The Scientific Models that Drive US Public Policy on COVID are Wildly Wrong

[Turveyd]

So to be fair, Sweden are getting a bad Rap over there Care home side, when they've done better than most overs, they've just been honest about there mistakes.

In the UK all that is being discussed is that MP who drove 260miles and everyone wants sacked but the PM refuses to, they could spin this for 20years and nobody would notice there still locked down

 

[1957may10]

So to be fair, Sweden are getting a bad Rap over there Care home side, when they've done better than most overs, they've just been honest about there mistakes.

In the UK all that is being discussed is that MP who drove 260miles and everyone wants sacked but the PM refuses to, they could spin this for 20years and nobody would notice there still locked down

Playing politics even this time. Blaming each other’s.

 

[wrbtrader]

Sweden's real problem has been in the elderly care homes.

It's possible that Florida might have had the better course of action. Not out of the woods yet.

It's super obvious looking at the CDC data and seeing that the bulk of the deaths are in age group 65 and older. By far.

If we could really lock down and isolate the Senior population it seems like the balance is manageable.

All countries hit with Coronavirus have a problem with the elderly care homes and elderly living at home with family...at least in the 3 countries I'm a legal resident (France, U.S. and Canada).

There's other countries I have very close friends...Italy, South Korea and Brazil. Elderly hit heavy there in multi-dwelling homes that were living with their families.

The issue for the bad rap is that Sweden has so far failed in reaching its herd immunity goal. In fact, its population only so far has achieved a dismal 7% anti-bodies in its residents when the goal by now was to be 2 - 3 times that so that it would have a remote chance of reaching the 70 - 90% anti-bodies for its residents.

Yet, here's another issue...some countries that had lockdowns...they have higher anti-bodies for their citizens that were tested and may have even more when they have more testing available. Those countries also have a LOWER mortality rate than Sweden.

The good or bad thing is that there's still 7 months left in the year.

Sweden and everybody else (those that lockdown and those that did not lockdown) will have more citizens with anti-bodies and hopefully there's an approved vaccine / treatment for Covid-19.

By the way, I don't live in Sweden...they can experiment all they want on their population and they're still having problems with their economy because they're an export country. The countries they mainly do business with are lockdown...

Essentially, in someway...their economy is lockdown and in a few months...their residents will probably want to see changes involving their economy. Then again, as stated, I don't live in Sweden. Not sure how I would feel about the economy in Sweden in the current situation of a high mortality rate.

The bad rap Sweden has so far...its because they have so far failed to reach their goals. Then again, the bad rap that other countries have (e.g. U.S.) is because of failed leadership and the lack of PPE / testing / contact tracking.

No winners...everybody has a bad rap for mixing economy / politics / health or trying to determine which is more important.

wrbtrader

 

[1957may10]

All countries hit with Coronavirus have a problem with the elderly care homes and elderly living at home with family...at least in the 3 countries I'm a legal resident (France, U.S. and Canada).

There's other countries I have very close friends...Italy, South Korea and Brazil. Elderly hit heavy there in multi-dwelling homes that were living with their families.

The issue for the bad rap is that Sweden has so far failed in reaching its herd immunity goal. In fact, its population only so far has achieved a dismal 7% anti-bodies in its residents when the goal by now was to be 2 - 3 times that so that it would have a remote chance of reaching the 70 - 90% anti-bodies for its residents.

Yet, here's another issue...some countries that had lockdowns...they have higher anti-bodies for their citizens that were tested and may have even more when they have more testing available. Those countries also have a LOWER mortality rate than Sweden.

The good or bad thing is that there's still 7 months left in the year.

Sweden and everybody else (those that lockdown and those that did not lockdown) will have more citizens with anti-bodies and hopefully there's an approved vaccine / treatment for Covid-19.

By the way, I don't live in Sweden...they can experiment all they want on their population and they're still having problems with their economy because they're an export country. The countries they mainly do business with are lockdown...

Essentially, in someway...their economy is lockdown and in a few months...their residents will probably want to see changes involving their economy. Then again, as stated, I don't live in Sweden. Not sure how I would feel about the economy in Sweden in the current situation of a high mortality rate.

The bad rap Sweden has so far...its because they have so far failed to reach their goals. Then again, the bad rap that other countries have (e.g. U.S.) is because of failed leadership and the lack of PPE / testing / contact tracking.

No winners...everybody has a bad rap for mixing economy / politics / health or trying to determine which is more important.

wrbtrader

I divided mortality to country population.
Norway and Finland .001.
Sweden .003.
US .005
UK .0038.
Question .002 difference Finland vs Sweden worth to close economy ?
US and UK closed and got worse.
Sweden failed to protect elderly.

 

[wrbtrader]

I divided mortality to country population.
Norway and Finland .001.
Sweden .003.
US .005
UK .0038.
Question .002 difference Finland vs Sweden worth to close economy ?
US and UK closed and got worse.
Sweden failed to protect elderly.

