The S&P has topped

The S&P has topped

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March rate hike already priced into the bond and equity markets.

Getting away from this artificial QE pumping is a necessary aspect for moving the domestic US away from financially engineered growth and consumption to a more balanced economy which encourages more savings and domestic production. A modest and progressive rise in interest rates and price inflation shouldn't hurt equity valuations. Aggressive interest rate hikes would of course be detrimental, but I just don't think that is in the cards for the near term given how historically long the current interest rate environment has been incredibly depressed. There are a couple generations of Americans who have no idea what a "normal" interest rate environment looks like.
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
--Could happen but odds don't favor it-- This is why I have not bought back in yet. I am bullish on the market but would like to see a proper pullback before getting long again.
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My guess is that the market has been making a little bit of room this week for a strong jobs report tomorrow. Good rallys require corrections and pullbacks - you can't have buyers without sellers.

If you see a strong initial price rally after tomorrow's report quickly rejected by the market, that would tell me that a strong population of sellers are looking for improved opportunities. If we rally hard and the close is strong, there's a good chance that buyers are back in control. Clues from early next week in terms of market follow-up to the jobs report will be important for fresh longs or fresh shorts coming into the market.
 
bone said:
March rate hike already priced into the bond and equity markets.

Getting away from this artificial QE pumping is a necessary aspect for moving the domestic US away from financially engineered growth and consumption to a more balanced economy which encourages more savings and domestic production. A modest and progressive rise in interest rates and price inflation shouldn't hurt equity valuations.
More...

Nah! (The first part...) Not so long as we continue to sink (in price, and climb in volume) as soon as Europe closes. That's the DAX floating us. Oi!
Well (with another look at the mkt), it's 1500ET, so if we don't continue that post-1400 swoon, I'd say you're right. The last hour of this past week -- "Phew!"

But (I think) you're right about the "modest and progressive rise" narrative -- I think I heard 2-part harmony on that from Draghi this morning. "Steady helm, making progress, get some headroom, etc etc." Nice to see.

Anyway, if we can hold 0 or go + (we're +0.50 as I hit <send> here), I'd say the pricing *is*mostly in. It's been so controlled, though -- til the end of the day hits, and people get nervous that their day's agenda isn't going to get filled. (So, somebody hit "SELL!" a bit early today -- anticipating.... what?)

Best wishes, all!
 
volente_00 said:
Top confirmed now

:D
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Semantics are important here as to your true meaning of the word TOP.

If you think that we are at the top of the bull market range channel we've been trading in since early 2016, then by all means leave your profit target at 2331 and take your victory lap! As I read your original post, your profit target of 2331 told me that you were calling the top to the ongoing bull channel.

Likewise, if by using the term "top" you mean the resistance put in during 2015, then consider moving your profit target to 219.

If you are referring to THE "top", then move your price target to 156.

I'd be interested to know your perspective on the term "top". In any event, I hope you get 'em tomorrow.
 
bone said:
My guess is that the market has been making a little bit of room this week for a strong jobs report tomorrow. Good rallys require corrections and pullbacks - you can't have buyers without sellers.

If you see a strong initial price rally after tomorrow's report quickly rejected by the market, that would tell me that a strong population of sellers are looking for improved opportunities. If we rally hard and the close is strong, there's a good chance that buyers are back in control. Clues from early next week in terms of market follow-up to the jobs report will be important for fresh longs or fresh shorts coming into the market.
More...
I know this is a painfully simple observation, but when JNJ tops the DOW 30 the day before a potential market moving event, it seems to portend there is some bias to a sell-off on whatever news is forthcoming.
Might not be the case for tomorrow.... although JNJ is at the top of the pile today. Who knows.
 
It would be orgasmic if we reverted back to the days of the surprise, unexpected Civilian Employment Labor Report.

My personal biggest P&L days ever.
 
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