Taking 76K to 500K by Year End

neke · May 11, 2007

Weekly Update for week 11 ended 5/11/2007

I made a modest 9K this week, albeit with much volatility. Got whipsawed on Monday trading AL after the bid from Alcoa. Shorted at 79.2 covered at 81.74 for a loss of 10K, then bought at 82.27, sold at 80.95 for another loss of 5K. I should know better than subject myself to a whipsaw!

On Tuesday lost 9.9K shorting MSTR. Fortunately Wednesday made 14K from FWLT (sold at 87.75, a lot premature seeing how it finished up Friday at 96). Thursday and Friday were both positive, offsetting my losses and giving me a net of 9K for the week. Not too shabby.

Code:

Balance B/F:                   		175,280
Profitfor the week             		  9,301
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		184,581
Number of Trades	            	31
Number of Profitable Trades    	    	20

Since Inception of Thread   2/25/2007 - 5/11/2007

Balance B/F:                   		 76,636
Net Gain (Less Margin Interest)		126,945
Cash Withdrawal		       		-19,000
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		184,581
Number of Trades	           	299
Number of Profitable Trades        	195

Expected Balance at this time to be on track for Year-End Target : 
			       122,481
Status:			       Ahead of Target

Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week

TICKER	ENTRY DATE/TIME		EXIT DATE/TIME		QTY	PURCHASE AMT	SOLD AMT	GAINS		TYPE

FWLT	2007-05-09-11-06-39	2007-05-09-15-59-07	2000	161489.8	175505.3	13992.9		LONG
NGA	2007-05-10-13-40-39	2007-05-10-15-34-57	13500	179532		184230.4	4665.6		SHORT
MSTR	2007-05-08-09-08-13	2007-05-08-13-09-31	3000	305382		295500		-9906.5		SHORT
AL	2007-05-07-09-03-02	2007-05-07-11-08-39	4000	326987		316935		-10096.8	SHORT

acerbits · May 11, 2007

what kind of setups do you use neke? your losses seem to be pretty high relative to your gains. Whats your average expectancy?

neke · May 12, 2007

Quote from acerbits:

what kind of setups do you use neke? your losses seem to be pretty high relative to your gains. Whats your average expectancy?

OK I decided to review my stock trades since the thread started. In general I do not place a hard stop loss. If it is intrad-day, I watch and
determine when I give up on the trade and exit. Like I mentioned in an earlier post, my commitment on each intra-day stock could range anything from 25% of my account to as much as 200%, depending on expected volatility of the stock. The average has been 80%. Overnight positions are much smaller.

Since the start of the thread, my stock trades have been 65% profitable, and 35% unprofitable. On the average winning trade, the underlying changed by 2.2%, while for the average losing trade the change had been 1.9% (you multiply that by the leverage to determine the impact on my account). The profit factor (total profit from winners / total losses from losers) has been 1.6. There are strategies that are for fixed durations, and I would not exit a stock before that duration. For others I could consider placing a hard stop loss, but my experience tells me it could lead to a lot of unwarranted losses: I do not like the market to shake me out of positions I entered on conviction. I would rather evaluate the situation myself and take action.

acerbits · May 12, 2007

Quote from neke:

OK I decided to review my stock trades since the thread started. In general I do not place a hard stop loss. If it is intrad-day, I watch and
determine when I give up on the trade and exit. Like I mentioned in an earlier post, my commitment on each intra-day stock could range anything from 25% of my account to as much as 200%, depending on expected volatility of the stock. The average has been 80%. Overnight positions are much smaller.

Since the start of the thread, my stock trades have been 65% profitable, and 35% unprofitable. On the average winning trade, the underlying changed by 2.2%, while for the average losing trade the change had been 1.9% (you multiply that by the leverage to determine the impact on my account). The profit factor (total profit from winners / total losses from losers) has been 1.6. There are strategies that are for fixed durations, and I would not exit a stock before that duration. For others I could consider placing a hard stop loss, but my experience tells me it could lead to a lot of unwarranted losses: I do not like the market to shake me out of positions I entered on conviction. I would rather evaluate the situation myself and take action.

