The Scientific Models that Drive US Public Policy on COVID are Wildly Wrong

[wrbtrader]

Not sure why the response to COVID-19 was such a clusterfuck. It's not like there weren't other recent responses from which to follow:

1. The SAR outbreak in 2003.
2. The Ebola outbreak in 2010.

Poor leadership, poor execution of Pandemic plans, fresh off trade war threats, +1000 different prediction models, some countries already had surveillance in place of its population while others did not because of freedom rights, cultural differences involving wearing protective masks, growth of the internet and many other reasons...

Throw in some conspiracy theorists on both sides of the camp with large followers.

It was a disaster waiting to happen since the last Pandemic.

• The sad / scary part is that the year isn't over yet. We still have another 7 months to go and we still have not had the infamous 2nd wave.

Whatever the numbers are today, it will continue to grow and its too late to play the blame game, who's right, who's wrong, no who guessed it right...

Those that shutdown are paying the economic price and those that did not shut down are paying the economic price because of their trade connections to those that did shut down.

No winners...all losers in a Pandemic.

Remember something, the algorithms that were created...they came up with different prediction models / forecasts or whatever you want to call it. It's like listening to someone chirp about getting it right while the other person next to you is worried about someone in the hospital that's not old, with no underlying health issues...on life support from Covid-19.

The one thing they all got right in those models...the U.S. will lead in the Covid-19 infections / death with Brazil not too far behind...this was predicted back in March.

I bet they're not worried about their job at this point. They're only worried about just breathing.

P.S. There's a Sushi shop in my favorite grocery store...run by a Chinese woman. She wears PPE and uses a hand sanitizer while preparing the food. Nobody (exception below) buys from her. In contrast, it was the most popular spot in the store prior to the Pandemic.

Yet, 40 - 50 feet away is a small bakery (e.g. donuts, cakes, pies, bread and such). They do not wear PPE nor use hand sanitizer between clients while preparing the food and talking to each other...over the food. Not that popular prior to the Pandemic...

There's now a line consistently with people waiting to buy something at that bakery and they have not change their habits. Now that's fucked up but I'm still eating my Sushi.

Asian woman will go out of business while the bakery is in position to hire more employees.

wrbtrader

 

[Turveyd]

0.3% or less isn't a pandemic, it's a BAD FLU, if everyone could start using the right words that'd be great LOL

 

[Turveyd]

Poor leadership, poor execution of Pandemic plans, fresh off trade war threats, +1000 different prediction models, some countries already had surveillance in place of its population while others did not because of freedom rights, cultural differences involving wearing protective masks, growth of the internet and many other reasons...

Throw in some conspiracy theorists on both sides of the camp with large followers.

It was a disaster waiting to happen since the last Pandemic.

• The sad / scary part is that the year isn't over yet. We still have another 7 months to go and we still have not had the infamous 2nd wave.

Whatever the numbers are today, it will continue to grow and its too late to play the blame game, who's right, who's wrong, no who guessed it right...

Those that shutdown are paying the economic price and those that did not shut down are paying the economic price because of their trade connections to those that did shut down.

No winners...all losers in a Pandemic.

Remember something, the algorithms that were created...they came up with different prediction models / forecasts or whatever you want to call it. It's like listening to someone chirp about getting it right while the other person next to you is worried about someone in the hospital that's not old, with no underlying health issues...on life support from Covid-19.

The one thing they all got right in those models...the U.S. will lead in the Covid-19 infections / death with Brazil not too far behind...this was predicted back in March.

I bet they're not worried about their job at this point. They're only worried about just breathing.

P.S. There's a Sushi shop in my favorite grocery store...run by a Chinese woman. She wears PPE and uses a hand sanitizer while preparing the food. Nobody (exception below) buys from her. In contrast, it was the most popular spot in the store prior to the Pandemic.

Yet, 40 - 50 feet away is a small bakery (e.g. donuts, cakes, pies, bread and such). They do not wear PPE nor use hand sanitizer between clients while preparing the food and talking to each other...over the food. Not that popular prior to the Pandemic...

There's now a line consistently with people waiting to buy something at that bakery and they have not change their habits. Now that's fucked up but I'm still eating my Sushi.

Asian woman will go out of business while the bakery is in position to hire more employees.

wrbtrader

Still stuck on the fear lets explain it.

<0.3% = None of that stuff is required, it's not a damn plague.

WHO have said today, chances of a 2nd Wave anywhere that's already been hit hard is low, so forget 2nd wave in the USA and UK and Italy and Spain and others.

Accept you bought into the FEAR and move on and stop trying to create more FEAR, it's FEAR that is doing all the harm here, not the virus.

 

[1957may10]

Here's the problem. We have devastated our economy and devastated millions of people's financial well being over hyperbolic epidemiological models. And we have endangered ourselves in future pandemic outbreaks because so many citizens are now understandably distrustful of what the epidemiologists and immunologists are saying. And because of the hyperbole, some States are still keeping businesses shut down, shelter in place orders intact, and are still talking about schools being closed for the Fall of '20.

Dr. Fauci has been all over the place on this. One extreme to the other. We went from "flattening the curve" in March and gravitated to "find a cure" before our lives can resume.

