Taking 76K to 500K by Year End

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Quote from neke:

Weekly Update for week 12 ended 5/18/2007

Awful! Awful!! Awful!!!

I am still trying to figure out what hit me this week. Never did I expect this type of drawdown and this sudden. Made all the mistakes I have warned myself against: averaging on losses, chasing stocks, subjecting myself to be whipsawed. Just summoned up enough courage to post an update here.
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Neke:

You made some mistakes in your game, and now you have to take the losses. Never a fun experience.

On the positive side, you're being honest with yourself and know where you went wrong. If you know where you went wrong and are honest about your mistakes, you'll be able to overcome them and come back.

My advice is to get the "behind target profit mentality" out of your head for a bit.

Regroup, get down what your bread and butter trading setups are going to be, and get back into your trading rhythm.

Once you're back on track, scale your size back up so you can take on the amount of risk you need to assume to meet the financial goals you want to achive.

Best of luck !

-T
 
Some questions for Elite observers:

Using just the data posted here on this trading journal:

1. What is the probability that this account will reach $500,000 before reaching $0 or a negative number?

2. Would you fire this trader or increase his bonus?
 
Commendations on the guts for posting your results.

Maybe Hillary Clinton could give you some pointers. She had some big returns similar to your goal swingin big cattle futs back in the day.
 
Thanks to all who gave feedback and advice after the last update. At a time like this, there is normally a lot of introspection and a new resolve to be disciplined and address the harmful tendencies. I am reactivating my automated checks on my leverage, and also revising my stop loss policy; Ultimately I will get the computer to automatically generate a stop loss order on any discretionary position initiated. Similarly I shall get the computer to recognise when an addition has been made to a losing trade and close the excess additions automatically.

The good thing is that normally I will not make these mistakes soon after. It is normally after the account has come up much that the old devils try to rear up their heads. It will not be possible to automate all my strategies, but eventually, I should have enough automated to generate enough profits so I will not lay myself open to the discretionary traps: but that is still some time away.
 
I also took the biggest hit ever last week. What was it about last week, sheeessh.
My plan after a train wreck week is to slow down take a step back, analyze, basically regroup. Scale back position size until you get back on the winning track.
Stop trading altogether for a few days if you feel that's what you need to do. Don't trade if you're feeling a lot of pressure or have any negative feelings in your mind or your judgement will be severly affected.

So far today I'm 2 for 2 and I hope you will recover well from the little setback last week.

Good Luck.
 
After much thought I have decided to define some rules to help me avoid a repeat of those bad trades. I have defined them as two commandments by which I will have to measure myself at the end of each week. These will be critical if my profit objective is to be met: I cannot afford to throw away money frivolously any more. Here they are in order of importance:


1. Thou shalt not add to a losing position, or any position at all. Determine your size at the initial entry and place your order at the time or limit determined until the whole position is taken. Once the position is taken, no more addition.

2. Thou shalt not take a reversal position in a ticker you have closed at a loss within the last 30 minutes. Give yourself time to think clearly and do not make an emotional decision. Avoid the whipsaw effect. For example if you bought at 100 and sold at 95, you should not immediately short at 95. Allow at least 30 minutes for you to see clearly.



Any violation of the above will call for deep introspection and repentance, and a commitment not to repeat it.

As soon as I have enough time, I will automate the monitoring of my account for these types of violations, with immediate closure of the offending trades.
 
Quote from segv:

Some questions for Elite observers:

Using just the data posted here on this trading journal:

1. What is the probability that this account will reach $500,000 before reaching $0 or a negative number?

2. Would you fire this trader or increase his bonus?
More...

1. I would say the probability of hitting 500K before 0 is close to 100%. Even in the bubble days of Nasdaq (at 5000+) the chance it will hit 20000 before 0 is still amost 100% (as long as the index is still alive). If it is hitting it this year, sure the last update has brought down the probability, but it is still possible.

2. I would fire him. But if he manages to hit his target by year-end I would rehire him. (I can't fire myself, can I?).
 
5/25/2007
Weekly Update for week 13 ended 5/25/2007

A little relief after last week's blow. No trade delivering a super-size return, but pleased to report I played according to plan. There was no violation of any of the two commandments (adding to a losing position, or playing a whipsaw revenge trade).

