You're kidding, right?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/
Meanwhile, what happens when Clinton wins in November? What will be the spin then?
The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo
- Thread starter jem
- Start date
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/
Meanwhile, what happens when Clinton wins in November? What will be the spin then?
Fox News just says Manafort resigns from Trump campaign . . .
nothing about him being Putin's mole and passing on classified information.
Paul Manafort resigns from Trump campaign
This morning Paul Manafort offered, and I accepted, his resignation from the campaign,” Trump said in a written statement to FoxNews.com. “I am very appreciative for his great work in helping to get us where we are today, and in particular his work guiding us through the delegate and convention process. Paul is a true professional and I wish him the greatest success.”
Those close to Trump praised Manafort, but did not dismiss a possible connection between his ouster and the Ukrainian controversy.
"I think my father didn’t want to be, you know, distracted by whatever things Paul was dealing with," Eric Trump, told Fox News' Maria Bartiromo.
nothing about him being Putin's mole and passing on classified information.
Paul Manafort resigns from Trump campaign
This morning Paul Manafort offered, and I accepted, his resignation from the campaign,” Trump said in a written statement to FoxNews.com. “I am very appreciative for his great work in helping to get us where we are today, and in particular his work guiding us through the delegate and convention process. Paul is a true professional and I wish him the greatest success.”
Those close to Trump praised Manafort, but did not dismiss a possible connection between his ouster and the Ukrainian controversy.
"I think my father didn’t want to be, you know, distracted by whatever things Paul was dealing with," Eric Trump, told Fox News' Maria Bartiromo.
Trump picks all the right people because he has a good brain.
For... polling geeks.
So today we have a USC / LA times poll with inside the margin of error but with Trump every so slightly leading.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/ (changes everyday)
and a Monmouth Poll with hillary up by 7.
So I dug deeper.
their template... was 28 R 32 D 40 I.
On first blush no so bad.
Only 4 more dems than Rs in their template.
so what gives...
are they overwieghting the 18 to 34 year old group...
in their raw sample they had
102 18-34,
232 35-54,
55 plus had 450 people.
yet in their template they went to...
24% 18-34
26% 35-49
28% 50 -64
22% 65plus
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does anyone know what percent of the voters in the last election were 18-34? not percentage of them voting... but the percent of the overall vote?
24% seems like a pretty good number... is it off by a lot?
So today we have a USC / LA times poll with inside the margin of error but with Trump every so slightly leading.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/ (changes everyday)
and a Monmouth Poll with hillary up by 7.
So I dug deeper.
their template... was 28 R 32 D 40 I.
On first blush no so bad.
Only 4 more dems than Rs in their template.
so what gives...
are they overwieghting the 18 to 34 year old group...
in their raw sample they had
102 18-34,
232 35-54,
55 plus had 450 people.
yet in their template they went to...
24% 18-34
26% 35-49
28% 50 -64
22% 65plus
--
does anyone know what percent of the voters in the last election were 18-34? not percentage of them voting... but the percent of the overall vote?
24% seems like a pretty good number... is it off by a lot?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
Hilary winning 29 out of the last 30 RCP polls.
At the end of August 2012 Obama was winning 22 out of the last 30 RCP polls,and we know how that turned out.
At the end of August 2008 Obama was winning 23 out of the last 30 RCP polls,and we know how that turned out.
At the end of August 2012 Obama was around 60% in the betting markets,Hilary is at 75 %
Nate Silver also has Hilary doing better now than Obama was in 2012 as well. After Hilary beats Trump worse than Obama beat Romney and McCain I would suggest some changes to the Jem Algo.
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I wonder how come they weren't able to rig that last one.
Trump is up by 3 today in the LA times poll.
Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by roughly three points in the latest USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Daybreak poll.
Trump earns 45. 1 percent support in the poll, while Clinton is at 42.3 percent.
According to the poll two weeks ago, Trump was behind Clinton by three points, 45.5 percent to 42.1 percent.
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/30/la-times-poll-trump-leads-clinton-three/
Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by roughly three points in the latest USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Daybreak poll.