I don't live in Sweden nor do I know anyone there that owns a business nor do I know anyone there that's an elderly. I do know Sweden did not lockdown and they are primarily an export trade country. Unfortunately, Sweden does business with those countries that did shut down and that has a negative impact on the economy of Sweden.

In contrast, I am a resident of France, Canada and the U.S...own homes in these countries and have family members in these countries.

For those countries, the answer will be YES because of the lack of PPE, poor health care system for the elderly and the easily transmission to communities with underlying health problems.

I'm currently in Québec, Canada...its bad that we had to bring in the military healthcare workers..soldiers to manage the system. That's fucked up and its been a bad system since the government made big cuts in the healthcare for the elderly back in the early 80's...forcing many employed here to have multiple jobs just to pay their rent / mortgages / put food on the table / support their family...

A quick environment for easy transmission from elderly home to another elderly home and to family members.

This was a healthcare problem (lack of PPE, lack of front line workers, low pay for workers) BEFORE the Pandemic.

It's a very different culture here than the rest of Canada. Cultural similar to France. This is not a cultural that accepts wearing medical masks (except for healthcare workers) when interacting with others. Its a touchy, huggy, in your face conversation culture and you give kisses on the cheek with those you know.

Québec was clapping itself on the back in the early part of the shut down with low infection numbers. That has changed very quickly because of the cultural differences mentioned and the existing healthcare problems in the elderly homes that had nothing to do with the Pandemic.

• I now see more people wearing medical masks in the grocery stores but maybe because of some recent grocery store Covid-19 outbreaks that has people now taking this more seriously.

Québec is now LEADING in the infection / mortality rates among all the provinces here in Canada. Yeah, a shutdown was necessary, we needed help from the military but we have a strong economy that will bounce back quickly after the Pandemic.

As stated, I can't answer that question about Sweden but I can answer it about France, U.S. and Canada (Québec)...the economy needed to shut down but the cluster fuck prior (as in January, February and early March) put these countries in the position a shut down. Heck, our prime minister wife became ill...infected with Covid-19 after travelling in Europe when there was an advisory travel warning to Europe by the travel agencies...not the WHO.

Had that clusterfuck not happen...well...we wouldn't be having this conversation. It was preventable and now its a domino effect...jobs and economies fall too.

• Don't forget something else important, China allowed its dual citizens to leave China and go back to their other countries prior to shutting down. China gave them a 2 - 3 day warning to leave or stay.

Over a million people left...carrying Covid-19 back to France, Canada, U.S. and other countries but I'm not aware of the population makeup in Sweden because I don't live there but I do follow the numbers.

Sweden not doing as well as it expected after not being locked down...it did in fact put the economy above the health concerns of its residents. Outsiders congratulated them for that while others shame them.

The good thing...they got the message early and didn't clusterfuck it up with politics but their people are worried about their growing health problems with the Covid-19.

Thus, you really gotta to be living there to know if its worth it or not but everybody failed to protect the elderly and everybody failed to have proper PPE supplies.

Hopefully they will learn and be ready for the next Pandemic that now seems to come every 10 - 20 years. The next one may not be a problem for the elderly...it could me a problem for children (ages 1 - 15)...similar to the chicken pox or polio although I believe these were more in the category of an Epidemic and travelling wasn't like what it is today...not easily passed from country to country.

Thus, very easy to isolate communities to prevent the spread. Governments didn't warn their citizens to leave or stay.

By the way, there's still a problem here in Canada. Air travel has resumed and people are arriving in from other countries including China. There's no health checks...people are just reminded to self isolate for 14 - 15 days upon arrival and to notify health officials at the airports if they feel sick. Yeah, like that will happen.

wrbtrader

 

[jj1111]

hong kong has less than 10 deaths.

south korea has less than 1000 deaths.

even on death per capita basis, the US is failing by this standard, relative to HK and SK.

why?

 

[Whynottrade]

hong kong has less than 10 deaths.

south korea has less than 1000 deaths.

even on death per capita basis, the US is failing by this standard, relative to HK and SK.

why?

Quality of bleach

 

[wrbtrader]

hong kong has less than 10 deaths.

south korea has less than 1000 deaths.

even on death per capita basis, the US is failing by this standard, relative to HK and SK.

why?

Cultural difference involving wearing of protective masks, better testing of its population, better contact tracking of those infected and better supplies of PPE along with other reasons like better control over its population.

I lived in Seoul, Korea for almost 2 years after stationed there in the military.

People already wearing medical masks because of pollution / smog problems for plus 20 years. Mask wearing is a normal aspect of the cultural and its fashionable...big business too for the street vendors.

I saw a documentary a few days ago about China...their street cams and drones are all over the cities...warning people to put on their masks when it catches someone not with a mask or wearing one around their neck and not on their face.