I think you should adjust your stop a little. Lets say that your average loss = risk wich is 1.9% = 1R, and your average gain of 2.2% is 1.1579R that means your expectancy is 0.4R per trade. I didn't pay very close attention to the time frame your trading in, but im assuming few hours to a few days? for intraday 0.4R is pretty good, for swing trading I think you should adjust your stop so ur expectancy moves up to 0.6R or so. If you can bring your risk down to 1.5% while maintaining your current gains, than you can achieve that.

Personally, I only trade intraday. I'm trading futures right now with roughly 2% risk to my portfolio with my stops, it's roughly 50/50 split between winners n losers, I aim for 1.6-2R gains, that gives me a expectancy of 0.3-0.5R which is pretty good to me.

neke · May 18, 2007

Weekly Update for week 12 ended 5/18/2007

Awful! Awful!! Awful!!!

I am still trying to figure out what hit me this week. Never did I expect this type of drawdown and this sudden. Made all the mistakes I have warned myself against: averaging on losses, chasing stocks, subjecting myself to be whipsawed. Just summoned up enough courage to post an update here.

On monday chased CRTX, buying it near the top (2.99) and selling much lower. Monday after hours bought a bunch of shares of ICFI after earnings release, thinking the figures and projection were good. Saw it low pre-market tuesday; instead of finding out why, bought a whole lot more at an average of 25.3, sold at 20.10 towards the close of market: Tried all day to sell at a bounce, no bounce came; the little bounce that came I put a limit order to sell 9000 shares at the less than bid, all bids keep disappearing. Never seen such a bagholding. Friday whipsawed on VCLK in premarket for a total loss of about 25K. Back to where I was on March 23 + withdrawals.

No more doing any discretionary trades for some time. I have to address the devils mentioned above: confidence extremely low right now. My automated trades will continue; should spend time trying to automate more things. Got to go.

Code:

Balance B/F:                   		184,581
Loss for the week             		-94,211
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		 90,370
Number of Trades	            	 28
Number of Profitable Trades    	    	 12

Since Inception of Thread   2/25/2007 - 5/18/2007

Balance B/F:                   		 76,636
Net Gain (Less Margin Interest)		 32,734
Cash Withdrawal		       		-19,000
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		 90,370
Number of Trades	           	 327
Number of Profitable Trades        	 207

Expected Balance at this time to be on track for Year-End Target : 
			       127,815
Status:			       Behind Target

Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week

TICKER	ENTRY DATE/TIME		EXIT DATE/TIME		QTY	PURCHASE AMT	SOLD AMT	GAINS		TYPE

CPWR	2007-05-16-12-02-41	2007-05-16-15-59-41	16000	171110		175274.3	4111.6		SHORT
TBSI	2007-05-17-09-40-16	2007-05-17-09-57-36	4375	88633.13	91933		3278.5		SHORT
CRTX	2007-05-14-14-08-38	2007-05-14-15-59-02	90000	257030.1	239802.5	-17291.3	LONG
ICFI	2007-05-14-18-41-26	2007-05-15-14-50-18	9000	228084		180793.7	-47363		LONG

acerbits · May 18, 2007

Code:
Quote from neke:

Weekly Update for week 12 ended 5/18/2007

Awful! Awful!! Awful!!!

I am still trying to figure out what hit me this week. Never did I expect this type of drawdown and this sudden. Made all the mistakes I have warned myself against: averaging on losses, chasing stocks, subjecting myself to be whipsawed. Just summoned up enough courage to post an update here.

On monday chased CRTX, buying it near the top (2.99) and selling much lower. Monday after hours bought a bunch of shares of ICFI after earnings release, thinking the figures and projection were good. Saw it low pre-market tuesday; instead of finding out why, bought a whole lot more at an average of 25.3, sold at 20.10 towards the close of market: Tried all day to sell at a bounce, no bounce came; the little bounce that came I put a limit order to sell 9000 shares at the less than bid, all bids keep disappearing. Never seen such a bagholding. Friday whipsawed on VCLK in premarket for a total loss of about 25K. Back to where I was on March 23 + withdrawals.

No more doing any discretionary trades for some time. I have to address the devils mentioned above: confidence extremely low right now. My automated trades will continue; should spend time trying to automate more things. Got to go.

