Hillary ahead in 7 of the last 9 polls
The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo
- Thread starter jem
- Start date
things changed in the far more realistic real clear politics 4 way polls which included the weekend - trump is in the margin for error And that is with some of the polls being highly slanted to D plus 8 to 10.
in the L.A Times poll Trump is up by 5.
Quinnipiac 9/8 - 9/13 960 LV 3.2 41 39 13 4 Clinton +2
Economist/YouGov 9/10 - 9/13 926 RV 4.0 42 40 5 3 Clinton +2
Reuters/Ipsos 9/8 - 9/12 1127 LV 3.3 39 39 8 2 Tie
La Times Trump plus 5.
therefore on average trump is up
in the L.A Times poll Trump is up by 5.
Quinnipiac 9/8 - 9/13 960 LV 3.2 41 39 13 4 Clinton +2
Economist/YouGov 9/10 - 9/13 926 RV 4.0 42 40 5 3 Clinton +2
Reuters/Ipsos 9/8 - 9/12 1127 LV 3.3 39 39 8 2 Tie
La Times Trump plus 5.
therefore on average trump is up
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Ok.For the second time the jem algo is on the record having Trump up while most the polls you call garbage have Hillary up.Please post the jem algo results at least once a week so in the end we can compare the jem algo results to the results of polls you call garbage.
The TS algo has Hillary up +4.I will release The TS algo results every Monday and look forward to comparing it to the jem algo and other poll results in the end.
I don't think you get the point. To be on record the algo needs all the polls to reveal their templates and the herding has to happen.
What I showed it is that -2 plus -2 plus O Plus 5 is a positive number. Therefore Trump was up in polls that were finished after her weekend at Chelsea event. .
What I showed it is that -2 plus -2 plus O Plus 5 is a positive number. Therefore Trump was up in polls that were finished after her weekend at Chelsea event. .
I can see why you qualified to vote Democrat.
-2 + -2 + 0+ 5 / 4 = .25 for Trump
The average of the polls which finished after Hillary had her event had trump in the lead. (Not the algo.)
-2 + -2 + 0+ 5 / 4 = .25 for Trump
The average of the polls which finished after Hillary had her event had trump in the lead. (Not the algo.)
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Hillary is ahead in 5 of the 7 polls that include weekend at Chelsea's,Trump 2 of 7.
5>2
I can see why you are qualified to vote Republican.
I also see you say anything possible to try to avoid the jem algo going on the record and saying Trump is ahead.
The polls give you enough information for you to say they are biased,cowards,wrong etc but when its time for the jem algo to go on the record and say who's ahead you say the polls don't have enough information
.At least those polls you call cowardly and garbage aren't afraid to go on the record and say who's ahead and have their record judged at the end of the election.1. the poll count we were discussing was yesterdays...
if you are going to act like a elementary school child I will eventually just not pay attention to your posts.
if you want to make a new point fine... but don't imply that the new tally makes my previous argument incorrect. that was a really spineless tactic.
2. the poll records have not been judged by nate silver and other poll watching groups until after the herding... how come you keep ignoring that point.
3. and you so far have not answered the question.
do you think a poll that is plus 8 or plus 10 now and then switches to plus 3 or 4 just before the election is accurate?
if you are going to act like a elementary school child I will eventually just not pay attention to your posts.
if you want to make a new point fine... but don't imply that the new tally makes my previous argument incorrect. that was a really spineless tactic.
2. the poll records have not been judged by nate silver and other poll watching groups until after the herding... how come you keep ignoring that point.
3. and you so far have not answered the question.
do you think a poll that is plus 8 or plus 10 now and then switches to plus 3 or 4 just before the election is accurate?
So you only want to use 4 polls that gives Trump a .25 lead and not all of the polls since pneumonia gate as well as ignoring all of the polls before that.I hope the jem algo doesn't operate that way.
You Sir are the only one acting like a elementary school child with the "I can see why you qualified to vote Democrat" comment as well as criticizing and name calling polling firms that you disagree with while not putting forth your own results.
If I have not made it clear by now I will do so now,I do not factor herding into my analysis.I do not have an opinion on herding because I don't consider it.I do not factor a polling firms methodology or how they come to their results.I only factor how accurate their results were in the past. I don't care how the jem algo comes to its conclusions,just say who the jem algo has ahead and by how many points.
Polls that were plus 8 or plus 10 now and then switches to plus 3 or 4 just before the election can be accurate as far as who wins,they just might underestimate the margin of victory like they did with Obama.
Hey Tony. You still smoking that crack?
Clinton leads Trump by 1.5% in the RCP average loloolo
She just blew a 12 point lead.
AND Trump is nearly tied in Wisconsin, Virginia and Michigan.
Ohio and Floridia squarely for Trump.
Donald has trashed Hillary, as of late. Old wheezbag likely won't make it to Nov.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html