How about 4 out of every 5 trading days? 3.5 of 5 days? You don't have to be right every time...you need to quit with the ABSOLUTES.
The S&P has topped
- Thread starter volente_00
- Start date
Agree we are still in a bull market but certain sectors are starting to puke. As those sectors start to tail off it will be harder to make higher highs. So, I think a pull back is in the near future. As mentioned several times I suspect a 5-7% drop from 2400 to around 2200-2250 before we see signs of bounce that MAY challenge the all time highs again. This bounce that started today will likely result in a lower high or double top based on what I see on the charts. Of course we have to see what plays out.
How about 4 out of every 5 trading days? 3.5 of 5 days? You don't have to be right every time...you need to quit with the ABSOLUTES.
Amen brother. There are NO absolutes in trading. If you require an absolute this is NOT your place to be.
Drank my own Kool-Aid. Saw good volume and an declining TRIN and an inclining TICK, and a (fat, lately) vol of 11.5+, and sold top-side while the VIX-ing was good. Nottttt so sure after the fact, though, since it kept going a couple of points into positive territory, including after-hours.
Did I get whip-sawed? That's my own current question. Bought back stuff for tomorrow for nickels and dimes ("And that's *good*!") but now have on "narrow -ish" stuff for the 15th ("Gamma risk!"), and more than I'd like for the 24th and 31st. ("Vega risk!")
Wheel sí. If we get a pop and a vol decline, I'll be happy. If we get a pop and an event-driven increase in vol........ that would boil my bacon a bit. But with the vol, you suck up, buy it up, and either sell it out a week or so, or sell it further on the same expiry, maybe bumping in 6 spreads where you had 5, to remain revenue-neutral. I know IB loves me, with the commissions generated just to remain flat...... Sheeesh.
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ES currently 72
This is the IHS scenario that I previously spoke of. Hold of 60 takes us back to low 90's 90/92 and creates the lower high before next move down.
My daytrade is short 72.5
With a target of 63's
Stop is 77.5
Targets are 65's and 63's
Then long 60's-63's with an objective of 89's-90's
Stop is 2355
Gotta juice the calls back up and shake out week shorts
Trade 3 is short 89's-92's with stop at 2397 and objective 1 of 73's-74's
Total risk is ~18 to make ~54
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REITs starting to get shit on.
I watch VNQ as a general REIT ETF, but there's a few other tickers of note that are of course getting hammered on: ESS (part of SPX), AVB (part of SPX), etc and it's not like the nosebleed level real estate markets are going to last forever (c'mon we've seen this circus before guys)...
Here's a funky chart I've been monitoring for a while:
It's the relative strength of NDX vs SPX vs RUT (a relative strength fly in a way, e.g. (NDX/SPX) / (SPX/RUT), or more generally, risk on stuff (NQ, TF) vs less risk on stuff (SPX)). Of course index composition changes over time can affect things but that's not the point, the point is that it clearly turned downwards around 2017/02/23 as compared to the post brexit and election risk-on rips in mid and late 2016.
If you think this is really the SPX topping, I don't know why you're going for 54 points. How about 540?
I watch VNQ as a general REIT ETF, but there's a few other tickers of note that are of course getting hammered on: ESS (part of SPX), AVB (part of SPX), etc and it's not like the nosebleed level real estate markets are going to last forever (c'mon we've seen this circus before guys)...
Here's a funky chart I've been monitoring for a while:
It's the relative strength of NDX vs SPX vs RUT (a relative strength fly in a way, e.g. (NDX/SPX) / (SPX/RUT), or more generally, risk on stuff (NQ, TF) vs less risk on stuff (SPX)). Of course index composition changes over time can affect things but that's not the point, the point is that it clearly turned downwards around 2017/02/23 as compared to the post brexit and election risk-on rips in mid and late 2016.
If you think this is really the SPX topping, I don't know why you're going for 54 points. How about 540?
I am of course rooting for you since I got long yesterday per The ES Journal.
Gathering 2 ES pts on wins requires you to be right every day. It's not a good way to trade.
Overshot and stopped me. Still have a touch of 66 in play
Failure to close above 2380 today will further confirm this top
March 240 spy calls eroded 92% on the down move but currently up 100% today