned about.
Like I said, we'll know a lot more by end of year and these prediction models will be way off the mark in many scenarios...good and bad.
wrbtrader
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But all the 1's winning, when they drop the lockdown will get a 2nd spike as it wouldn't of affected enough of the population.
On the basis UK is dropping fast and on the same list I think we can ignore that.
Sweden's real problem has been in the elderly care homes.
It's possible that Florida might have had the better course of action. Not out of the woods yet.
It's super obvious looking at the CDC data and seeing that the bulk of the deaths are in age group 65 and older. By far.
If we could really lock down and isolate the Senior population it seems like the balance is manageable.
It's possible that Florida might have had the better course of action. Not out of the woods yet.
It's super obvious looking at the CDC data and seeing that the bulk of the deaths are in age group 65 and older. By far.
If we could really lock down and isolate the Senior population it seems like the balance is manageable.
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Sweden big mistake not to prevent nursing home fatalities. When all kind of propaganda criticized Sweden approach they “forgot” to tell who was dying mostly.
UK has done no better if not worse because we aren't admitting people from nursing homes into hospitals so there dying with no treatment and chance, and all the youngster the claim its to save old people haven't cared zero facebook posts other than mine against this.
Why NYC deaths so high, taking C19 patients back to the care homes.
The only way to make a difference is for the staff to self isolate at the care home, to be fair its a big ask for a min wage job.