In my opinion, Clinton's going to win comfortably; I don't look at any polls at all. But if you truly believe Trump will win, you should buy tons of short term puts on US indexes because a Trump win will trigger a stock market correction of some size. Do tell us if you've done so and I'll be the first to congratulate you for following your gut and getting rich off the result.
The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo
- Thread starter jem
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In my opinion, Clinton's going to win comfortably; I don't look at any polls at all. But if you truly believe Trump will win, you should buy tons of short term puts on US indexes because a Trump win will trigger a stock market correction of some size. Do tell us if you've done so and I'll be the first to congratulate you for following your gut and getting rich off the result.
why do you all confuse the fact that I say polls are slanted with the idea that I think trump will win? I have said many times it looks to me like the national race is close after you make these polls use the 2012 template. I have said the state polls would be what matters and I don't have enough data to put them into the 2012 template.
After you unskew the polls to the 2012 template I suspect hillary is winning, but its close. I note that Trump may have a lot of people vote for him, who will not state it to a pollster.
So in short the polls say hillary but I hope they are wrong and have reason to believe Trump has a chance.
After you unskew the polls to the 2012 template I suspect hillary is winning, but its close. I note that Trump may have a lot of people vote for him, who will not state it to a pollster.
So in short the polls say hillary but I hope they are wrong and have reason to believe Trump has a chance.
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in the ibd 4 way trump is winning and this is a 4 way race. Do you really think 2 way polls are useful now.
jem,I have previously stated who's ahead in the majority of polls is the biggest factor in polling in The Tony Algo. IBD is a good poll but one good poll having Trump +1 does not outweigh 11 good polls having Hillary ahead.
those are not good polls if they don't release their templates. How would you know what they are doing?
nor are they good polls if they are more democrat rich than the 2012 election.
which even then is a bit of a gift to hillary because she is not nearly as liked as obama was by democrats.
nor are they good polls if they are more democrat rich than the 2012 election.
which even then is a bit of a gift to hillary because she is not nearly as liked as obama was by democrats.
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Here is my thesis.
It looks like hillary is winning in some by not all of the national polls. if you apply the 2012 template to the data collected the pollsters then the race is likely in the margin of error.
As far the electoral college. I don't have the data or time to apply the 2012 template.
So what could go wrong.
The people don't vote like they did in 2012.
so what is the risk.
I think there is a small risk that hillary out performs and trump under performs.
There is a large risk that obama's voters don't show up in the same number.
There is also a chance more people vote for Trump than admit to pollsters
There is also a large chance that Trump has more voters than the 2012 template would model.
So in short. If this were a 2012 election hillary might be winning.
But.. there is a chance this won't be like 2012.
If it is different. Its more likely to to swing to trump than hillary. imo.
It looks like hillary is winning in some by not all of the national polls. if you apply the 2012 template to the data collected the pollsters then the race is likely in the margin of error.
As far the electoral college. I don't have the data or time to apply the 2012 template.
So what could go wrong.
The people don't vote like they did in 2012.
so what is the risk.
I think there is a small risk that hillary out performs and trump under performs.
There is a large risk that obama's voters don't show up in the same number.
There is also a chance more people vote for Trump than admit to pollsters
There is also a large chance that Trump has more voters than the 2012 template would model.
So in short. If this were a 2012 election hillary might be winning.
But.. there is a chance this won't be like 2012.
If it is different. Its more likely to to swing to trump than hillary. imo.
A good example of the media trying to shape a vote was in 1980. In a Gallup poll released on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Jimmy Carter was leading Ronald Reagan 47 – 39. Two weeks later Reagan won in such a landslide that Carter conceded before California was closed.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/201...polls-shows-trump-win-and-possible-landslide/
This past week a number of polls show Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by various margins. One poll last week reported by NBC/WSJ showed Hillary ahead by 11. However, Truthfeed pointed out that NBC/WSJ didn’t mention that the poll was created by a Hillary Super PAC.
It’s also well known that the Monmouth University poll is run by a Hillary Huckster who recently was caught manipulating a poll and then lied about it.
Realclearpolitics.com takes an average of these distorted polls to come up with their analysis of the current race. Their efforts are a great example of the phrase – ‘garbage in – garbage out’.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/201...polls-shows-trump-win-and-possible-landslide/
By selecting more Dems the polls are designed to provide a Dem result.
Our experts next analyzed the data and calculated results using the same data from the two surveys on a split of 40 Dems, 40 Reps and 20 Other. The results show that using either sets of data Trump comes out ahead with a larger margin of victory using the FOX data.
Clearly the polls using data that is heavily weighted towards Democrat voters is incorrectly skewed.
This year Republicans crushed their previous record in the primaries for number of votes by 150%. Their old record was 20 million and this year 31 million voted in the primaries.
The Democrats on the other hand had 7 million votes less than their record year in 2008 with 30 million this year compared to 37 million in 2008.