The only trade I was disappointed with was NTAP. I shorted 4000 shares after hours on Wed after their disappointing earnings forecaste at 33.60. The stock came as low as 30.00 after hours. Normally I hold such positions to the end of day the following day if it is profitable. The stock proved so strong the first 30 minutes of trading (on some silly analyst reiteration of outperform) and I was forced to cover at 34.10 for a loss of nearly 2K.

The stock eventually ended the day at 31.76. I should not have seen a loss on that position. I guess I need some policy on taking some profit when they come soon after taking a position.

OK after this week, I think my probability of hitting the target by year-end has notched up to 45%. Last week I put the probability at 40%. Week before that it was as high as 90%.

The attached screen shots show the balance and performance (the GainsKeeper statement has not reflected the result for friday, while the balance shown includes unrealised gains on an existing position).

Code: 
Balance B/F:                   		 90,370
Loss for the week             		 20,581
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		110,951
Number of Trades	            	 25
Number of Profitable Trades    	    	 15

Since Inception of Thread   2/25/2007 - 5/25/2007

Balance B/F:                   		 76,636
Net Gain (Less Margin Interest)		 53,315
Cash Withdrawal		       		-19,000
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		110,951
Number of Trades	           	 352
Number of Profitable Trades        	 222

Expected Balance at this time to be on track for Year-End Target : 
			       133,381
Status:			       Behind Target

Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week


TICKER	ENTRY DATE/TIME		EXIT DATE/TIME		QTY	PURCHASE AMT	SOLD AMT	GAINS		TYPE

ADI	2007-05-22-16-49-29	2007-05-23-15-49-50	3000	109200		114906		5684		SHORT
HOLX	2007-05-21-08-17-18	2007-05-21-09-50-10	1000	53709		59000		5270		SHORT
NTAP	2007-05-23-16-08-09	2007-05-24-09-53-55	4000	136276		134336		-1973		SHORT
CYPB	2007-05-23-11-24-22	2007-05-23-12-43-35	3000	52077		49680		-2418		LONG
 

Attachments

Quote from neke:

5/25/2007
Weekly Update for week 13 ended 5/25/2007

A little relief after last week's blow. No trade delivering a super-size return, but pleased to report I played according to plan. There was no violation of any of the two commandments (adding to a losing position, or playing a whipsaw revenge trade).

The only trade I was disappointed with was NTAP. I shorted 4000 shares after hours on Wed after their disappointing earnings forecaste at 33.60. The stock came as low as 30.00 after hours. Normally I hold such positions to the end of day the following day if it is profitable. The stock proved so strong the first 30 minutes of trading (on some silly analyst reiteration of outperform) and I was forced to cover at 34.10 for a loss of nearly 2K.

The stock eventually ended the day at 31.76. I should not have seen a loss on that position. I guess I need some policy on taking some profit when they come soon after taking a position.

OK after this week, I think my probability of hitting the target by year-end has notched up to 45%. Last week I put the probability at 40%. Week before that it was as high as 90%.

The attached screen shots show the balance and performance (the GainsKeeper statement has not reflected the result for friday, while the balance shown includes unrealised gains on an existing position).

Code: 
Balance B/F:                   		 90,370
Loss for the week             		 20,581
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		110,951
Number of Trades	            	 25
Number of Profitable Trades    	    	 15

Since Inception of Thread   2/25/2007 - 5/25/2007

Balance B/F:                   		 76,636
Net Gain (Less Margin Interest)		 53,315
Cash Withdrawal		       		-19,000
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		110,951
Number of Trades	           	 352
Number of Profitable Trades        	 222

Expected Balance at this time to be on track for Year-End Target : 
			       133,381
Status:			       Behind Target

Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week


TICKER	ENTRY DATE/TIME		EXIT DATE/TIME		QTY	PURCHASE AMT	SOLD AMT	GAINS		TYPE

ADI	2007-05-22-16-49-29	2007-05-23-15-49-50	3000	109200		114906		5684		SHORT
HOLX	2007-05-21-08-17-18	2007-05-21-09-50-10	1000	53709		59000		5270		SHORT
NTAP	2007-05-23-16-08-09	2007-05-24-09-53-55	4000	136276		134336		-1973		SHORT
CYPB	2007-05-23-11-24-22	2007-05-23-12-43-35	3000	52077		49680		-2418		LONG
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is there any particular reason that ur using ameritrade? Why not use IB or something?
 
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