I agree with the vast majority of your analysis. --and thank you--- A couple of points I would like to add or mention. 1. As usual Trump has done the right thing and been transparent in allowing the investigation to go wherever it wants, much as he has done with Russian collusion ridicumas. 2. I think there will be 2 or 3 Dems that go for Kavanaugh and this may speed things up-------I love how Trump calls the miscreants out---Izzy.
Yup. Manchin is a dem who will go with Kavanaugh. And Heidi Heitcamp is a fencesitter who looked like she might vote against but the most recent polls put her ten points down now, so she will be rethinking that a bit. Clair McCaskill wants to vote against him but she is down by a couple points in the poll of late so she has thinking to do too. Might be able to get them defeated if they vote agains kavanaugh and then go again with the confirmation. Yeh, its a nasty game.
I suppose if someone put a gun to my head and compelled me to cough up my prediction I would see kavanaugh getting confirmed with an extra vote to spare, but if it were a trade I would not take it and just stand aside.