The S&P has topped

[volente_00]

REITs starting to get shit on.

I watch VNQ as a general REIT ETF, but there's a few other tickers of note that are of course getting hammered on: ESS (part of SPX), AVB (part of SPX), etc and it's not like the nosebleed level real estate markets are going to last forever (c'mon we've seen this circus before guys)...

View attachment 171525

Here's a funky chart I've been monitoring for a while:

View attachment 171527

It's the relative strength of NDX vs SPX vs RUT (a relative strength fly in a way, e.g. (NDX/SPX) / (SPX/RUT), or more generally, risk on stuff (NQ, TF) vs less risk on stuff (SPX)). Of course index composition changes over time can affect things but that's not the point, the point is that it clearly turned downwards around 2017/02/23 as compared to the post brexit and election risk-on rips in mid and late 2016.



If you think this is really the SPX topping, I don't know why you're going for 54 points. How about 540?

Those were day trade targets

My longer term targets are posted on first few pages of this thread

 

[bone]

Love him or despise him - Trump has had a very real effect on US economic prospects in terms of corporate optimism.

 

[volente_00]

Overshot and stopped me. Still have a touch of 66 in play
Failure to close above 2380 today will further confirm this top

March 240 spy calls eroded 92% on the down move but currently up 100% today

Last night took an L, but tonight I bounce back
Wake up every morning, by the night, I count stacks

 

[volente_00]

ES currently 72

This is the IHS scenario that I previously spoke of. Hold of 60 takes us back to low 90's 90/92 and creates the lower high before next move down.

My daytrade is short 72.5
With a target of 63's
Stop is 77.5
Targets are 65's and 63's

Then long 60's-63's with an objective of 89's-90's
Stop is 2355
Gotta juice the calls back up and shake out week shorts

Trade 3 is short 89's-92's with stop at 2397 and objective 1 of 73's-74's


Total risk is ~18 to make ~54

Exited daytrade long at 72.75

 

[Pekelo]

There is an interesting difference between the NDX and SPX. The NDX did put in the 2nd top on Friday with a nice RSI divergence. My prediction was based on the SPX though and that wasn't even able to stay above the SMA line on the daily chart. The Dow had the same weakness as the SPX. So we are ready for the drop, everything is in place now, even if the SPX didn't reach the predicted 2395...

 

[Buy1Sell2]

There is an interesting difference between the NDX and SPX. The NDX did put in the 2nd top on Friday with a nice RSI divergence. My prediction was based on the SPX though and that wasn't even able to stay above the SMA line on the daily chart. The Dow had the same weakness as the SPX. So we are ready for the drop, everything is in place now, even if the SPX didn't reach the predicted 2395...

Market is still in long mode here. I will stay long until market makes an obvious reversal.---or will take profits like I did last week when an obvious profit signal arose.

 

[bone]

Yep, bull market range channel we've been trading in since early 2016 is still intact. Bears got no love from Friday's number, and March rate hike is already baked into the cake.

Will need some heavy lifting from the deep pockets for a sustained timeframe to change the momentum. The longer (timewise) a market trades near recent new highs or lows the more accepting the market participant consensus is of that valuation [Market Profile-ish].

 

[Buy1Sell2]

The board is next to silent as short term day-traders are glued to their screens looking at the tick or 1 minute charts and trying to find something, anything that would signal an entry. The entry may never come on this, the first trading day of the week.--or it may--- I remain long here.

 

[volente_00]

The board is next to silent as short term day-traders are glued to their screens looking at the tick or 1 minute charts and trying to find something, anything that would signal an entry. The entry may never come on this, the first trading day of the week.--or it may--- I remain long here.

Bulls are on spring break


12 days later the S&P still remains topped

 

[murray t turtle]

Bulls are on spring break


12 days later the S&P still remains topped

Thats OK; SPY, SDY,DIA,QQQ........ shorts help fuel rally, 2. TGT[ Target stock] is still in a Bear market + has been Bear target past 2 years/ 200dma. NOT a prediction.