Surf's Special Situation Journal

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Quote from marketsurfer:

It's subjective at this point, unfortunately. Price Driver trading remains a work in progress. No, by D Day I meant the outside band of the Price Driver being correct on a time scale. Sure, book analysis is one of the Price Drivers. Basically anything that occurs prior to trades taking place can be a Price Driver--- We believe that once a trade takes place and price is printed-- it's too late and analyzing past prices via charts is futile when determining directional bias

surf
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That's where the flaw is in your theory. You believe that pre-trade action is valid while past-trade action is not.

But in reality ANY objective information you see and are able to analyze is past, never a future (unless you are a psychic/prophet who can read it :) ).

Series of past trades can be too late... but only if the whole move is limited to this series, which means your original analysis of the potential move was incorrect.

Correct TA shows you odds of potential continuation move. In this sense some action occurred is the clue that move is likely just starting... remember, we ALWAYS analyze PAST. If you see airplane taking off is it past data? Yes it is! Can you tell what usually happens after plane takes off? :)
 
Quote from cornixforex:

T
Correct TA shows you odds of potential continuation move. In this sense some action occurred is the clue that move is likely just starting... remember, we ALWAYS analyze PAST. If you see airplane taking off is it past data? Yes it is! Can you tell what usually happens after plane takes off? :)
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There you go again misusing terms like odds, potential, continuation. odds can be quantified, therefore what pattern or moves, or series of moves increase the odds that the "continuation" will be in the same direction? You or no other TA person can answer this--- magical thinking couched in scientific language can fool even the most erudite person at times.

Your opinion of past data is also wrong. In a trading case, everything is relative to the execution-- past data occurs after the execution, data compiled prior to the execution is not past data when speaking within the time frame of a trade.

Why cant this "action" be quantified?

surf
 
really surf, I wouldn't try to get into a discussion with cornixforex, I know him personally and he is both a great trader and he is your intellectual superior ... while you keep on gambling in the markets cornixforex knows both how to analyse them and trade them in practice succesfully ...
 
Quote from cvds16:

really surf, I wouldn't try to get into a discussion with cornixforex, I know him personally and he is both a great trader and he is your intellectual superior ... while you keep on gambling in the markets cornixforex knows both how to analyse them and trade them in practice succesfully ...
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i am not surprised, as i said before i am use to being the dumbest and poorest guy in the room-- even in my own home.

well, then he should answer my basic questions about his earlier clearly flawed statements. surf

PS.. I took a train from Paris to Erasmus U in rotterdam several months ago for a financial stability conference--- traveled thru your country-- beautiful countryside! surf
 
it is a beautifull country ... :)
I can't answer in cornixforex place however, I will leave that to him ... and I am sure he will ... but he is probably celebrating new year at this moment as he lives in Russia ... ;-)
I still wonder why you don't believe in technical analysis, it's the only thing that really works imo ... and yes, it takes immense amount of effort to really learn how to do it properly ... just like any skill in life ...
 
Quote from cvds16:

although I can't speak for cornixforex you might find both of my recent posts interesting ... cornixforex uses a different brand of technical analysis from mine ... there are many ways to skin this cat ...
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3713272#post3713272
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3713263#post3713263
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I think its clear you would see the same results with random entries--- looks like your method is heavily money management based. It would be easy to quantify TA if it actually provided an edge--- if its anything for trading, its a subjective art, not an objective science. surf
 
my entries aren't random, they are very very precise entries (I use pipettes to measure my entries), losses do happen, but are very small. It's all very context related, something you can't quantify ... a computer couldn't trade the way I trade ... but it seems I won't be able to convince you ... it's a petty ... once again, even in all this noise today in euro, I am having a nice day ... and yes, it took me quite some years to be able to do it properly ... just as it took me quite some years to learn how to become an option market maker (where I never used charts) ...
I must admit what I do I am only really able to do intraday ... maybe some day I might find the clue to trading overnight, although I can see the same setups apply, it's just harder (way harder) to manage properly with the way I use technical analysis ...
 
Quote from cvds16:

my entries aren't random, they are very very precise entries (I use pipettes to measure my entries), losses do happen, but are very small. It's all very context related, something you can't quantify ... a computer couldn't trade the way I trade ... but it seems I won't be able to convince you ... it's a petty ... once again, even in all this noise today in euro, I am having a nice day ... and yes, it took me quite some years to be able to do it properly ... just as it took me quite some years to learn how to become an option market maker (where I never used charts) ...
I must admit what I do I am only really able to do intraday ... maybe some day I might find the clue to trading overnight, although I can see the same setups apply, it's just harder (way harder) to manage properly with the way I use technical analysis ...
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if a computer cant do it, its a subjective method. If you have a special gift of reading the market ( like everyone on et, it seems) i have no argument with you. Although i have never seen evidence of TA savants using intuition to read charts, I cant unequivocally say they do not exist-- actually the anecdotal evidence is quite strong on elite trader--- just read my critics!

There is no objective proof of TA working, in fact the evidence is heavily weighted the other way,

Once again, why is TA heavily pushed by FX dealers who profit when you lose but not taught by prop firms like bright who profit when you keep trading?? the answer is sooo obvious! surf

PS-- i was fortunate enough to trade with an option arbitrage firm for the last several months when one could still interexchange arb-- that was a real edge!
 
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