The CL/NQ experiment

[Gabe2004]

I may have posted that somewhere because I have such a system.

Yes this is roughly it.

as you're about to place any order, "Would this trade be logged as valid if I was doing an end-of-day analysis right now?"

When looking at my trades at the end of the day, many times I ask my self "what was I thinking" so your question is a very good one and I will stick it to my monitors until I am brain washed.

Gabe

 

[Gabe2004]

he asks you to learn to think in probabilities

I truly understand and believe in the above but that by itself is still not enough (at least in my case)

Thinking and trading like a professional is boring.

I don't know if you also generalize that everything executed professionally is boring.
I find some of the other things that I do fascinating and I am really having fun doing them.
With regards to trading, call me crazy, but I like watching charts. I am not bored.
I think that once I get bored with trading, whether I am successful or not, I would quit.

start a journal in which you describe your understanding of every paragraph of his book The Disciplined Trader.

That's a tall order but I will try something along the line of your recommendation

Gabe

 

[Gabe2004]

But people shouldn't be lured into thinking that if they have the pysch stuff pat down, they are going to be successful.

Funny that not too many people say that but I agree with you fully.
One will not succeed without the proper physical tools. In the case of trading it is a system with an edge.
Just believing that you will succeed without an edge, will lead to failure the same as one with an edge but without the proper psychological makeup.

Gabe

 

[Gabe2004]

If you have no edge to start with or if specific conditions no longer exist to support an edge that's dependent on such conditions, Douglas' books will be of no value

The question is how will you find out that you have an edge (apart from back testing which many people do in the wrong way anyway so the results of their back testing is meaningless).
The reason I ask this is that with my talks with many people the answer to my question "do you have an edge?" was "yes". When I asked them how do they know that they have an edge, practically no-one could give a conclusive answer.
Next it turned out, that most of the unsuccessful trader sabotaged themselves because they really did not believe that they had an edge and wher they had one or not, did not matter.

Gabe

 

[AAAintheBeltway]

I know I said I wouldn't be back, but this thread is so much like an accident on the side of the road: you just have to slow down and watch.

What is most fascinating to me is that ND keeps pushing outstanding advice and guidance and yet all of you keep resisting her even though you're all failing. I wish somebody would explain that to me.

No offense.

Gabe seems like a nice guy, and I hope he can make it work.

I have noticed however a certain resistance to outside suggestions. The problem for a newbie or a losing trader is they don't know which suggestions are good and which are not. You can't follow everyone. The problem is the people who are the most supportive to a guy like gabe are likely to be fellow losing traders. Someone who knows what they are doing is likely to make an observation or two and if they are ignored, keep silent.

I don't know if ND makes money, but she seems to know what she is doing. He is lucky she is offering guidance.

 

[Gabe2004]

I know I said I wouldn't be back, but this thread is so much like an accident on the side of the road: you just have to slow down and watch.

Et tu, Brute?
This I did not expect.
I wonder what is your criteria for actually chipping in as opposed to watching the accident.
In real life I either continue driving at the same speed or stop to help. Not to watch.
But that's just me and I am not as famous as you are.

No offense.

Gabe

 

[Redneck]

Being successful requires 3 things

Method – Tools – Trader

None more or less important…, but it imperative all 3 work in unison

As to edges;

Trading insider information is an edge – few of us will ever have access to (not to mention it illegal)

The edge we should focus on;

“An edge is just the greater probability of one thing happening over an other” (douglas)

Mkt is uncertain

jmdao

RN

 

[Gabe2004]

Gabe seems like a nice guy, and I hope he can make it work.

Thanks. I am blushing.

The problem is the people who are the most supportive to a guy like gabe are likely to be fellow losing traders.

I don't know if I would call it support. Rather I would call it affinity.

Someone who knows what they are doing is likely to make an observation or two and if they are ignored, keep silent.

You are right and what I noticed is that some people in my situation are getting extensive help and some are not.
I don't know why or what is the difference.
It is just an observation.

...ND... she seems to know what she is doing. He is lucky she is offering guidance.

Yes I am and I am grateful for her help.

Gabe

 

[AAAintheBeltway]

So how do you find out if your system has a positive expectancy when you cannot execute it properly from day to day (the reason/excuse being "I am not confident in the system!?")?

The years we spend in the dark could be significantly shortened with the answer to this.... I think we know the answer.

The easy answer is that you have to backtest. You won't live long enough to try out an adequate number of approaches in real time with a sim account.

People say backtesting isn't a guarantee. No , it isn't, but if you can't make money off historical data, how do you expect to make it in real time?

I see several big benefits from backtesting. The most obvious is confirming methods, like indicator-based trading, that don't work. Backtesting will teach you invaluable lessons about the use of stops.

Of course you can do it incorrectly and draw erroneous conclusions. Most commercially sold systems are marketed on that basis.

Most people think of backtesting as only useful for systems traders, but I disagree. I look on it as a way to shorten the learning curve and force yourself to think outside the box.

 

[Gabe2004]

Being successful requires 3 things

Method – Tools – Trader.

Could you give an example as to the TOOLS you are referring to? I understand the other 2.

“An edge is just the greater probability of one thing happening over an other” (douglas)

Those who know me know, that probabilities are at the top of the list, right next to Schnitzel and very good sound systems.
I have stats on many things (I just enjoy playing with numbers) yet for some reason it is still not enough to get me to the promised land (as a trader )
And I can assure everyone that I understand and believe that trading is a probabilities game/profession.

Thanks for your post RN.

Gabe