TA question often asked... "Do trendlines work"?

[VSTscalper]

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Back-testing optimized to the max is the crack in trading. A return like this can pay off the national debt & corner the words money supply in no time. Anyone that can do just 1% of this for 2 years is the alpha of market wizards.

Starting with $25K @ 2,474% per month compounded:
Year 1 $2,114,669,587,714,230,500,000
Year 2 $178,873,098,608,138,900,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Year 3 $15,130,300,067,473,600,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

Damn - I guess I am not trading this correctly. I don't trade as much anymore - but when I do - it is for a Maximum of 2 Hours - early morning. I have some big clients that use my Algos. See the picture below - while I do trade one of my Algos at times - I much prefer this setup - keeps my very old Brain working. Seriously - I like Discretionary trading. It is very relaxing with this chart setup.

And - there is absolutely NO BACKTESTING. The Algos are Black Boxed - nothing to Backtest - even if I wanted too.

The Candlesticks - Top and Bottom are the same - but on the Bottom chart - the Green and Red Dots - are what happens on each Bar. The Dots - are based on One Tick - Range Bars - that I made many years ago. With this Setup - I can see Patterns - on the One Tick Range Bar - such as Head and Shoulder - and others. And - believe it or not - my favorite Setup - is when Price goes SIDEWAYS. Before I developed this - I used to lose a lot of money in a Sideways Market. Now - I love seeing the Market go Sideways. Been using this very simple setup for years. Once I started getting rid of Indicators - my trading improved considerably. By the way - my Algos are based on Price Action ONLY and they were Developed - based on the Bottom part of the chart. I only look back - One Bar - don't care what happened before that.

As usual - I talk too much - sorry if anyone is bored.

 

[VSTscalper]

I just sat back down - and noticed Price was in a Range Condition. It actually started before I left - but - if I had been here - I would have "Declared" - a Range Condition - about 15:00 - Pacific Time - see the Top of the previous chart.

There are so damn many great Scalp trades available in this current Range Condition. I drew the Box around the Range Condition - and a Centerline. I will leave it on the chart overnight - so if there is anyone who wants to come into a Trading Room in the MORNING - I will open up a Zoom Link. Please send me a Private Message in ET. I promise I will NOT try to sell anything to anyone - LOL. This setup is so Simple. I have often made my Net Daily Goal - just trading inside a Range Condition. You might be surprised how many Contracts are Traded - on EACH of those Red and Green Dots.

I had to Squeeze the Red and Green Dots together - to show the Range Box on Top and Bottom. The Green and Red Candlesticks on the Bottom - are the same as on the Top. By the way - this is a 7 Tick Range Bar - my favorite.

As I type this - Price is still in a Range Condition. I will leave this chart to show - tomorrow - if any trader is interested. I have seen Range Conditions last for over 1 hour - during the day. In the evening - the ES is much slower - and staying in a RC much longer.

And - guess what - there are NO ALGOS needed - any trader should be able to do this.

 

[semperfrosty]

We lived at the base of Mission Mountain Wilderness - you could not build behind our house. We had Deer - Elk - Moose - Grizzly Bears on our property. It was a little scary when I was a kid - we didn't have an Indoor Bathroom - just an Outhouse. As kids - we had to learn how to use a Gun - at an early age - just to go to the Outhouse - which was 50 to 75 feet away from the house. We weren't Rich - we only had a Two Hole Outhouse - there was a couple large families - that had Four Hole Outhouses - richer people. Where I lived - there was a saying - a Family that Shits together - Stays together.

Love Venison - Elk - and Moose. We had a Natural Spring - up the Mountain a short distance - had a Cistern (underground tank). From the Spring to our house - it was about a 400 foot drop - water pressure was unbelievable - NO Pump.

We lived at the Base of the Mountain - just a short distance North - from where this picture was taken.View attachment 328539

Wow!

 

[murray t turtle]

We lived at the base of Mission Mountain Wilderness - you could not build behind our house. We had Deer - Elk - Moose - Grizzly Bears on our property. It was a little scary when I was a kid - we didn't have an Indoor Bathroom - just an Outhouse. As kids - we had to learn how to use a Gun - at an early age - just to go to the Outhouse - which was 50 to 75 feet away from the house. We weren't Rich - we only had a Two Hole Outhouse - there was a couple large families - that had Four Hole Outhouses - richer people. Where I lived - there was a saying - a Family that Shits together - Stays together.

Love Venison - Elk - and Moose. We had a Natural Spring - up the Mountain a short distance - had a Cistern (underground tank). From the Spring to our house - it was about a 400 foot drop - water pressure was unbelievable - NO Pump.

