The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

poll spin? or 2 days worth of polls. Jem reports... you decide.
By the way that economist poll.
has Democrats plus 10 and the 26 strong dems vs 11 strong Reps.

It takes a very skewed poll to have clinton in the lead... considering how much she trails with independents.

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here are todays polls... where there are 4 way polls I picked the 4 way... since this is a 4 way race.

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. SteinIBD/TIPP TrackingClinton 44, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 2 Tie
General Election: Trump vs. ClintonIBD/TIPP TrackingClinton 44, Trump 44 Tie
General Election: Trump vs. ClintonLA Times/USC TrackingClinton 42, Trump 48 Trump +6
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. SteinABC/Wash Post TrackingClinton 46, Trump 46, Johnson 3, Stein 2 Tie
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. SteinRasmussen ReportsClinton 44, Trump 44, Johnson 5, Stein 2 Tie
General Election: Trump vs. ClintonEconomist/YouGovClinton 48, Trump 45 Clinton +3
 
A pollster walks in a bar and asks
Do you know why that LA times poll has Trump in the lead by 6?
And the Bar tenders says no... why?

The pollster says... because its good.
 
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TLDR... Nate Silver says close race clinton lose the electoral college.



Nate Silvers 538 said given stated yesterday... that given a 3 or 4 point lead in the polls it looked like Clinton had a 70 percent chance of winning but.... they then discussed what if the race tighten to less than 2 points.... (which it has if you look at today's polls.)


The question is how robust Clinton’s lead would be to a modest error in the polling, or a further tightening of the race. So here’s a second set of simulations, drawn from cases in which Trump or Clinton win the national popular vote by less than 2 percentage points:

see a chart of simulations here http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-yes-donald-trump-has-a-path-to-victory/


This isn’t a secure map for Clinton at all. In a race where the popular vote is roughly tied nationally, Colorado and New Hampshire are toss-ups, and Clinton’s chances are only 60 to 65 percent in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. She has quite a gauntlet to run through to hold her firewall, and she doesn’t have a lot of good backup options. While she could still hold on to Nevada, it doesn’t have enough electoral votes to make up for the loss of Michigan or Pennsylvania. And while she could win North Carolina or Florida if polls hold where they are now, they’d verge on being lost causes if the race shifts by another few points toward Trump.




In fact, Clinton would probably lose the Electoral College in the event of a very close national popular vote.
 
Note... against all lefty ridcule the algo's prediction of herding has taken place - many of the crooked polls adjusted.

So the algo has been triggered...

It had Hillary in the lead but within the margin... but now its seems to be saying on Nov. 7th it will call it for Trump. That 16 point lead with independents translates to a convincing victory - if it holds.

That "if" is the algos main objection to calling it for Trump today. The odds are the mass media will do something big and anti trump over the weekend.

developing..
 
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Ricter said:
This one's about damage control. Besides, Drumpf is going on trial for child rape soon.
More...


What damage?
Mrs. Medicated is going to have to invade Syria to appease the Saudi and Qatar donors. And who knows what other US owned properties are going to be sold to foreignors.
The banks will likely see regulations vanish.
Obamacare will have to be chopped in order to bring back the insurance companies.
How could things be much worse under Trump?
 
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