Code:

Balance B/F: 184,581 Loss for the week -94,211 ------------------------------------------------ Balance C/F: 90,370 Number of Trades 28 Number of Profitable Trades 12 Since Inception of Thread 2/25/2007 - 5/18/2007 Balance B/F: 76,636 Net Gain (Less Margin Interest) 32,734 Cash Withdrawal -19,000 ------------------------------------------------ Balance C/F: 90,370 Number of Trades 327 Number of Profitable Trades 207 Expected Balance at this time to be on track for Year-End Target : 127,815 Status: Behind Target Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAINS TYPE CPWR 2007-05-16-12-02-41 2007-05-16-15-59-41 16000 171110 175274.3 4111.6 SHORT TBSI 2007-05-17-09-40-16 2007-05-17-09-57-36 4375 88633.13 91933 3278.5 SHORT CRTX 2007-05-14-14-08-38 2007-05-14-15-59-02 90000 257030.1 239802.5 -17291.3 LONG ICFI 2007-05-14-18-41-26 2007-05-15-14-50-18 9000 228084 180793.7 -47363 LONG

Geez neke, sorry to hear that. Try to keep harder stops, it really ate up ur gains this week.

sunggong · May 18, 2007

Quote from neke:

Made all the mistakes I have warned myself against: averaging on losses, chasing stocks, subjecting myself to be whipsawed.

Damn, I am truly sorry to hear what happened this week.

I didn't think you would average down again after what happened to DNDN a while back.

That and what appears to be a revenge trading are serious issues, neke. You may win a majority of times but all it takes is one or two that goes against you to wipe you out....

verbotenlaandia · May 18, 2007

Neke, sorry to see you got taken down this week. But you know the drill...you take a hit like that, don't try to be a hero next week and make it all back. In my opinion, lower your position sizes...you've had a number of weeks that were very successful based on that leverage, it only makes sense that you'd eventually see that come against you hard. You're still up a respectable amount for the year though...

scriabinop23 · May 18, 2007

I just experienced a drawdown very similar to this [the past 3 months, and the past 2 weeks]. (similar time frame) Discretionary trading is difficult as hell. Had two particular concentrated trades massively go against me: heavy google long options, and short the crack spread (short rbob against long crude). That crack spread really wiped me out too. Decided to switch from bull to bear 2 weeks ago on RBOB. Sold into weakness on June at 2.20. Bought crude around 63.90. Too much size, and perfectly the worst timing. Within a day or two from entering, RBOB staged a screaming reversal, and we all know it hit 2.44 at the top today. Still in the trade, as I think this thing is overdone. Problem with discretionary trading for me is that my own convictions become my worst enemy.

And tons of other bad trades recently: buying july soybeans from 770 down, bailing in the 740 zone; buying sugar; attempting to short amazon (via puts and stock); buying CME long options; etc etc etc. Just gone cold with all my discretionary trading.

And too, like you, I am working on an automated system right now that is backtesting and walking thru very well. I've been paper testing it on IB with success and looking forward to get it running. Unlike all the guys who don't have the guts to 'take every trade' with their systems, after these drawdowns, I could care less about 'necessary losses' that occur within the context of a trading system. I'll be glad to take them since they are a small part of a bigger and -hopefully- better picture/result.

Looking forward to being 'profitable'. And yes - averaging down, going long decaying positions, and putting too heavy size -- all bad techniques that kill the discretionary trader, I still find very difficult to avoid [after a year of telling myself not to]. I'm thinking the context of an unemotional -intraday only- automated trading system won't allow any of this to happen, and that truthfully I'm just not cut out to discretionarily trade. It seems the even the base hits (not even going for home runs), even though more highly probable to profit with leverage, come far rarer than constantly being on the wrong side of things. At least for me.

Hope this diatribe can provide something of solace to you. good advice to reduce leverage; but its a difficult habit to quit once you pick it up.

Trader KGB · May 18, 2007

Sorry to hear about the bad week Neke. It took strength just to post that recap and I give you credit for that. Given how well you've done, I'm certain you'll make a strong comeback. As others have mentioned, don't try to win it all back in one week, revenge trading never goes well. Go easy on the leverage until things turn around. Best of luck.