Surf's Special Situation Journal

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Quote from cygnetnoir:

You will use price/volume information as it appears in the order book prior to those levels being traded, but you would disregard that same information once it is traded through? Does this not give a higher weight to potential market activity than actual market activity? And do you thus discount, if not outright ignore price trends and momentum? And what of bids/offers in the book but away from the market that get lifted immediately prior to the market trading those levels. Does this not make it more likely that you would base decisions on what is at best information meant to mislead?

Yes, that is a part of the Price Driver system-- following the big money and how it uses deception is a key factor. Yes, ignoring trends is also part of the system. Untill one can quantify how many moves in one direction increase the odds of the next move being in the same or different direction, I don't get the point of charting past price--- remember, the book is only one factor in the system it is the combination of factors that provides the bias for a sharp move. surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

We believe that once a trade takes place and price is printed-- it's too late and analyzing past prices via charts is futile when determining directional bias

surf

And that my dear Watson is where you are wrong wrong wrong!!!
..carry on...
 
Quote from sellindexvol66:

Surf, if price drivers were a real edge you would not be yapping on et about them. You have to be paid to be here to entertain us. you simply cannot be for real I have concluded..other than real entertainment.

This thread should move to chit chat..for clear reasons.

They are still a work in progress--- surf
 
Quote from icarus618:

You are a funny dude, Surfy. I do enjoy the banter most of the time. Alas, all things must pass, so I'll leave this place to real traders like yourself. I am done with message boards until 2014.

I like to give up a habit every year to shake things up a bit. One year it was coffee, another year it was meat. I am curious to see what will fill the space.

Good luck in 2013.


Good luck to you also! surf:D
 
Quote from Lucrum:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't we seen this before?
IF your "drivers" have any intrinsic value/edge. Wouldn't you be better off buying a put and a call, as opposed to an outright directional play.

Yes, in retrospect, your way, or a channel break system without a directional bias when the price drivers say enter would have made short term sense--- but its not over till its over. surf
happy new year!
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

They are still a work in progress--- surf

If u really have said YM..why not just swing the position..consider adding on defined spots surely you can take the heat. In any case, I'm long the market and taking the heat..good luck if you are really trading.
 
Truthfully, I am very nervous at this level. This is a larger drawdown than I expected from this position--- i am going to continue to hold into Wednesday at the least--- believe it or not, the Price Drivers are still heavily bullish slanted----holding here. surf:eek:


Chart for illustration purposes only-- note entry level, and current level

1z53lzl.jpg
 
There are some blunders you make here surf.
Live trading a system without having some kind of prior proof it works / not having a back tested calculated edge
Placing a 10 lot while experimenting.
Price Drives are 'Subjective'.
'Ignoring trend' on a longer term trading system- that's too funny.

Ok, a suggestion re trend, When you entered, the price had already run up a considerable amount - above average on historical norms.
Your entry should have been made on a pullback. Your move is characteristic of a Noobs error - impatience.
You could be correct on your analysis that price will go to the moon, but your timing is lousy.

I / we give you credit for posting on the forum and being more or less open with your thoughts.
Whether you learn from the feedback - well that's another story and it's not looking good.
 
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