That's big brother monitoring scary stuff.

People in Canada and U.S. wouldn't allow that type of monitoring by its government.

wrbtrader

 

[1957may10]

I don't live in Sweden nor do I know anyone there that owns a business nor do I know anyone there that's an elderly. I do know Sweden did not lockdown and they are primarily an export trade country. Unfortunately, Sweden does business with those countries that did shut down and that has a negative impact on the economy of Sweden.

In contrast, I am a resident of France, Canada and the U.S...own homes in these countries and have family members in these countries.

For those countries, the answer will be YES because of the lack of PPE, poor health care system for the elderly and the easily transmission to communities with underlying health problems.

I'm currently in Québec, Canada...its bad that we had to bring in the military healthcare workers..soldiers to manage the system. That's fucked up and its been a bad system since the government made big cuts in the healthcare for the elderly back in the early 80's...forcing many employed here to have multiple jobs just to pay their rent / mortgages / put food on the table / support their family...

A quick environment for easy transmission from elderly home to another elderly home and to family members.

This was a healthcare problem (lack of PPE, lack of front line workers, low pay for workers) BEFORE the Pandemic.

It's a very different culture here than the rest of Canada. Cultural similar to France. This is not a cultural that accepts wearing medical masks (except for healthcare workers) when interacting with others. Its a touchy, huggy, in your face conversation culture and you give kisses on the cheek with those you know.

Québec was clapping itself on the back in the early part of the shut down with low infection numbers. That has changed very quickly because of the cultural differences mentioned and the existing healthcare problems in the elderly homes that had nothing to do with the Pandemic.

• I now see more people wearing medical masks in the grocery stores but maybe because of some recent grocery store Covid-19 outbreaks that has people now taking this more seriously.

Québec is now LEADING in the infection / mortality rates among all the provinces here in Canada. Yeah, a shutdown was necessary, we needed help from the military but we have a strong economy that will bounce back quickly after the Pandemic.

As stated, I can't answer that question about Sweden but I can answer it about France, U.S. and Canada (Québec)...the economy needed to shut down but the cluster fuck prior (as in January, February and early March) put these countries in the position a shut down. Heck, our prime minister wife became ill...infected with Covid-19 after travelling in Europe when there was an advisory travel warning to Europe by the travel agencies...not the WHO.

Had that clusterfuck not happen...well...we wouldn't be having this conversation. It was preventable and now its a domino effect...jobs and economies fall too.

• Don't forget something else important, China allowed its dual citizens to leave China and go back to their other countries prior to shutting down. China gave them a 2 - 3 day warning to leave or stay.

Over a million people left...carrying Covid-19 back to France, Canada, U.S. and other countries but I'm not aware of the population makeup in Sweden because I don't live there but I do follow the numbers.

Sweden not doing as well as it expected after not being locked down...it did in fact put the economy above the health concerns of its residents. Outsiders congratulated them for that while others shame them.

The good thing...they got the message early and didn't clusterfuck it up with politics but their people are worried about their growing health problems with the Covid-19.

Thus, you really gotta to be living there to know if its worth it or not but everybody failed to protect the elderly and everybody failed to have proper PPE supplies.

Hopefully they will learn and be ready for the next Pandemic that now seems to come every 10 - 20 years. The next one may not be a problem for the elderly...it could me a problem for children (ages 1 - 15)...similar to the chicken pox or polio although I believe these were more in the category of an Epidemic and travelling wasn't like what it is today...not easily passed from country to country.

Thus, very easy to isolate communities to prevent the spread. Governments didn't warn their citizens to leave or stay.

By the way, there's still a problem here in Canada. Air travel has resumed and people are arriving in from other countries including China. There's no health checks...people are just reminded to self isolate for 14 - 15 days upon arrival and to notify health officials at the airports if they feel sick. Yeah, like that will happen.

wrbtrader

Of course I was not as smart on March how I’m smart today.
However I would tell it and you will be surprised.
In my opinion, US should only shut down NY, NJ, CA, iL and even only where big crowd accumulated. The rest of country should be precaution but open.
A big big mistake made based on China, Italy, NYC experience.
Do you know how mach damage done besides covid19.

 

[1957may10]

Cultural difference involving wearing of protective masks, better testing of its population, better contact tracking of those infected and better supplies of PPE along with other reasons like better control over its population.

I lived in Seoul, Korea for almost 2 years after stationed there in the military.

People already wearing medical masks because of pollution / smog problems for plus 20 years. Mask wearing is a normal aspect of the cultural and its fashionable...big business too for the street vendors.

I saw a documentary a few days ago about China...their street cams and drones are all over the cities...warning people to put on their masks when it catches someone not with a mask or wearing one around their neck and not on their face.

That's big brother monitoring scary stuff.

People in Canada and U.S. wouldn't allow that type of monitoring by its government.

wrbtrader

Sadly that is true, but Chinese did not allow people go outside