The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

Hey, tony, why don't you go ahead and address how the '12 polls had obama with a big lead over romney all the way up till the end, and then the polls 'tightened up'.

If it's not because they wanted to actually try and be more accurate at the end, then why was it?
 
fhl said:
I can't get the picture to show up in an ET post , but go to this page,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

and look at the chart showing the realclearpolitics avgs all the way up to the end. It's in chart form and it shows up in the space right below the polling data.

Now tell me how accurate those rcp avg's were in the 12 cycle. Go ahead and tell me. They consistently showed a big spread between Obama and Romney right up until the last couple of weeks. Always with the big spread favoring Obama.

"the polls are tightening up"
That's a phrase we're going to be hearing again in the last couple of weeks of this campaign. Because they can no longer bias their polls for Hillary. They have to try to be more accurate at the end.
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1.Notice Obama is ahead in the majority of polls,like Hillary is now.Thats whats most important.

2.The spread wasn't as accurate at the end,it underestimated Obama by 3 points.The spread prior to the last month was closer to his winning margin.
 
Tony Stark said:
1.Notice Obama is ahead in the majority of polls,like Hillary is now.Thats whats most important.

2.The spread wasn't as accurate at the end,it underestimated Obama by 3 points.The spread prior to the last month was closer to his winning margin.
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Yes, but they didn't even think they were accurate themselves when they published them. If they did, they wouldn't have changed their polling methods at the end. And they don't believe the polls they're putting out now are accurate either. They're going to change them at the end to to attempt to be more accurate. But you believe the ones they put out now. Even though the people putting them together don't even believe their own polls.
 
fhl said:
The polls are about percentages, not winners. Skewing your polls in favor of or against the winning candidate is no sin in your book.
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Polls are about who's ahead in the majority of them.Right now Hillary is ahead in a majority of polls like Obama was in 08 and 12 and like Hillary and Trump were in the 2016 primaries.
 
fhl said:
Silver says that if the pollster have integrity, they're going to have some outliers because polling is hard. If they have no integrity, they put their 'thumbs on the scale' and herd at the end. That's what Silver says Public Policy Polling is the most guilty at doing.
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Since you like Silver so much.You're welcome.



24wgc4x.jpg
 
Tony, was Trump ahead in the majority of polls a month ago when Silver said Trump had the odds of winning on his side?
 
PPP (D) 7/29 - 7/30 1276 LV 2.7 46 41 6 2 Clinton +5
NBC News/SM 7/25 - 7/31 12742 RV 1.2 42 38 9 4 Clinton +4
Reuters/Ipsos 7/25 - 7/29 1433 LV 2.9 37 37 5 1 Tie
CNN/ORC 7/22 - 7/24 882 RV 3.5 39 44 9 3 Trump +5
Economist/YouGov 7/23 - 7/24 1057 RV 4.5 40 38 5 3 Clinton +2
NBC News/SM 7/18 - 7/24 12931 RV 1.2 39 41 10 5 Trump +2
Reuters/Ipsos 7/16 - 7/20 1232 RV 3.2 39 35 7 3 Clinton +4
Economist/YouGov 7/15 - 7/17 925 RV 4.5 40 37 5 4 Clinton +3
Monmouth 7/14 - 7/16 688 LV 3.7 45 43 5 1 Clinton +2
NBC News/SM 7/11 - 7/17 9436 RV 1.4 39 40 10 5 Trump +1
CNN/ORC 7/13 - 7/16 872 RV 3.5 42 37 13 5 Clinton +5

There's the last half of July polls when Silver said Trump would win. Sure looks like the majority were favoring Clinton to me.
 
fhl said:
A month ago Silver gave Trump the odds on chance of winning.
NATE SILVER: Trump would most likely win if election were held today ...
www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-donald-trump-polls-2016-7Business Insider
Jul 25, 2016


You should thank me.
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Height of his post convention bump.It still had Hillary ahead in 2 of his 3 models.


"However, in Silver's polls-only forecast and in his polls-plus forecast, Clinton was still favored to come out on top. In the polls-only model, Clinton had a 53.7% chance of winning, while in the polls-plus model, Silver gave Clinton a 58.2% chance of winning in November. But those numbers are a drastic drop-off from where they recently were — hovering around 80%."
 
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