Technical Analysis Doesn't Work

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Quote from jack hershey:

This guy (Surfer) is in lala land.

As you have seen, surfer missed the boat and it has sailed.

What makes SCT, in thunderdog's words, unbelievable and astonishing and what makes SCT "uncanny accurate" in surfer's words is their experiencially based standards.

For some reason they believe they know and their colleagues know what a trading standard is. There is no way whatsoever surfer's acquaintances who may have some capital are going to be responsive to anything surfer could do to describe what SCT does nor how SCT works. They would think it is unbelievable, astonishing and "canny accurate" and. therefore, just something that cannot be possible in the conventional orthodoxy.

Also surfer does not have any idea of what it takes to meet with big money. He has no idea of how programming is done or works for dealing with big money. He is living, as he states, in CD land.

SCT, and PVT for that matter, is a paradigm that is totally based on a non-probabilistic system. This has been explained thoroughly in ET and surfer did not get it. He only sees that it is way beyond his comprehension when demonstrated to him on his terms.

We totally expect people like surfer and thunderdog to not "get it" This is par for the course for most people.

There are those who do get the message. They are outside of surfer's colleagual relationships de facto. We have met an assortment of people in an assortment of financial centers of the world. It IS possible for successful expert professional persons to get it and to understand the implications of PVT and SCT.

They do not ever make the mistake of thinking there are any ferverent beliefs involved. They are totally capable of seeing by observation that none of Steenbarger, Lo et al, etc., is in the space. They clearly observe that SCT and PVT are out of the conventional orthodoxy. They understand when we tell them that many people cannot grasp what we do and, therefore, we cannot work with such people.

Surfer is bent spindled and mutilated as far as we can see. So is thunderdog and ranfiel and so on down the line.

These people have posted histories that you all can read. You can see them going away from getting anything that is related to what the market offers. Decision by decision they chose time after time to eliminate any possibility of becoming successful traders.

There is a large and dominating journalist turned writer BS'ers club in our culture and the financial indusrtry. Great examples include: Bass, Lowenstein, Covell, etc. There are dozens and dozens of camp followers who present at conferences and workshops; examples include Perez, Turner, Pring, Alchulter, etc., etc. The academic community is repleat with people who are unable to grasp how markets work, science is applied to markets, and how traders do trade very successfully.

Smoking out ET detractors is unimportant. They are just examples of people who have screwed themselves by their personal choices. They show how they get the consequences.

Ordinarily, I no longer post outside of the journals and then only rarely. This is an exception simply because a milestone has just passed. Trends work and are valuable. TA is a foundational scientific cornerstone for successful trading. whatever has been laid out there by the likes of surfer and thunderdog, et al, is something that can be devalued to nothing since that is what it is worth.

What is very important is to not emulate the poor thinking and decision making that has put these people in the place where they will be for the rest of their lives.

What is takes to become an expert trader is simply work and making the right decisions while doing the necessary learning.
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I'm sorry, Jack, did I wake you?
 
Quote from Vienna:

But then, mysteriously, he offers to buy lunch at 99 Cent Steakhouse... ......
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hey...no ripping on my fave place! ya gotta save where you can....

tad's is great for adding meat to one's bones. how do you think I developed this girth? eat there all the time .... just ask the winner of the lunch with marketsurfer auction.
surf:D from treo somewhere west of eden.......& 2 far south of my love.....even when novacained
 
Here is one example--- a colleague was kind enough to forward this study---thanks

Volume appears to be a primary tenet of TA. However studies indicate that there is NO correlation between volume and large price moves, although TA practioners lean on this old market myth.

http://www.santafe.edu/research/publications/workingpapers/04-02-006.pdf


so much for "constant volume bars" and other mystical works.

continue to believe the comforting myth or face reality. your choice.


any questions??


regards,

surf
 
Quote from Vienna:

Who is this guy (hedgeinvestor)??
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Marketsurfer runs evhedge.com.
And evhedge.com is the email adress of hedgeinvestor.
So who do you think hedgeinvestor is?
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Here is one example--- a colleague was kind enough to forward this study---thanks

Volume appears to be a primary tenet of TA. However studies indicate that there is NO correlation between volume and large price moves, although TA practioners lean on this old market myth.


any questions??


regards,

surf
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Your colleague should do some some studie work. I use TA and i don't care about volume as volume has no importance to me except for the fact that i need volume to be able to trade.
Some use volume, some don't. Volume is not essential to TA.
Is the TA you are talking about from before Worldwar 1 or from after that war?
 
ok, good to know. im speaking directly of classical TA, many TA books i have read, the words of multiple TA aficionados ( whom i have had the pleasure of knowing and having friendships with a few), and more recently spydertrader, and the proflogic types who appear to rely on volume in some form or another.

look for edge, guys, edge!

surf
 
Quote from jack hershey:

Surfer is bent spindled and mutilated as far as we can see. So is thunderdog and ranfiel and so on down the line.

Read my OP. Nothing from that OP to this point has overturned the original tenet.

There have been insults, doubts about psychological stability, and a number of things that fit right down the line about my original assertion of what people would put forward (see list in OP).

The funniest thing has been a handful of posts that pick away at studies and dismiss them, without any reason to dismiss them other than an occasional spelling mistake, or whining about the preconditions, appendices and conditions of the studies or anecdotal stories about why they think studies do not matter. It is thoroughly obvious most of those folks have little idea about what goes into published research.

Still, nothing solid has been put forward to disprove the original assertion.

QED: TA still does not work. And again as originally stated, this thread made very clear that pure price action was not included in this thread.
 
Quote from rcanfiel:

Still, nothing solid has been put forward to disprove the original assertion.

QED: TA still does not work. And again as originally stated, this thread made very clear that pure price action was not included in this thread.
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Either you have an inability to grasp the obvious, or you intentionally excluded my post from your analysis. Either way, it makes no difference to me.

I need to head over to the bank now and withdraw some 'fervent belief.' :D

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Here is one example--- a colleague was kind enough to forward this study---thanks

Volume appears to be a primary tenet of TA. However studies indicate that there is NO correlation between volume and large price moves, although TA practioners lean on this old market myth.

http://www.santafe.edu/research/publications/workingpapers/04-02-006.pdf


so much for "constant volume bars" and other mystical works.

continue to believe the comforting myth or face reality. your choice.


any questions??


regards,

surf
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My lucky day.

Anyone can answer these questions.

1. What is the title of the book that profiles the research and business activity principal of the paper above cited?

2. What is the name of the author?

3. How recently did I mention this author and to whom was I addressing the comment?

4. On what page of the book does the quoted conversation of this principal reveal that hes has just found out a bout bid and ask and ticks and spread? If you got the above questions right you can open the book to page 197 and read this humor.

The team that worked for the principal in the corporation that the book is named for and where the corporation was under contract to one of the donnors to the research for the above cited paper, had two members quit. they were the first to quit.

5. What did they discover that blew their minds with eagerness?

6. Who, upon returning to Sante Fe, rejected their idea?

7. What did these guys give up as a consequence?

8. How long did they make this sacrifice before they quit?

Now what if????

What if the principal ever recognizes where he refused to accept reason?

What if he goes to the logical conclusions the guys who quit had discovered?

Last question.

9. Would he throw this working paper into the shit can?

Surf you are totally screwed in your thinking. He asks "any questions?" What a funny situation to get trapped by.
 
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