The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo
- Thread starter jem
- Start date
1 outliar poll this year and 1 last year gives you confidence in CO?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton-5751.html
honest polls can be wrong. Voter's may turn out in unusual patterns, there can be odd areas where 100 percent of the vote goes to Obama. Romney's ground game could have fallen apart.
The storm and hug could have made a difference.
How come you don't understand these things even though I explain them again and again.
By the way... counting polls that were before hillarys health episode is getting a little desperate don't you think?
its the most recent honest polls that may useful. and in those its either within margin for error or Trump is pulling ahead.
your colarado polls are all from last month except the one most recent which has trump in the lead. So lets us know when new ones come out. Maybe hillary will bounce back in a poll with a crap poll from nbc or ppp. I am sure quinnipiac can slant one for her too.
The storm and hug could have made a difference.
How come you don't understand these things even though I explain them again and again.
By the way... counting polls that were before hillarys health episode is getting a little desperate don't you think?
its the most recent honest polls that may useful. and in those its either within margin for error or Trump is pulling ahead.
your colarado polls are all from last month except the one most recent which has trump in the lead. So lets us know when new ones come out. Maybe hillary will bounce back in a poll with a crap poll from nbc or ppp. I am sure quinnipiac can slant one for her too.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-clintons-electoral-map-isnt-as-good-as-obamas/
in short with Trump clawing back most of Clintons lead... her electoral map is far weaker than Obamas.
She could lose the whole midwest...
in short with Trump clawing back most of Clintons lead... her electoral map is far weaker than Obamas.
She could lose the whole midwest...
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Trump leading the electoral college... Hillary was up big a few weeks ago.
There is hope for our children's future safety and freedom at the moment.
and don't forget Reuter's slants its national poll... 36 to 28 without leaners or 42 to 32 with leaners.
Hillary is most likely losing outside the margin for error right now.
There is hope for our children's future safety and freedom at the moment.
and don't forget Reuter's slants its national poll... 36 to 28 without leaners or 42 to 32 with leaners.
Hillary is most likely losing outside the margin for error right now.
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Trump leading the electoral college... Hillary was up big a few weeks ago.
There is hope for our children's future safety and freedom at the moment.
and don't forget Reuter's slants its national poll... 36 to 28 without leaners or 42 to 32 with leaners.
Hillary is most likely losing outside the margin for error right now.
1 poll? I like to look at multiple reputable sources.
Betting markets has it 323-215 Hillary
Nate Silver has it 287-249 Hillary
RCP has 200-164 Hillary or 293-245 with no toss up states
Princeton Election Consortium(called all 50 states in 2012) has it 308-230 Hillary
Cook political report has it 272-190 Hillary
oh - look the Princeton election consortium says something similar.
http://election.princeton.edu/
It looks like the Presidential state-poll snapshot is heading for a near-tie. This should become evident in the PEC analysis by the time of the first debate. I believe this will be a temporary situation. It will take at least until after the first debate on September 26th to find out.
National polls currently show Clinton ahead by only 1.0 ± 0.6 % (median ± estimated SEM, 7 pollsters with at least some post-Phlegmghazi respondents). However, our state poll-based analysis moves more slowly. I expect the Meta-Margin to keep on moving toward Trump for at least a week as state poll medians catch up. To get an idea of where the PEC analysis will head in the next few days, see electoral-vote.com, whose main map displays the most recent single poll for each state and therefore is noisier than my calculation – but more up-to-the-moment.
I estimate that if we had up-to-date data in all states, in an election held today the Presidential outcome would be extremely close, approximately like the map below.
http://election.princeton.edu/
It looks like the Presidential state-poll snapshot is heading for a near-tie. This should become evident in the PEC analysis by the time of the first debate. I believe this will be a temporary situation. It will take at least until after the first debate on September 26th to find out.
National polls currently show Clinton ahead by only 1.0 ± 0.6 % (median ± estimated SEM, 7 pollsters with at least some post-Phlegmghazi respondents). However, our state poll-based analysis moves more slowly. I expect the Meta-Margin to keep on moving toward Trump for at least a week as state poll medians catch up. To get an idea of where the PEC analysis will head in the next few days, see electoral-vote.com, whose main map displays the most recent single poll for each state and therefore is noisier than my calculation – but more up-to-the-moment.
I estimate that if we had up-to-date data in all states, in an election held today the Presidential outcome would be extremely close, approximately like the map below.