was thinking earlier today..."how long until the oil charts shown in The Logical Trader look like today instead of 15 years ago"
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The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
was thinking earlier today..."how long until the oil charts shown in The Logical Trader look like today instead of 15 years ago"
was thinking earlier today..."how long until the oil charts shown in The Logical Trader look like today instead of 15 years ago"
Yeah that's true. Almost all his examples were with oil in the teens and 20's and that was WITH the spikes.
Still think we'll make all time highs this year?
I guess this flush to the downside happening in the first two weeks can be a plus going into earning season.
Yeah, I think this bull market will end with a parabolic top at some point. I gave March/April as a time stamp but that's only because historically that is usually when liquidity peaks. If we don't see that spike then honestly then bull market runs for another 2 or 3 years. I don't think that is likely though. I'm still leaning on the spike in early spring with a recession by the end of this year. Oil bottom sometime in 2017.
With negative confirms I wouldn't be long right now though even though the ES is getting close to the monthly A down.
btw...for the energy guys. One thing to note in all the bleakness of the NLs...look at heating oil calendars. yes, the forward curve is still awfully steep, but it has done some flattening the past 2 weeks, while crude spreads running opposite. some crack plays may be looming, and our spread NLs for these are actually positive
from Bernanke's blog Mav:
During “risk-on” periods, according to this research, financial capital flows into emerging markets, leading to increases in risky asset prices, faster credit growth, and more leverage. This process can reverse sharply during high-volatility “risk-off” periods, with possibly adverse economic as well as financial effects. Although various factors can cause changes in market risk preferences, Rey and others find that U.S. monetary policy is one trigger of such shifts, with easier Fed policy tending to be followed by greater risk appetite and vice versa.
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-.../06-tantrums-and-hot-money?rssid=Ben+Bernanke
During “risk-on” periods, according to this research, financial capital flows into emerging markets, leading to increases in risky asset prices, faster credit growth, and more leverage. This process can reverse sharply during high-volatility “risk-off” periods, with possibly adverse economic as well as financial effects. Although various factors can cause changes in market risk preferences, Rey and others find that U.S. monetary policy is one trigger of such shifts, with easier Fed policy tending to be followed by greater risk appetite and vice versa.
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-.../06-tantrums-and-hot-money?rssid=Ben+Bernanke
from Bernanke's blog Mav:
During “risk-on” periods, according to this research, financial capital flows into emerging markets, leading to increases in risky asset prices, faster credit growth, and more leverage. This process can reverse sharply during high-volatility “risk-off” periods, with possibly adverse economic as well as financial effects. Although various factors can cause changes in market risk preferences, Rey and others find that U.S. monetary policy is one trigger of such shifts, with easier Fed policy tending to be followed by greater risk appetite and vice versa.
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-.../06-tantrums-and-hot-money?rssid=Ben+Bernanke
Yeah I agree with all of that although I don't believe there has been a real "shift" in policy yet. Look at monetary policy around the world as one policy. Yeah the US has slowly shifted to a slightly upward bias in rates however the whole world is still pushing lower. In the world economy no such shift has occurred yet. I'm not sure when that will happen but when it does, he is absolutely right.
USDCAD rejected A-down earlier today using NY open (0800 est)...now sitting at monthly A-up
USDCAD looks like it had the quickest move to the monthly A up in quite some time...kinda similar to the action from last Jan
Haven't posted about index number lines in a while, ES and NQ still confirmed negative. ES has been confirmed since Dec 10th.
Hey Mav...You are still confirmed negative? I know we all score differently but I would find it helpful (when you have some time) if you could please post a snapshot of your number line and some insight into how you arrive at your bias. The reason I ask is I had a similar confirm on Dec 11th using something similar to Fish's method but by the 30th I was back to Zero and what I interpreted as a neutral bias. I am looking to expand my understanding of the 30d NL concept to stay in trades longer so any insight would be appreciated. Thanks.
On a different note...with the ES trading lower overnite then sideways during the pit session do you change your scoring? Thanks again.
Yeah I agree with all of that although I don't believe there has been a real "shift" in policy yet. Look at monetary policy around the world as one policy. Yeah the US has slowly shifted to a slightly upward bias in rates however the whole world is still pushing lower. In the world economy no such shift has occurred yet. I'm not sure when that will happen but when it does, he is absolutely right.
This was more about a former fed president using the term "risk on" "risk off". He talks about the taper tantrum as well. To me this shows the fed is really paying attention to the market like a trader. good insight on their psychology.