Sweden

[luisHK]

Sweden is at 85,000 US equivalent deaths.
30% more than the US.

Based on Sweden we can way US lockdowns have saved 20,000 deaths.

UK has not been so lucky.

Nah, one will have to check in a few months, once the lockdowns have been lifted in the US and life there has been similar to Sweden's for a while. Last I checked the virus hadn t hit hard yet some parts of the US, but the same can probably be said about Sweden

 

[southall]

Nah, one will have to check in a few months, once the lockdowns have been lifted in the US and life there has been similar to Sweden's for a while

Some say sweden will eventually hit 10,000 deaths this year. That will be same as 320,000 US.

 

[luisHK]

Some say sweden will eventually hit 10,000 deaths this year. That will be 320,000 US.

Dunno, don t even know who is "some", it is early to estimate how many if any lives the lockdowns have saved. One would need to add in the cost of the lockdown, just in non coronavirus human deaths it might be heavy and just a small part of it.

 

[southall]

Dunno, don t even know who is "some", it is early to estimate how many if any lives the lockdowns have saved. One would need to add in the cost of the lockdown, just in non coronavirus human deaths it might be heavy and just a small part of it.

Countries like Sweden, New Zealand have a huge psychological advantage vs the US.

Same for Denmark, Finland, Norway and many other countries. But they are not using it.

The advantage was the smaller population. And absolute number of deaths.

10,000 deaths in Sweden doesn't sound that bad.
But 320,000 US deaths feels traumatic.
Even though both numbers are the same per capita.

Lockdowns will have to be lifted soon. Cant go on like this. Even if it means the US death count will exceed 100K.


The analogy is trading.

1% of 10,000 equity is $100

1% of 100,000 is $1,000.

For most people $1,000 loss feels a lot worse. Even if the persons total net worth is 10 times more.

 

[wrbtrader]

You are right, flattening the curve doesn't mean less death if everyone eventually get the disease. You reduce the death by making sure the virus dies out and only a limited number get it.

The benefits of flattening the curve:

1. Reduce the demand for healthcare so hospitals do not get overwhelmed.

2. Hope it will only infect a small number instead of all the population.

3. Buy time to find a treatment/cure.

Glad someone understands this. Hopefully, the curve can be on a steep decline prior to the arrival of the flu season (I believe in December).

Can't imagine the hospitals trying to deal with both the Flu patients and Coronavirus patients. They just don't have the capacity for such...it will be overwhelming.

wrbtrader

 

[luisHK]

Countries like Sweden, New Zealand have a huge psychological advantage vs the US.

Same for Denmark, Finland, Norway and many other countries. But they are not using it.

The advantage was the smaller population. And absolute number of deaths.

10,000 deaths in Sweden doesn't sound that bad.
But 320,000 US deaths feels traumatic.
Even though both numbers are the same per capita.

Lockdowns will have to be lifted soon. Cant go on like this. Even if it means the US death count will exceed 100K.


The analogy is trading.

1% of 10,000 equity is $100

1% of 100,000 is $1,000.

For most people $1,000 loss feels a lot worse. Even if the persons total net worth is 10 times more.

Yes, I´m keen on thinking in percentages rather than absolute numbers but that makes sense, a lot of people are being too emotional.
Besides read in an article about Sweden today that Finland officials are worried the virus hasn´t spread much yet there and they are still far from the peak. An issue with early lockdowns.

 

[luisHK]

Not sure you guys have noticed it, pretty old news but still funny. Unfortunately we can´t hope for numbers from Bielorrussia to be trustworthy. Last I checked the country didn´t lock down, rather their president gave the advice below :

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-belarus-urges-citizens-to-drink-vodka-visit-saunas.html

 

[apdxyk]

Our local hospital is begging people to come to ER if necessary. Serious layoffs among medical staff here

 

[ironchef]

Update of total projected death from U of Washington. Contrasting Norway and Sweden:

Total projected death: Noway = 272; Sweden = 17337

One country practices lockdown and social distancing, the other doesn't. Guess which is which.

 

[ironchef]

Our local hospital is begging people to come to ER if necessary. Serious layoffs among medical staff here

Your state practice lockdown and social distancing?