The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

[fhl]

No,these were polls released months prior to him winning.Look at the dates.

No, when only Trump, Cruz and Kasich were left, IT WAS OVER. These polls are meaningless. It was over then. When Bush and Rubio were contenders, all we heard was that they were favored. Until they lost the Actual Vote.

 

[Tony Stark]

1.

2&3. You're right about that. All polls aren't equal. And you keep throwing around the ones that are obviously skewed to make the old sick girl look good.

These are the same polls that showed Obama beating McCain,Obama beating Romney,Trump winning the republican nomination and Hillary winning the democratic nomination.

 

[Tony Stark]

No, when only Trump, Cruz and Kasich were left, IT WAS OVER. These polls are meaningless. It was over then. When Bush and Rubio were contenders, all we heard was that they were favored. Until they lost the Actual Vote.

Please post some of these polls showing Bush and Rubio were ahead in the polls.




Dec 2015
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-do...z-second-hillary-clinton-over-bernie-sanders/

Poll: Donald Trump back on top, with Ted Cruz climbing into second

CBS News December 10, 2015, 7:00 AM


The Republican Race
Thirty-five percent of Republican primary voters support Trump, up 13 points since October, and his highest level of support in CBS News polling. Ted Cruz (16 percent) has moved into second place, while Ben Carson, who led the October poll, has dropped to third.






Jan 2016

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...z-top-gop-race-few-have-birther-concerns.html


Fox News Poll
Fox News Poll: Trump, Cruz top GOP race, few have 'birther' concerns

By Dana Blanton

Published January 22, 2016
FoxNews.com
Facebook Twitter livefyre Email Print


The Republican presidential nomination race has settled into two distinct tiers.

Four candidates -- Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Ben Carson -- command nearly three-quarters of the party’s support. The rest are just trying to break through.

Here’s how the race stands according to the latest Fox News national poll on the 2016 election:


Trump receives 34 percent among Republican primary voters, Cruz gets 20 percent, Rubio 11 percent, and Carson 8 percent.

Two weeks ago, it was Trump 35 percent, Cruz 20 percent, Rubio 13 percent, and Carson 10 percent.






Feb 16



http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-poll-gop-race-trump-remains-on-top-hell-get-things-done/



CBS News poll: Trump maintains commanding lead over GOP field

Last Updated Feb 18, 2016 12:48 PM EST

By Anthony Salvanto, Fred Backus, Jennifer De Pinto, Sarah Dutton

Donald Trump (35 percent) continues to hold a commanding lead over the rest of the field, with a 17 point lead over his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz (18 percent). John Kasich (11 percent) has now risen to a virtual third-place tie with Marco Rubio (12 percent). Trump leads among nearly every demographic group.

More than half of Republican voters say they may still change their minds about who to support, but two thirds of Trump voters say their minds are made up.

Seven in 10 Republican primary voters want a candidate who will shake up the system, and their top choice for the nomination is Donald Trump. Just one in four want someone who will work within the system.




March 2016


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...016/trump_still_holds_15_point_lead_over_cruz

Trump Still Holds 15-Point Lead Over Cruz


Friday, March 18, 2016

Support for all three of the remaining Republican candidates has grown with the narrowing of the field, but Donald Trump still holds a double-digit lead over both his rivals for the GOP presidential nomination.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters finds Trump with 43% support to Senator Ted Cruz’s 28% and Ohio Governor John Kasich’s 21%. Just five percent (5%) of GOP voters like some other candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

 

[fhl]

These are the same polls that showed Obama beating McCain,Obama beating Romney,Trump winning the republican nomination and Hillary winning the democratic nomination.

I can't get the picture to show up in an ET post , but go to this page,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

and look at the chart showing the realclearpolitics avgs all the way up to the end. It's in chart form and it shows up in the space right below the polling data.

Now tell me how accurate those rcp avg's were in the 12 cycle. Go ahead and tell me. They consistently showed a big spread between Obama and Romney right up until the last couple of weeks. Always with the big spread favoring Obama.

"the polls are tightening up"
That's a phrase we're going to be hearing again in the last couple of weeks of this campaign. Because they can no longer bias their polls for Hillary. They have to try to be more accurate at the end.

 

[fhl]

Please post some of these polls showing Bush and Rubio were ahead in the polls.


