the londonkid report

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If you are unsure about who the participants are in a market I recommend this book.

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Just read a draft copy of the book (on the web) u recommended. By dealers, you just mean traders. TBH, you cannot know what they are holding. I don't think it even matters.

the internet is good like that for trading books not that I have ever downloaded books from the internet. ;)

For sure you can never know for certain what any group of traders are holding or how they are likely to react but I believe it is possible to have a very good idea as to what they likely hold. The way I trade is all about what I believe others to be holding. So for me it is all about how I believe the people that move price are positioned and what they will attempt to do in order to bank. As you know there are many ways to skin a cat, all that matters is if your method works for you and you make green. GL vis.
 
Confidence is not an edge.
Totally right.
During my career, I saw many confident kamikazes, most are dead.
But if you got a real edge, you are confident for good reasons.
Btw, probabilities are low that we see SP @ 1955 for the coming days.
We are in a BEAR market, not a bull market, and bear market rallies are usually weak.
Classic dead cat bounce = new lows coming, not new highs.

CM
 
Totally right.
During my career, I saw many confident kamikazes, most are dead.
But if you get a real edge, you are confident for good reasons.
Btw, probabilities are low that we see SP @ 1955 for the coming days.
We are in a BEAR market, not a bull market, and bear market rally are usually weak.
Classic dead cat bounce = new lows coming, not new highs lol.

CM

From what I can see the daily swing isn't over yet. Selling rallies is the way, question is this the time to go short? IMHO not yet.

Also, officially this isn't a bear market yet, none of the US main indexes are down 20% from the highs. Until this happens, significant rallies are likely. #realitycheck
 
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From what I can see the daily swing isn't over yet. Selling rallies is the way, question is this the time to go short? IMHO not yet.
Look at a classic bollinger graph of E50. (I got other graphs that tell the same story).
Every time we go the median => down.
History could repeat again this time if we don't go (fast) above 2900.
IMO Game is over in Euro equities, and in the US too. Forget SP 1955.

CM

boll.gif
 
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