The ACD Method

Maverick74 said:
Well, just to clarify, these calls are meant to be taken using ACD protocol. I'm attaching the monthly levels of GBP/JPY and you can see there is no heat on any of the shorts and that the GBP/JPY performed far better then the ES short.

Sept and Nov you had textbook perfect wicks to sell into that marked the swing highs almost to the pip. It's the very definition of not taking heat.
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Very nice instructional post Mav.
 
Maverick74 said:
Yeah this is where I really disagree with him. He is calling for a recession in China and all of asia yet this is not going to affect demand for oil? The US surely is not going to make up the slack and God knows Europe won't. Also when Iran goes online they will sell oil hand over fist before any new sanctions get levied on them. I think the energy recovery is still a post 2017 event. And energy equities are even worse. There is going to be an avalanche of bankruptcies this year in that space. Historically this usually marks the bottom (liquidation of bad debt). After this happens I think we will see a meaningful bottom but not before.

IF.......................his thesis were to be true, in my humble opinion I would rush to the alternative space. What crushed the TAN etf and all the solar and wind players was low oil prices. Not even free wind and solar could compete with $35 oil and $2 nat gas. But if oil prices were to go meaningfully higher as he suggests, I would be long the wind and solar names.

This is one of those rare times where I'm deeply puzzled by his thesis.
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Yeah probably you are right and his timing is certainly off. To his defense he admitted that his views are dogmatic and said that slowdown in global markets will still result in positive gdp with some growth (hence demand for energy stays there). Also he mentioned 3-5 years timeframe, but it is not that practical for trading and is more like an investment and capital allocation advice. However I believe rebound in energy is going to be swift so someone who can get his timing right might make a lot of money. Just first we need to see some bankruptcies, buyouts and mergers. Thanks for TAN etf btw, didnt know about it :)
 
Maverick74 said:
TAN.....SCTY
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Do you primarily do option plays still on your equity signals, or do you buy them outright? I remember reading where you have said you primarily do options so wasn't sure. TAN options didn't seem to have much activity. Thanks for answering lots of questions!
 
FCXoptions said:
Do you primarily do option plays still on your equity signals, or do you buy them outright? I remember reading where you have said you primarily do options so wasn't sure. TAN options didn't seem to have much activity. Thanks for answering lots of questions!
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Both. Depends on environmental factors. I have no position in TAN. It just came up on my filter as a strong index and SCTY came up strong within that index. I do have an option position in SCTY.
 
redbaron1981 said:
Wow!!!

Mav since the majority of the markets are in the red today, I take it this action makes these two look even stronger from a price action viewpoint?

Thanks
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Yes correct but this index has been strong relative to the market for a little while. But yeah, today it really sticks out.
 
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