The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

I will note that in past major elections locally the Democrats in this region were very enthusiastic regarding Obama and had many yard signs. This time even my nearby neighbors who had Obama signs in their yards previously don't have Hillary signs.

I will agree that it appears that Hillary is up in the polls in our state, but most of our state-wide battles for governor, senator, etc. here are dead-even with no candidate leading the other by more than two points for several weeks and many polls showing lead changes. I think N.C. could go either way in all of these races as well as in the presidential race.


Obama was different and brought enthusiasm that most democratic politicians don't.I too think NC will be close,1 or 2 point victory imo.The fact that it has been close the last 3 elections after going to republicans from 1980-2004 signals a major shift towards democrats in NC imo.
 
Obama was different and brought enthusiasm that most democratic politicians don't.I too think NC will be close,1 or 2 point victory imo.The fact that it has been close the last 3 elections after going to republicans from 1980-2004 signals a major shift towards democrats in NC imo.

The demographics of our state lean more Democratic each year as people move in from out of state to the Raleigh and Charlotte areas.

I will note that in previous elections that Republican households were not very enthusiastic about McCain or Romney, but seem wildly enthusiastic about Trump. Likewise Democratic households are showing little enthusiasm about Hillary in the current election but were strongly enthusiastic about Obama in previous elections.
 
The demographics of our state lean more Democratic each year as people move in from out of state to the Raleigh and Charlotte areas.

I will note that in previous elections that Republican households were not very enthusiastic about McCain or Romney, but seem wildly enthusiastic about Trump. Likewise Democratic households are showing little enthusiasm about Hillary in the current election but were strongly enthusiastic about Obama in previous elections.


I agree democrats aren't enthusiastic about Hillary so you wont see many yard signs etc for her.I think democrats are enthusiastic about stopping Trump and will show up at the polls in droves to stop him.
 
I agree democrats aren't enthusiastic about Hillary so you wont see many yard signs etc for her.I think democrats are enthusiastic about stopping Trump and will show up at the polls in droves to stop him.

You may be right. We will see on November 8th.

I just hope the day comes soon so we can get the continuous attack ads off TV and go back to seeing commercials for normal consumer products.
 
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If you think that 33 percent more democrats are going to vote... that abc poll would be legit.
dems 36- reps 27- Inds 31

what a ridiculous poll.









NEW ABC POLL,HILLARY + 12 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clin...d-boosted-broad-disapproval/story?id=42993821


Clinton Vaults to a Double-Digit Lead, Boosted by Broad Disapproval of Trump (POLL)
Oct 23, 2016, 8:59 AM ET

ap_gty_debate_split_ps2_161019_12x5_1600.jpg


Hillary Clinton has vaulted to a double-digit advantage in the inaugural ABC News 2016 election tracking poll, boosted by broad disapproval of Donald Trump on two controversial issues: His treatment of women and his reluctance to endorse the election’s legitimacy.

Likely voters by a vast 69-24 percent disapprove of Trump’s response to questions about his treatment of women. After a series of allegations of past sexual misconduct, the poll finds that some women who’d initially given him the benefit of the doubt have since moved away.

See PDF with full results, charts and tables here.

Fifty-nine percent of likely voters, moreover, reject Trump’s suggestion that the election is rigged in Clinton’s favor, and more, 65 percent, disapprove of his refusal to say whether he’d accept a Clinton victory as legitimate. Most strongly disapprove, a relatively rare result.

All told, Clinton leads Trump by 12 percentage points among likely voters, 50 to 38 percent, in the national survey, her highest support and his lowest to date in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls. Gary Johnson has 5 percent support, Jill Stein 2 percent.

The results mark a dramatic shift from Clinton’s +4 points in the last ABC/Post poll Oct. 13. That survey was conducted after disclosure of an 11-year-old videotape in which Trump crudely described his sexual advances toward women, but before the events that have followed: A series of women saying he sexually assaulted them, which Trump has denied; his continued refusal to say whether he’d accept the election’s legitimacy; and the final debate, which likely voters by 52-29 percent say Clinton won.
 
this is the case in michigan as well. nothing for hillary lots of trump. according to relatives

an la radio station (am 640) had a debate watching party at a convention hall in orange county ca last week.

when they asked who was for hillary, then stein etc...
more for stein showed up than hillary. of course is was mostly trump.

I will note that in past major elections locally the Democrats in this region were very enthusiastic regarding Obama and had many yard signs. This time even my nearby neighbors who had Obama signs in their yards previously don't have Hillary signs.

I will agree that it appears that Hillary is up in the polls in our state, but most of our state-wide battles for governor, senator, etc. here are dead-even with no candidate leading the other by more than two points for several weeks and many polls showing lead changes. I think N.C. could go either way in all of these races as well as in the presidential race.
 
I note kellyanne conway was in the news on drudge today talking about the 2012 template vs what might show up on november 8th. I tell you, many on the left and right get their ideas here at times.
 
If you think that 33 percent more democrats are going to vote... that abc poll would be legit.
dems 36- reps 27- Inds 31

what a ridiculous poll.


ABC poll 10-13-2012

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ABC poll 11-4-2012



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Obama won by + 4
 
i note I just read the ibd poll..

its 28 dem 22 Rep 25 Ind

and trump leads by 2.

trump may be winning outside the margin of error if you use the 2012 template.
 
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