Jan 2016

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...z-top-gop-race-few-have-birther-concerns.html


Fox News Poll
Fox News Poll: Trump, Cruz top GOP race, few have 'birther' concerns

By Dana Blanton

Published January 22, 2016
FoxNews.com
Facebook Twitter livefyre Email Print


The Republican presidential nomination race has settled into two distinct tiers.

Four candidates -- Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Ben Carson -- command nearly three-quarters of the party’s support. The rest are just trying to break through.

Here’s how the race stands according to the latest Fox News national poll on the 2016 election:


Trump receives 34 percent among Republican primary voters, Cruz gets 20 percent, Rubio 11 percent, and Carson 8 percent.

Two weeks ago, it was Trump 35 percent, Cruz 20 percent, Rubio 13 percent, and Carson 10 percent.






Feb 16



http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-poll-gop-race-trump-remains-on-top-hell-get-things-done/



CBS News poll: Trump maintains commanding lead over GOP field

Last Updated Feb 18, 2016 12:48 PM EST

By Anthony Salvanto, Fred Backus, Jennifer De Pinto, Sarah Dutton

Donald Trump (35 percent) continues to hold a commanding lead over the rest of the field, with a 17 point lead over his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz (18 percent). John Kasich (11 percent) has now risen to a virtual third-place tie with Marco Rubio (12 percent). Trump leads among nearly every demographic group.

More than half of Republican voters say they may still change their minds about who to support, but two thirds of Trump voters say their minds are made up.

Seven in 10 Republican primary voters want a candidate who will shake up the system, and their top choice for the nomination is Donald Trump. Just one in four want someone who will work within the system.




March 2016


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...016/trump_still_holds_15_point_lead_over_cruz

Trump Still Holds 15-Point Lead Over Cruz


Friday, March 18, 2016

Support for all three of the remaining Republican candidates has grown with the narrowing of the field, but Donald Trump still holds a double-digit lead over both his rivals for the GOP presidential nomination.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters finds Trump with 43% support to Senator Ted Cruz’s 28% and Ohio Governor John Kasich’s 21%. Just five percent (5%) of GOP voters like some other candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

I didn't say they had Bush and Rubio ahead in the polls. I said the 'odds' favored Bush and Rubio all the way up till they were voted out on their asses. And the odds were based on the polls. The skewed polls.

 

[fhl]

March 2016


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...016/trump_still_holds_15_point_lead_over_cruz

Trump Still Holds 15-Point Lead Over Cruz


Friday, March 18, 2016

Support for all three of the remaining Republican candidates has grown with the narrowing of the field, but Donald Trump still holds a double-digit lead over both his rivals for the GOP presidential nomination.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters finds Trump with 43% support to Senator Ted Cruz’s 28% and Ohio Governor John Kasich’s 21%. Just five percent (5%) of GOP voters like some other candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Now that's funny. You use a Rasmussen poll to show that the polling was accurate in the primary. Of course your side dismisses Rasmussen as one of the most inaccurate pollsters whenever we bring them up now. LOL

 

[Tony Stark]

I didn't say they had Bush and Rubio ahead in the polls. I said the 'odds' favored Bush and Rubio all the way up till they were voted out on their asses. And the odds were based on the polls. The skewed polls.

The polls were right.Trump announced in June 2015 and from July 2015 to the end he was ahead in the large majority of polls.

Below are June-Oct 2015 polls

 

[fhl]

Silver says that if the pollster have integrity, they're going to have some outliers because polling is hard. If they have no integrity, they put their 'thumbs on the scale' and herd at the end. That's what Silver says Public Policy Polling is the most guilty at doing.

 

[Tony Stark]

Now that's funny. You use a Rasmussen poll to show that the polling was accurate in the primary. Of course your side dismisses Rasmussen as one of the most inaccurate pollsters whenever we bring them up now. LOL

I showed a variety of polls.Since your side loves Rasmussen I included one but Trump was ahead in nearly every poll.

 

[fhl]

The polls were right.Trump announced in June 2015 and from July 2015 to the end he was ahead in the large majority of polls.

Below are June-Oct 2015 polls

The polls are about percentages, not winners. Skewing your polls in favor of or against the winning candidate is no sin in your book.