The mom contrarian indicator
- Thread starter nillionaire
- Start date
it is scary how many are out there. Essentially majority of retail public are sure that market now only go up. Granted I have a very small sample but still.
people talk about TESLA at 600 as fantastic
Bargain. TESLA is actually at 3,000 that was before split price. And at 600 just about worth as much as most car companies in the world combined. They rapidly loosing market share in Europe and would not make a penny without carbon credit.
public will be burned in a huge way unfortunately.
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People believe in "black swans" like the Covid-related sell-off of March 2020 because they don't believe that there are clues to potential market direction and risks. I'm not even sure 9/11 was a black swan event because if you were reading the market correctly, the trend / momentum was accelerating to the downside as of 9/10. The reality is that you see (or don't see) what you believe.
I never hear the term "Black Swan" from winning traders. It just feels like an excuse for being uninformed, and unmotivated to learn how shit really works.
FarmerJohn keeps saying that no indicator could predict Covid. I agree with that statement BUT he's making the assumption that no indicator could have predicted the Covid sell-off. That is not true. We knew about Covid at least by January 2020. I know because I went to the Bahamas over the MLK holiday weekend and at least was aware of Covid, although we weren't aware of it being an issue in the US. But you could have researched the issue and made some assumptions that it could come our way. Further, the S&P 500 made a new high around the third week of February 2020! There were technical weaknesses that you could have seen either at the time it made a new high or shortly thereafter. Just because FarmerJohn can't make sense out of the market doesn't mean no one can.
Boom! Uninformed, unmotivated or so biased in their thinking that because they can't figure it out, there can't be a way.
I was traveling in Europe when Covid went from a "China problem" to a problem that was obviously going to affect the entire globe. That is the point where nearly every financial instrument went wildly in one direction or the other. When they introduced lockdowns. Why is this obvious fact so hard to get through here?
Don't you remember when people in Milan were dying because they didn't have enough ventilators? Then it spread to NYC and other places. That's when crazy sh1t started happening like oil trading negative because no storage space. Short memories here?