Also, the primaries were heavily contested on both sides resulting in factions from each party vowing not to vote for the party candidate. The impact of these two groups is difficult to judge. The percentage of these voters that change parties is probably limited. If anything, the Sanders people will probably be more likely to vote for Trump since he is an outsider and many of them will never vote for Crooked Hillary.
Finally, it is difficult to determine what the independent voters will do but many independent voters partook in the primaries to vote for Trump. Therefore it is more likely that Independent voters vote for Trump as well.
If more Democratic voters vote for Trump than Republicans vote for Hillary and more Independents vote for Trump than Hillary, both scenarios which are highly likely, then the results of the general election will likely be a Trump landslide.
Let’s face it NOBODY likes Hillary and NOBODY trusts Hillary.
Nobody trusted Hillary before WikiLeaks. Trump is filling arenas around the country but Hillary can barely fill half a high school gymnasium. Her VP candidate Tim Kaine can’t even get 50 people at an event.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/201...polls-shows-trump-win-and-possible-landslide/
This past week a number of polls show Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by various margins. One poll last week reported by NBC/WSJ showed Hillary ahead by 11. However, Truthfeed pointed out that NBC/WSJ didn’t mention that the poll was created by a Hillary Super PAC.
It’s also well known that the Monmouth University poll is run by a Hillary Huckster who recently was caught manipulating a poll and then lied about it.
Realclearpolitics.com takes an average of these distorted polls to come up with their analysis of the current race. Their efforts are a great example of the phrase – ‘garbage in – garbage out’.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/201...polls-shows-trump-win-and-possible-landslide/
By selecting more Dems the polls are designed to provide a Dem result.
Our experts next analyzed the data and calculated results using the same data from the two surveys on a split of 40 Dems, 40 Reps and 20 Other. The results show that using either sets of data Trump comes out ahead with a larger margin of victory using the FOX data.
Clearly the polls using data that is heavily weighted towards Democrat voters is incorrectly skewed.
This year Republicans crushed their previous record in the primaries for number of votes by 150%. Their old record was 20 million and this year 31 million voted in the primaries.
The Democrats on the other hand had 7 million votes less than their record year in 2008 with 30 million this year compared to 37 million in 2008.
Also, the primaries were heavily contested on both sides resulting in factions from each party vowing not to vote for the party candidate. The impact of these two groups is difficult to judge. The percentage of these voters that change parties is probably limited. If anything, the Sanders people will probably be more likely to vote for Trump since he is an outsider and many of them will never vote for Crooked Hillary.
Finally, it is difficult to determine what the independent voters will do but many independent voters partook in the primaries to vote for Trump. Therefore it is more likely that Independent voters vote for Trump as well.
If more Democratic voters vote for Trump than Republicans vote for Hillary and more Independents vote for Trump than Hillary, both scenarios which are highly likely, then the results of the general election will likely be a Trump landslide.
Let’s face it NOBODY likes Hillary and NOBODY trusts Hillary.
Nobody trusted Hillary before WikiLeaks. Trump is filling arenas around the country but Hillary can barely fill half a high school gymnasium. Her VP candidate Tim Kaine can’t even get 50 people at an event.
1.Polling is a lot better now than 1980
2.You are right,many don't like Hillary,but thankfully for her she has an opponent who is disliked more than her.
3.As I told my friends who thought Bernie would win because he got bigger crowds at his rallies than Hillary,its means nothing.Polls are a much better predictor than crowd size at rallies.Polls clearly showed Trump would the republican nomination.Polls clearly showed Hillary would the democrat nomination and I believe them when they show Hillary will win the presidency.
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A Reuters poll was fucked. I looked at the methodology and it totally skewed democrats way out of proportion, in the sample size.
That said, this election will be stolen/insured by DHS via Obama. DHS has electronic and legal oversight of this election as so it won't be stolen from "the russians". We've got Democratic operatives intimately connected to the White House - visited the WH hundreds of times - running sophisticated presidential election rigging on a national level, caught right on video tape. Admitting it. The electronic voting machines are supplied by a George Soros partner-owned Company. Multiple news reports on youtube demonstrating electronic voting machines easily hackable.
It's done. But mark my words. The New World Order is dead on arrival.
That said, this election will be stolen/insured by DHS via Obama. DHS has electronic and legal oversight of this election as so it won't be stolen from "the russians". We've got Democratic operatives intimately connected to the White House - visited the WH hundreds of times - running sophisticated presidential election rigging on a national level, caught right on video tape. Admitting it. The electronic voting machines are supplied by a George Soros partner-owned Company. Multiple news reports on youtube demonstrating electronic voting machines easily hackable.
It's done. But mark my words. The New World Order is dead on arrival.
Democrats have gotten at least 250 electoral votes in the last 6 presidential elections.More people voted for the democratic nominee for president than the republican nominee in 5 of the last 6 presidential elections but of course trump supporters have to believe its fraud if the democrat wins this year
