the londonkid report
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Point taken, thanks. At the moment there is a double bottom in play in US indexes. Not just within 2016, but a higher low in DJIA Aug - Feb. Whether it will have enough interest only time will tell. I have a short interest at heart (hedged now) and as much I would have liked to see continuation I sense they won't roll over and die that easily.
Yes, you are right, DJIA was close to the Apocalypse @15 500.
What does it tell us ? Next time, it is cooked. Next support is @14 200 !! (2007 high).
Yes, 14 200 ! No real support before.
How many resistances ? Multiples : 16 510 / 16 600 / 16 900 / 17 200 etc.
No interest to take the last points / pips, it just doesn't worth it.
CM
My gut tells me DJIA will not really sell off until we at least stagnate for a while to kiss monthly 10 period average. This is what I think will take place, perhaps you have probabilities on your side, if not, then it's a 50/50 shoot.
The next tick is the 50/50 probability. You can delude yourself into believing a level is "where retail shorted" or whatever, and retail is dumb-money, but then there is no impact from making the dumb-money cover... as ostensibly they wont spike volume.
"Dealers are risk-on" is ridiculous. Like he knows that DB is heavily net long equity exposure at n-price. They could be carrying inventory from customer flows from 2000. The fact is that you don't have a clue but that it reinforces cognitive dissonance.
And FWIW, we are a f*ck of a lot closer to 1880 (19 and counting) than 1955.
Risk on = 17 pts lower in "spoos"
"Dealers are risk-on" is ridiculous. Like he knows that DB is heavily net long equity exposure at n-price. They could be carrying inventory from customer flows from 2000. The fact is that you don't have a clue but that it reinforces cognitive dissonance.
And FWIW, we are a f*ck of a lot closer to 1880 (19 and counting) than 1955.
Risk on = 17 pts lower in "spoos"
But what about the fat lady?
Romik, I used to be like you. When I was in doubt, my guts told me how to react.
I am an instinctive guy, and it helped me a lot of time.
But gut feeling is not an edge in financial markets, because if markets are volatil, you interpret them with emotions and don't let the markets tell you what is happening.
I trade better when I don't anticipate but just analyze. And if common sense / gut feeling are in line with my analysis : I pyramid my trade and bet more.
CM
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