The ACD Method

[Maverick74]

Well, just to clarify, these calls are meant to be taken using ACD protocol. I'm attaching the monthly levels of GBP/JPY and you can see there is no heat on any of the shorts and that the GBP/JPY performed far better then the ES short.

Sept and Nov you had textbook perfect wicks to sell into that marked the swing highs almost to the pip. It's the very definition of not taking heat.

 

[Maverick74]

So when I talk about some product looking "good" or we are currently in a risk on or risk off environment, that does not mean go to town and throw all the ACD rules out the window. It means look for your spots to get into the trade. We have daily levels, weekly levels, monthly levels and quarterly levels. Something for the whole family! Whatever your time frame is, that is the level you are watching.

 

[redbaron1981]

Happy New Year everyone and I hope you all have a very prosperous 2016.

Mav thanks for keeping this thread alive along with your excellent contributions and calls. You have certainly made a huge impact on my own trading and I am extremely grateful for it.

All the best.

 

[koolaid]

View attachment 160301 LOL

Timing is everything re: short GBP/JPY

Unless you like taking heat like Rearden...


GBP/JPY went UP from ~ 181.00 (28 Sep 2015) to ~ 188.50 (Nov 19)

GBP/JPY only started its descent from 188.50 (Nov 19 2015)

Sep 23
http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/the-acd-method.170318/page-1036#post-4182459

Sep 28
http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/the-acd-method.170318/page-1039#post-4185028

Oct 22
http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/the-acd-method.170318/page-1046#post-4197715

Yea...this is absolutely true. I think the only possible way to trade that would be to slowly scale into the trade over the course of the next 2 months...which would have you underwater for quite a bit still. GBP/JPY can swing 1000pips easily.

 

[Maverick74]

Yea...this is absolutely true. I think the only possible way to trade that would be to slowly scale into the trade over the course of the next 2 months...which would have you underwater for quite a bit still. GBP/JPY can swing 1000pips easily.

You should NEVER EVER take heat on a trade using the ACD methodology or any other. The entire purpose of trading is the antithesis of this. A market practitioner's skill is judged by his/her ability to extract gain from the market with the least units of risk.

There were ample opportunities to sell GBP/JPY with VERY defined risk thresholds that provided ZERO heat. You don't want to simply scale into something and hold it because the opportunity cost of that capital is huge because there are 1000 other trades you "could" have taken that worked that didn't provide that heat. Sorry guys, I'm a big stickler on this issue as it goes against everything ACD stands for.

 

[Maverick74]

“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.”

“Speculation is a hard and trying business, and a speculator must be on the job all the time or he’ll soon have no job to be on.”

Jesse Livermore

 

[wow12]

Mav using some Hegelian philosophy ?

I have usually found instruments that have been in the public eye for long time and then have fallen off and forgotten about are usually best places to create a trade and to extract value that's what i have seen so far , i could be wrong ( unless I'm going against everyone's public opinion on certain instrument's they believe that will make them a sure profit ).

 

[Maverick74]

Mav using some Hegelian philosophy ?

I have usually found instruments that have been in the public eye for long time and then have fallen off and forgotten about are usually best places to create a trade and to extract value that's what i have seen so far , i could be wrong ( unless I'm going against everyone's public opinion on certain instrument's they believe that will make them a sure profit ).

Yes, I call this traffic. One needs to avoid traffic which is trading stuff that everyone else is trading and watching. Traffic creates unnecessary adverse moves that not only stop you out but create noise that makes it much harder to ascertain the signal. Markets which are being ignored or perhaps not even discovered yet are quiet. The data has real meaning. Not only is it easy to get the signal, but one can get it with very little traffic.

 

[Trader13]

“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.”

“Speculation is a hard and trying business, and a speculator must be on the job all the time or he’ll soon have no job to be on.”

Jesse Livermore

Words of wisdom spoken by someone who did not die in his sleep.

 

[FCXoptions]

Well, just to clarify, these calls are meant to be taken using ACD protocol. I'm attaching the monthly levels of GBP/JPY and you can see there is no heat on any of the shorts and that the GBP/JPY performed far better then the ES short.

Sept and Nov you had textbook perfect wicks to sell into that marked the swing highs almost to the pip. It's the very definition of not taking heat.

Mav,

Do you put these lines on there yourself or do you have that automated in whatever you use for your charts?