Surf's Special Situation Journal

marketsurfer · Dec 31, 2012

brothers and sisters, if you are not already LONG the market here, its not too late to jump on the train --- I am a super bull going into 2013--there is explosive upside potential with tremendous amount of money waiting to be deployed-- for sure I was early, but conviction remains strong. happy new year! surf

sculptor66 · Dec 31, 2012

Quote from marketsurfer:

brothers and sisters, if you are not already LONG the market here, its not too late to jump on the train --- I am a super bull going into 2013--there is explosive upside potential with tremendous amount of money waiting to be deployed-- for sure I was early, but conviction remains strong. happy new year! surf

Thanks, but I prefer to trade based on probabilities, not conviction.

Happy New Year too!

marketsurfer · Dec 31, 2012

Quote from sculptor66:

Thanks, but I prefer to trade based on probabilities, not conviction.

Happy New Year too!

how do you calculate your probabilities? Unfortunately, without quantifying the term exactly, probability is meaningless.

surf

marketsurfer · Dec 31, 2012

Oh yeah, we have broke even on the trade-- holding here for the RIDE HIGHER! surf

cygnetnoir · Dec 31, 2012

Quote from marketsurfer:

There you go again misusing terms like odds, potential, continuation. odds can be quantified, therefore what pattern or moves, or series of moves increase the odds that the "continuation" will be in the same direction?

In your opinion, how does trading compare to blackjack, poker, and sports betting? Do you allow odds and probability to factor into those games?

cygnetnoir · Dec 31, 2012

Quote from marketsurfer:

There is no objective proof of TA working, in fact the evidence is heavily weighted the other way,

What would constitute such proof? When you were daytrading the combine, were you trading based on TA, or were you using price driver analysis to place intraday trades?

marketsurfer · Dec 31, 2012

Quote from cygnetnoir:

What would constitute such proof? When you were daytrading the combine, were you trading based on TA, or were you using price driver analysis to place intraday trades?

just randomly guessing--- i was doing it for article material and to show my support for what I think is a good idea.

surf

icarus618 · Dec 31, 2012

Quote from marketsurfer:

brothers and sisters, if you are not already LONG the market here, its not too late to jump on the train --- I am a super bull going into 2013--there is explosive upside potential with tremendous amount of money waiting to be deployed-- for sure I was early, but conviction remains strong. happy new year! surf

LOL...Dude, you crack me up. Happy new year!

marketsurfer · Dec 31, 2012

Quote from icarus618:

LOL...Dude, you crack me up. Happy new year!

thanks, man! happy new year to you.

up about 40 points here, 900 plus to go as the super bull unfolds in early 2013.....

Don't fear, surf is here to guide the way into 2013.

newwurldmn · Dec 31, 2012

Quote from cygnetnoir:

In your opinion, how does trading compare to blackjack, poker, and sports betting? Do you allow odds and probability to factor into those games?

blackjack and poker are closed systems with defined probabilities even if the information presented to you isn't perfect.

sports betting and markets aren't closed systems. If you were privvy to every congressional meeting (public, private, and secret) on the Fiscal Cliff could you come up with probabilities on going over? Or would those probabilities still be basically made up?