New York and New Jersey literally sentenced thousands of seniors to death by moving infected hospital patients into senior assisted living homes - all in an effort to keep open hospital bed capacity. They sacrificed the elderly for the young and immunized the nursing homes from legal tort liability. Only the young never needed the hospital capacity. The US Military hospital ships, the military hospital tents and staff, the thousands of ventilators that were never used.

Dr. Fauci and the epidemiologists need to admit that they were wrong and they need to issue a call for Americans to get back to their 'normal' lives. Just letting certain States continue on with overbearing and draconian shelter-in-place orders and keeping businesses closed is causing irreparable and permanent damage and to people's lives, livelihoods and quality of life.

The epidemiologists and immunologists are causing far more harm to citizens and our Countries than COVID. There is no sense of proportion, no balancing of risks, and they are simply sewing distrust and disdain for their profession and their future predictions and warnings in the eyes of the public and with leaders. They are their own worst enemies.

Wow, well done. Great article, I wish somebody from governors and local government will read and get it. Well they never learn it.

 

[wrbtrader]

I've stated the facts and will continue buying my Sushi from the Chinese woman...no fear even though I do have an underlying health condition.

In contrast, you continue stating your fear and anguish although this time you didn't mention about being "upset" that you couldn't buy a hamburger from McDonalds.

By the way, my academic background is in science. No fear...just following the facts and openly stated where my source of facts come from...quite different than you on many occasions.

The good thing...you've seem to stopped bragging about giving your pals the Covid-19 infection. Haven't seen you mention that once in this thread. BRAVO...maybe you learned that's just tacky..trailer park like.

When you become prepare and when the 2nd wave happens...hopefully you'll be OK and they got it wrong about people that's been infected are most likely able to get infected "again" when the 2nd wave hits...

We will not know for sure until the end of year regardless to what the prediction models say today. The good thing...there's a few prediction models that say you'll be OK when the 2nd wave hits because you now have antibodies.

Yet, I recommend you keep washing your hands for 20 seconds and/or use a hand sanitizer after touching common surface areas (e.g. counters at McDonalds).

Here's another fact...there has NEVER been a Pandemic without a 2nd wave. As stated multiple times to you before today...that 2nd wave will be worst or less than the current wave. It really doesn't matter...

• The numbers infection / death will increase. I don't need a prediction model to know that.

You can now go back to Facebook (haven for spreading fear) in which you "admitted" in a recent past thread that you get most of your information from there and admitted it "scares" (maybe not the exact word) you. By the way, I myself don't use Facebook and I did recommend to you once before to stop using Facebook...info from there does not scare me nor will I transfer the info to other social media.

On that note...completely happy without fear nor spreading fear. Girlfriend has a supply of PPE along with her co-workers, kids playing in the backyard on the trampoline, had a good workout early this morning on the St. Lawrence river with my new scull...

A beautiful sunny day although sticky with humidity...no fear being spread.

P.S. I didn't wear a mask when I worked out this morning although I saw a few sail boats, water skidos, kayaks...some wearing a mask nor when I picked up my Sushi from the Chinese woman at the store.

P.S.S. Those I care about have not lost employment during this Pandemic / Shutdown. I'm completely grateful for that. Will be buying travel (plane) tickets to fly back to Chicago after the borders open...no fear nor spreading fear...spending money to help a little.

What did you do today with all that fear...you buying local products to help your economy ???

wrbtrader

 

[tommcginnis]

By the way, my academic background is in science. No fear...just following the facts...

Killjoy.

 

[bone]

I saw a piece on CBS News three days ago where Michael Chertoff is advising the DC mayor not to reopen until there is a COVID vaccine in place. Which is just freaking insane.

At least now public health officials are openly discussing the very worrying trend of a sharp spike in the use of anti-depressants, alcohol sales, and marijuana dispensary purchases.

 

[1957may10]

I saw a piece on CBS News three days ago where Michael Chertoff is advising the DC mayor not to reopen until there is a COVID vaccine in place. Which is just freaking insane.

At least now public health officials are openly discussing the very worrying trend of a sharp spike in the use of anti-depressants, alcohol sales, and marijuana dispensary purchases.

He is really stupid or politically biased or both. This time will show who is who.

 

[wrbtrader]

...At least now public health officials are openly discussing the very worrying trend of a sharp spike in the use of anti-depressants, alcohol sales, and marijuana dispensary purchases.

This has been a hot topic, worrying concern prior to the Pandemic. Heck, I remember others here at ET many years ago wondering about what stocks to buy to cash in on these worrying trends.

wrbtrader

 

[bone]

What gives me a bit of optimism is that everyone is now talking about quality of life - maybe more than they ever have in recent memory. Individuals and civic leaders. Even crusty 'ole Fauci stated something to the effect a few days ago that isolating people and destroying economies and livelihoods was a very worrying development.

We should be working on and taking good care of ourselves. Exercising, losing weight, eating right, building up our immune systems. The CDC said a few days ago that 35% of people in the US who contract COVID never develop symptoms.

If you have elderly or compromised family members, maybe don't let them go to church just yet. But we can certainly be smart and make good choices and get on with our lives.

This has been a hot topic, worrying concern prior to the Pandemic. Heck, I remember others here at ET many years ago wondering about what stocks to buy to cash in on these worrying trends.

wrbtrader