Trump earns 45. 1 percent support in the poll, while Clinton is at 42.3 percent.
According to the poll two weeks ago, Trump was behind Clinton by three points, 45.5 percent to 42.1 percent.
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/30/la-times-poll-trump-leads-clinton-three/
1. the algo does not have Trump in the lead.
The algo has not been used much because many of the previous polls had not been making their R vs D vs I ratios easily found. Hence the title of the thread.
However, lately the last few times I clicked on the polls I have found the breakdown and I would say they are slightly democrat rich. Based on the Obama election they should have about 3 more Ds than Rs. The polls I clicked on seem to have a about 5 more Ds than Rs. Therefore the algo would have Clinton with a slight lead right at the margin for error.
by the way... the algo was proven right in the last election as the polls changed their templates to conform with previous elections. a few weeks before the election there was a big bump to Romney because they decreased the democrats in the samples... as predicted.
Finally you don't really think that Hillary is up 7 to 10 points do you?
It will all depend on the the Independents in the end. I guess that if trump wins the Independents by 4 points... he wins...
He was leading by 3 before his blunders... recently Hillary was seen to be about even with the independents. But that seems like a very fluid situation.
You also have to consider that pollsters have said there is a significant stealth trump vote. People who will vote for him but will not say so on the phone.
imo... this is a close race right now.
The algo has not been used much because many of the previous polls had not been making their R vs D vs I ratios easily found. Hence the title of the thread.
However, lately the last few times I clicked on the polls I have found the breakdown and I would say they are slightly democrat rich. Based on the Obama election they should have about 3 more Ds than Rs. The polls I clicked on seem to have a about 5 more Ds than Rs. Therefore the algo would have Clinton with a slight lead right at the margin for error.
by the way... the algo was proven right in the last election as the polls changed their templates to conform with previous elections. a few weeks before the election there was a big bump to Romney because they decreased the democrats in the samples... as predicted.
Finally you don't really think that Hillary is up 7 to 10 points do you?
It will all depend on the the Independents in the end. I guess that if trump wins the Independents by 4 points... he wins...
He was leading by 3 before his blunders... recently Hillary was seen to be about even with the independents. But that seems like a very fluid situation.
You also have to consider that pollsters have said there is a significant stealth trump vote. People who will vote for him but will not say so on the phone.
imo... this is a close race right now.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
Hilary winning 29 out of the last 30 RCP polls.
At the end of August 2012 Obama was winning 22 out of the last 30 RCP polls,and we know how that turned out.
At the end of August 2008 Obama was winning 23 out of the last 30 RCP polls,and we know how that turned out.
At the end of August 2012 Obama was around 60% in the betting markets,Hilary is at 75 %
Nate Silver also has Hilary doing better now than Obama was in 2012 as well. After Hilary beats Trump worse than Obama beat Romney and McCain I would suggest some changes to the Jem Algo.
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Trump lost this election months ago. You and a few others are in for a surprise on election night. Then you'll spend 4 years complaining about Clinton no matter what occurs. When Obama got elected, most of his early projects were blocked by Republicans and very little could get done. Maybe some of you should spend less time complaining about weak policy based on bipartisan feelings and look at why watered down projects like Obamacare came into being.
Obamacare was passed without a single Republican vote. That it was not single payer is entirely because Obama Pelosi and Reid and the democrat you apparently love sold out to the insurance company.
Your team controlled both houses and had Obama. It could have done anything it wanted. It chose to screw the voters in favor of the banks and the establishment. it had nothing to do with the establishment Rs.
When the Rs got in control they sold out their based and teamed up Obama on many issues.
Your view of history is clouded by your partisanship.
I dislike both parties as they both work for the same cronies.
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Trump may have blown it... but hillary is so weak he could come back.
Your team controlled both houses and had Obama. It could have done anything it wanted. It chose to screw the voters in favor of the banks and the establishment. it had nothing to do with the establishment Rs.
When the Rs got in control they sold out their based and teamed up Obama on many issues.
Your view of history is clouded by your partisanship.
I dislike both parties as they both work for the same cronies.
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Trump may have blown it... but hillary is so weak he could come back.