We lived at the Base of the Mountain - just a short distance North - from where this picture was taken.View attachment 328539

%%
COOL/in every sense of the word.
King Solomon said a woman is like a deer[supersensitive, sights smells sounds=wow that explains a lot] Elk herds growing in south now, may not have time to hunt them\ much less gut 'em.........
I got to grow up around TN ,AR, MS.[Black bear was rare somewhat, LOL not a racial statement] Hunted squirrel ,doves ducks, wood ducks mallards any ducks, deer , quail ,rabbits with beagles. Target shoots a lot [.22 short, long .22 long rifle]with dad, mom, sis, bro+ Indian . Had to learn 10 commandments of gun safety=letter perfect. Dad= NRA Life .me 2.
Browning shotgun ad says ''ask a Browning owner'' I did + he said ''wish he had bought a Remington 1100 '' /had several of those LOL

 

[VSTscalper]

%%
COOL/in every sense of the word.
King Solomon said a woman is like a deer[supersensitive, sights smells sounds=wow that explains a lot] Elk herds growing in south now, may not have time to hunt them\ much less gut 'em.........
I got to grow up around TN ,AR, MS.[Black bear was rare somewhat, LOL not a racial statement] Hunted squirrel ,doves ducks, wood ducks mallards any ducks, deer , quail ,rabbits with beagles. Target shoots a lot [.22 short, long .22 long rifle]with dad, mom, sis, bro+ Indian . Had to learn 10 commandments of gun safety=letter perfect. Dad= NRA Life .me 2.
Browning shotgun ad says ''ask a Browning owner'' I did + he said ''wish he had bought a Remington 1100 '' /had several of those LOL

We had 100 plus acres - up against the Wilderness - nothing could be built behind us. Our address was - "end of the - "name here" - trail we lived on" - we didn't have a Box Number. You could always tell when their was a Grizzly in the area - because all the other big game animals would disappear - and the Crows would really be making a lot of noise. The main thing was - you didn't want to get caught in the Outhouse when there was a Grizzly nearby. We were not far from Glacier National Park. One other animal you had to be careful around - was a Moose. I would almost want to see a Grizzly nearby - than a Moose - especially during the Rut.

I had the same .22's. Also - Remington 1100 shotgun - Browning 410 gauge Over/Under - Parker Hale 270 and 30.06 - Weatherby 300 Magnum and a 340 Magnum (better hold it correctly - or you end up on the ground and have an bruised arm that is sore for a week or more) - and several Handguns.

Also did a lot of Duck - Pheasant - and Goose hunting. Much rather eat Pheasant.

Again - I talk too much.

Have a great day.

 

[HawaiianIceberg]

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It is great to see someone talking about Managing Risk. If traders put their Focus - on Managing Risk - they would have a much better chance of becoming a Successful Trader.

Here are a few snapshots to show what I am talking about. The most important picture for me - is "Total Trade Analysis". Look at the - "Percent Profitable" - which is only 19.37%. Then look at the following comparison - "Average Winning Trade - Average Losing Trade". Then - the "Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss". Again - it is all about Controlling Risk.

The other pictures - are just to show the results. Look at the Chart picture - see all the Breakeven trades. The point is - if a trader can Manage Risk - they have a much better chance of becoming a successful trader.

Just think about all the Breakeven trades - rather than Big Drawdowns and Big Losses. Sure - you would be Losing Commission on each trade - but that is MUCH better - psychologically. I firmly believe - most traders end up going out of business - because they haven't learned how to CONTROL their Losses.

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Just noticed some new trades - see the difference.

Aloha VSTscalper!

Incredible results and congrats on your work! You’re one of the few on ET who’s offered a lot of free guidance (for many years). A big mahalo for your time.

I hope you don’t mind me asking, but are these trades that were placed in a live account?

-Mark

 

[HawaiianIceberg]

I agree with @semperfrosty.
I'd draw the trendlines as below.
With your *trendline*, if one of the 2 fractals to the left were slightly higher/lower, the *trendline* would be in a completely different location to the right.
Not saying it's wrong though as I see others draw it that way also.

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I would draw these TLs the exact same way

@tomas262 , looking at the TL you drew and in general… you won’t typically have such a big move down followed by only a small attempt to retrace the channel. That’s a hint a TL probably isn’t drawn well.

 

[NoahA]

Everyone needs to realize that none of the charts VSTscalper shows are real trades taken in the market. The fills would be impossible. Where he claims his algo can get out break even, if you were trading live, you would not get a fill. He has tried for years now to "help" people, but there is no proof of live results or live trades.

Everybody, wake up!

 

[VSTscalper]

I would draw these TLs the exact same way

@tomas262 , looking at the TL you drew and in general… you won’t typically have such a big move down followed by only a small attempt to retrace the channel. That’s a hint a TL probably isn’t drawn well.

Go to the First Page - Second Post - of my old Thread - see how I do Trendlines. This is what I call - "Walking the Trendline". I use the Open of the Bar - the Right Corner Edge to draw the lines. I found that to be much better than the High or Low. By - "Walking the Trendline" - I could see how much room I had for Price to move Up or Down - before it hits the NEXT Trendline - so I would know whether I should Scalp - or possibly get into a Scalp_Trend combination trade.

Old thread:
Scalping_My Way with ACV

As far as Support and Resistance goes - I also use the Open of the Bar - NOT the High or Low.

 

[HawaiianIceberg]

As far as Support and Resistance goes - I also use the Open of the Bar - NOT the High or Low.

I do almost the same, but use closes. I see the s/r “zone” as the area where wicks previous extended.

I often draw the same way for TLs. If you only look at closes, you aren’t concerned with a wick breaking the TL. Looking only at bar bodies opened up my eyes a bit