Technical Analysis Doesn't Work
- Thread starter rcanfiel
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what are you talking about, there is no contradictions there.
you are really misled.
surf
Could someone, anyone other than marketsurfer, please read the 2nd and 3rd posts on page 91 of this thread and tell me whether marketsurfer contradicted himself? Please?
Yes, I'd say marketsurfer has contradicted himself.
In the first quote of the third post on that page he is making two points.
1) That some forms of TA are testable.
2) That testing shows that there is no edge due to TA, which would imply that he has seen the results of testing, which prove to him that TA does not provide an edge.
In the second quote of the same post on that page, he now states that TA is untestable. It definitely contradicts what was said in the first quote.
In the first quote of the third post on that page he is making two points.
1) That some forms of TA are testable.
2) That testing shows that there is no edge due to TA, which would imply that he has seen the results of testing, which prove to him that TA does not provide an edge.
In the second quote of the same post on that page, he now states that TA is untestable. It definitely contradicts what was said in the first quote.
marketsurfer quote:
ps. as a note of clarification, proflogic did offer me free tuition in his class, then i found out it was held in some god forsaken hick town 1000 plus miles away, so i politely declined. prof continues to refuse to show any evidence of a winning,non subjective system.
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First, your really good quotes get emailed to me for laughs. I prefer you on ignore.
The offer first was for a class in Tampa, FL. Hardly a God forsaken "hick town in the middle of nowhere". The second offer was for a class being held in a predominately agriculture community. Sorry, they are good enough to supply the food you put in your tainted pie hole but not good enough to share a classroom with, huh. You truly are a snob of the highest caliber!
ps. as a note of clarification, proflogic did offer me free tuition in his class, then i found out it was held in some god forsaken hick town 1000 plus miles away, so i politely declined. prof continues to refuse to show any evidence of a winning,non subjective system.
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First, your really good quotes get emailed to me for laughs. I prefer you on ignore.
The offer first was for a class in Tampa, FL. Hardly a God forsaken "hick town in the middle of nowhere". The second offer was for a class being held in a predominately agriculture community. Sorry, they are good enough to supply the food you put in your tainted pie hole but not good enough to share a classroom with, huh. You truly are a snob of the highest caliber!
Well, in all fairness, and in case someone missed it, marketsurfer does have offices on 5th Avenue in New York...
But then, mysteriously, he offers to buy lunch at 99 Cent Steakhouse... it must be rewarding to walk away from the ivory tower of high finance and mingle with the hoi polloi on 6th avenue, or even venture as far west as Time Square... presumably, he never reaches 10th or 11th, where all the followers of TA vegetate in squallor...
This guy (Surfer) is in lala land.
As you have seen, surfer missed the boat and it has sailed.
What makes SCT, in thunderdog's words, unbelievable and astonishing and what makes SCT "uncanny accurate" in surfer's words is their experiencially based standards.
For some reason they believe they know and their colleagues know what a trading standard is. There is no way whatsoever surfer's acquaintances who may have some capital are going to be responsive to anything surfer could do to describe what SCT does nor how SCT works. They would think it is unbelievable, astonishing and "canny accurate" and. therefore, just something that cannot be possible in the conventional orthodoxy.
Also surfer does not have any idea of what it takes to meet with big money. He has no idea of how programming is done or works for dealing with big money. He is living, as he states, in CD land.
SCT, and PVT for that matter, is a paradigm that is totally based on a non-probabilistic system. This has been explained thoroughly in ET and surfer did not get it. He only sees that it is way beyond his comprehension when demonstrated to him on his terms.
We totally expect people like surfer and thunderdog to not "get it" This is par for the course for most people.
There are those who do get the message. They are outside of surfer's colleagual relationships de facto. We have met an assortment of people in an assortment of financial centers of the world. It IS possible for successful expert professional persons to get it and to understand the implications of PVT and SCT.
They do not ever make the mistake of thinking there are any ferverent beliefs involved. They are totally capable of seeing by observation that none of Steenbarger, Lo et al, etc., is in the space. They clearly observe that SCT and PVT are out of the conventional orthodoxy. They understand when we tell them that many people cannot grasp what we do and, therefore, we cannot work with such people.
Surfer is bent spindled and mutilated as far as we can see. So is thunderdog and ranfiel and so on down the line.
These people have posted histories that you all can read. You can see them going away from getting anything that is related to what the market offers. Decision by decision they chose time after time to eliminate any possibility of becoming successful traders.
There is a large and dominating journalist turned writer BS'ers club in our culture and the financial indusrtry. Great examples include: Bass, Lowenstein, Covell, etc. There are dozens and dozens of camp followers who present at conferences and workshops; examples include Perez, Turner, Pring, Alchulter, etc., etc. The academic community is repleat with people who are unable to grasp how markets work, science is applied to markets, and how traders do trade very successfully.
Smoking out ET detractors is unimportant. They are just examples of people who have screwed themselves by their personal choices. They show how they get the consequences.
Ordinarily, I no longer post outside of the journals and then only rarely. This is an exception simply because a milestone has just passed. Trends work and are valuable. TA is a foundational scientific cornerstone for successful trading. whatever has been laid out there by the likes of surfer and thunderdog, et al, is something that can be devalued to nothing since that is what it is worth.
What is very important is to not emulate the poor thinking and decision making that has put these people in the place where they will be for the rest of their lives.
What is takes to become an expert trader is simply work and making the right decisions while doing the necessary learning.
As it happens that's where I had my office, until the refrigerator box was blown away in a recent storm. Even so, we're a crafty lot here. The more cunning among us study pedestrian traffic patterns, compare them to historical ones, and then take aggressive positions where panhandling has typically been the most profitable. Naturally, marketsurfer would conclude that it can't be done. But I'm patient and fairly confident that, as his current trading unfolds in the aggregate and reaches its likely conclusion, he may soon have the opportunity to test our system for himself on our curb exchange.
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