The mom contrarian indicator

[farmerjohn1324]

from last year lows

From a once-per-century "black swan event," that no one could have predicted and, at it's core, had nothing to do with economics.

Stock market dips like that happen maybe once every decade... But they usually have an economic cause. This did not.

 

[RedDuke]

From a once-per-century "black swan event," that no one could have predicted and, at it's core, had nothing to do with economics.

Stock market dips like that happen maybe once every decade... But they usually have an economic cause. This did not.

My point that to use a word bottom after 2-3% move down, is kinda funny .

 

[farmerjohn1324]

My point that to use a word bottom after 2-3% move down, is kinda funny .

Agreed. Who knows what the future will hold.

 

[formikatrading]

It wasn't a black swan. Some folks were warning about it in January 2020 and technically there were a number of warning signs that showed up in February 2020 that something wasn't right with the market.

From a once-per-century "black swan event," that no one could have predicted and, at it's core, had nothing to do with economics.

Stock market dips like that happen maybe once every decade... But they usually have an economic cause. This did not.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

It wasn't a black swan. Some folks were warning about it in January 2020 and technically there were a number of warning signs that showed up in February 2020 that something wasn't right with the market.

Yea... A super contagious deadly virus spreading around the globe was "wrong with the market."

 

[formikatrading]

The market was showing signs of technical weakness despite the S&P 500 making a new high in late Feb (the virus was known then and people like Raoul Pal had warned in February that most folks were underestimating the potential impact) before the market actually turned down. The market just doesn't tank out of nowhere. The signs are always there. Most people just don't know where to look or choose to ignore them.

Yea... A super contagious deadly virus spreading around the globe was "wrong with the market."

 

[narafa]

you idiots will use any random noise as input

These are not random signals or noise, these are the best contrarian signals you might ever get. Back in 2011, I nailed the $1950 top in gold to the day when I entered the office on that day and everyone in the office was talking about buying gold. They never brought it up before, it was like, ok, so today is the top then.

The problem with those is that you get them randomly, i.e. you might be lucky to get that sentiment on that day. What if I didn't go to the office on that day? What if it was a weekend? I would have missed it.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

The market was showing signs of technical weakness despite the S&P 500 making a new high in late Feb (the virus was known then and people like Raoul Pal had warned in February that most folks were underestimating the potential impact) before the market actually turned down. The market just doesn't tank out of nowhere. The signs are always there. Most people just don't know where to look or choose to ignore them.

Really? And what were those signs of technical weakness that had nothing to do with Covid?

 

[Saltynuts]

From a once-per-century "black swan event," that no one could have predicted and, at it's core, had nothing to do with economics.

Stock market dips like that happen maybe once every decade... But they usually have an economic cause. This did not.

When you say "had nothing to do with economics", gotta disagree there farmerjohn, it had a TON to do with economics. Everyone was predicting horrible, horrible things, unemployment at 30% to 50%, massive depression, etc. etc. Turned out the central banks went bonkers and changed all that, but there was LEGIT fear in the air....

 

[Saltynuts]

Yea... A super contagious deadly virus spreading around the globe was "wrong with the market."

Gotta agree with farmerjohn on this one, pretty much a black swan. VIX hit like 80. Markets were CRUMBLING. Happens very rarely. Sure, the pain was short lived, because central banks stepped in, but it was MASSIVE pain seen very rarely.