The mom contrarian indicator

[farmerjohn1324]

I never hear the term "Black Swan" from winning traders. It just feels like an excuse for being uninformed, and unmotivated to learn how shit really works.

I learned the term from this forum.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

People believe in "black swans" like the Covid-related sell-off of March 2020 because they don't believe that there are clues to potential market direction and risks. I'm not even sure 9/11 was a black swan event because if you were reading the market correctly, the trend / momentum was accelerating to the downside as of 9/10. The reality is that you see (or don't see) what you believe.

9/11 didn't affect the economy as drastically as Covid did. Not even close.

 

[formikatrading]

"Be curious, not judgmental" - Walt Whitman

9/11 didn't affect the economy as drastically as Covid did. Not even close.

 

[Mercor]

I never hear the term "Black Swan" from winning traders. It just feels like an excuse for being uninformed, and unmotivated to learn how shit really works.

A 'Black Swan' fund posted a massive 4,000% return after the coronavirus blew up markets
https://markets.businessinsider.com...-return-hedging-coronavirus-2020-4-1029076165

 

[Space Alchemist]

I smile when I read such threads. What bottom??? market is what like 2 percent down from ALTH? It rallied 100 percent over course of last year from last year lows

Many active traders in smaller than NASDAQ 100 stocks are down 10%-20% in the past few days. There seems to be a flight to perceived quality/stability/safety. The markets are not monolithic.

 

[Nine_Ender]

It wasn't a black swan. Some folks were warning about it in January 2020 and technically there were a number of warning signs that showed up in February 2020 that something wasn't right with the market.

This is just wrong. What I see is permabears on here saying that markets are "overvalued" or in a "bubble" pretty much all the time. They were doing so throughout 2019. There was nothing super expensive about US indexes January 2020 we were higher end normal on market P/E. And then Covid hit and some people pretended markets were going to drop anyways. BS. I called this out in March 2020 shortly before the bottom. I forecast a stock market recovery not quite as dramatic as what occurred but far more then most on here would believe in at the time.

Claiming Covid wasn't a Black Swan is irrational.

 

[themickey]

What I see is permabears on here saying that markets are "overvalued" or in a "bubble" pretty much all the time.....

The way I see it, we are getting situations where the mkt craters (pullbacks which at the time appear serious) but they are all turning out to be false signals, time and again.
One day another will pop up and it will be the real thing.
Determining which one is genuinely serious is difficult.
Therin lays the danger as it creates complacency with repeated false signals.

 

[tayte]

A 'Black Swan' fund posted a massive 4,000% return after the coronavirus blew up markets
https://markets.businessinsider.com...-return-hedging-coronavirus-2020-4-1029076165

Note it's the journalist, i.e. probably not a high-alpha trader, who used the term "Black Swan".

The irony here kind of lies in the fact that they were betting on a fat tail event because they EXPECTED it. Am I right? haha. OK all jokes aside, Spitznagel is an awesome trader, if only for the fact that he realized options had been pushed way too cheap due to the massive "premium selling" by newbie quants who thought it was free money.

 

[Same Lazy Element]

I never hear the term "Black Swan" from winning traders. It just feels like an excuse for being uninformed, and unmotivated to learn how shit really works.

Why is that concept so hard to accept? There are known unknowns and there are unknown unknowns. In case of COVID, it was an unexpected event that had nothing to do with market fundamentals or the economy - the very definition of the black swan. Same goes for Fukushima, 9/11 and many more things.

People believe in "black swans" like the Covid-related sell-off of March 2020 because they don't believe that there are clues to potential market direction and risks. I'm not even sure 9/11 was a black swan event because if you were reading the market correctly, the trend / momentum was accelerating to the downside as of 9/10. The reality is that you see (or don't see) what you believe.

Yeah, my hindsight book is up a million percent too

 

[tayte]

Why is that concept so hard to accept? There are known unknowns and there are unknown unknowns. In case of COVID, it was an unexpected event that had nothing to do with market fundamentals or the economy - the very definition of the black swan. Same goes for Fukushima, 9/11 and many more things.

I appreciate your passion and conviction for your personal interpretation of mentioned events. Let's just agree to disagree?

It doesn't benefit me to explain my perspective, train of thought since it could make you guys better traders, i.e. more competition for my trades.