TA question often asked... "Do trendlines work"?

[murray t turtle]

I am not endorsing OP's posts on the object. However, discretionary trading is a very personal thing and I find the humble trend line (more accurately a trend ray) and its clones to be a neat tool.

Reference sources are widely known and available. I've read Schabacker, Gann, Elliott, Edwards and Magee, Sperandeo, Hershey and others. But to make it useful, as with any tool, a repeated religious experience in actual practice is required. A lot of money has to be made with it. This is a very personal thing. People who do not have such experience will never trust it or believe it.

Of course, stating that trend lines are useful and showing that they are are two different things. My viewpoint from experience is that no one who actually makes money will make a demonstration in public, or even show charts like the OP.

In any case, I will conclude by saying trend lines are not subjective but are drawn objectively every time according to rules. They are drawn in advance and they are extended into the future ahead of current price.

Happy Thanksgiving.

%%
Good + good thanksgiving.
I draw straight trend lines[rays] on volume, but I like price-trend lines , i find curved trend lines auto drawn , much more useful.[AKA moving averages]
I dont find his 2 year charts useful @ all, I like longer + shorter, charts but each to his or her own. Some profitable traders[extroverted] post charts; its rare , not much reward for risk.
QQQ all ready took out JUL HI + closed above it all week+ today/11/20-28/2023;
so its a good time to sell[exit longs] also Can always get back in if wanted
One of several things fundies are useful for -some sectors have huge %% winners+ some sectors seldom do.

 

[savoir]

%%
Good + good thanksgiving.
I draw straight trend lines[rays] on volume, but I like price-trend lines , i find curved trend lines auto drawn , much more useful.[AKA moving averages]
I dont find his 2 year charts useful @ all, I like longer + shorter, charts but each to his or her own. Some profitable traders[extroverted] post charts; its rare , not much reward for risk.
QQQ all ready took out JUL HI + closed above it all week+ today/11/20-28/2023;
so its a good time to sell[exit longs] also Can always get back in if wanted
One of several things fundies are useful for -some sectors have huge %% winners+ some sectors seldom do.

Hello, murray t. A moving average is just a trend line with less confidence. Good point about monitoring volume. You gave away a secret.

 

[murray t turtle]

Hello, murray t. A moving average is just a trend line with less confidence. Good point about monitoring volume. You gave away a secret.

%%
Good points/
IF only the market moved up only on price blocks + block trades only .
LOL I then may use more straight trend lines LOL
NOT even 100% sure what you mean by rays; I use [handrawn] arrows also, on my charts .
NOt to arrow kill bison,or bears , nothing wrong with bowhunting or a .30-06, or .38-.357 magnum LOL

 

[savoir]

%%
Good points/
IF only the market moved up only on price blocks + block trades only .
LOL I then may use more straight trend lines LOL
NOT even 100% sure what you mean by rays; I use [handrawn] arrows also, on my charts .
NOt to arrow kill bison,or bears , nothing wrong with bowhunting or a .30-06, or .38-.357 magnum LOL

On my charting programs, a ray extends forward only, whereas a line extends both forward and backward. Looking backward is a bad habit.

Never hunted bison or bears. I ate a bison burger once. Very tasty.

 

[VSTscalper]

View attachment 328534

If you combine the system with risk management it doesn't under perform.
By cutting losses and letting the winners run you don't need a better than 50% win rate.
I rarely have over 50%, but my R/R makes up for lots of small losses. Draw downs are minimal.
The goal at the end of the day is to increase your capital.

It is great to see someone talking about Managing Risk. If traders put their Focus - on Managing Risk - they would have a much better chance of becoming a Successful Trader.

Here are a few snapshots to show what I am talking about. The most important picture for me - is "Total Trade Analysis". Look at the - "Percent Profitable" - which is only 19.37%. Then look at the following comparison - "Average Winning Trade - Average Losing Trade". Then - the "Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss". Again - it is all about Controlling Risk.

The other pictures - are just to show the results. Look at the Chart picture - see all the Breakeven trades. The point is - if a trader can Manage Risk - they have a much better chance of becoming a successful trader.

Just think about all the Breakeven trades - rather than Big Drawdowns and Big Losses. Sure - you would be Losing Commission on each trade - but that is MUCH better - psychologically. I firmly believe - most traders end up going out of business - because they haven't learned how to CONTROL their Losses.

Just noticed some new trades - see the difference.

 

[VSTscalper]

On my charting programs, a ray extends forward only, whereas a line extends both forward and backward. Looking backward is a bad habit.

Never hunted bison or bears. I ate a bison burger once. Very tasty.

We had Bison meat - in our grade school and high school. I grew up about 15 miles - from the National Bison Range in Western Montana. Yes - very good meat - if cooked right.

Many years ago - I took my lady - from a big city - to the Bison Range. We saw Deer - Elk - and a hell of a lot of Bison. You can drive thru the Range - don't recall - but over 10 miles - up and down. Near the end - coming back to the Main Entrance - there were maybe 100 or more Bison near the road. For me - not a big problem - by the way - no fence between them and the road. Well - we stopped to watch them for awhile - and it was Mating season. There was a Big Bull - maybe 50 feet or so - from our car. You could tell - he was the Boss - LOL. Well - he had a few females near him - then all of a sudden - he turns - and snorts a few times - and looks straight at us - a look that said - "get the hell out of here" - I have duties to perform. It scared the hell out of my lady. I told her - I think he is interested in YOU - bad dumbass thing to say on my part.

 

[tomas262]

View attachment 328534

View attachment 328530
View attachment 328531

good work, really

 

[murray t turtle]

On my charting programs, a ray extends forward only, whereas a line extends both forward and backward. Looking backward is a bad habit.

Never hunted bison or bears. I ate a bison burger once. Very tasty.

%%
Venison is much more practical for me. But looks like all here understand ''wild''; some cant seem to grasp that simple concept +get gored to death
In my 4 cylinder, same way with 8, auto;
my windshield is bigger than my rearview mirror. I use both + side views
In some cultures that herd boss interest may be a sincere compliment; sorry, cant hit 100% all the time LOL .

 

[comagnum]

Back-testing optimized to the max is the crack in trading. A return like this can pay off the national debt & corner the words money supply in no time. Anyone that can do just 1% of this for 2 years is the alpha of market wizards.

Starting with $25K @ 2,474% per month compounded:
Year 1 $2,114,669,587,714,230,500,000
Year 2 $178,873,098,608,138,900,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Year 3 $15,130,300,067,473,600,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

 

[VSTscalper]

We lived at the base of Mission Mountain Wilderness - you could not build behind our house. We had Deer - Elk - Moose - Grizzly Bears on our property. It was a little scary when I was a kid - we didn't have an Indoor Bathroom - just an Outhouse. As kids - we had to learn how to use a Gun - at an early age - just to go to the Outhouse - which was 50 to 75 feet away from the house. We weren't Rich - we only had a Two Hole Outhouse - there was a couple large families - that had Four Hole Outhouses - richer people. Where I lived - there was a saying - a Family that Shits together - Stays together.

Love Venison - Elk - and Moose. We had a Natural Spring - up the Mountain a short distance - had a Cistern (underground tank). From the Spring to our house - it was about a 400 foot drop - water pressure was unbelievable - NO Pump.

We lived at the Base of the Mountain - just a short distance North - from where this picture was taken.